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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)

    18z GFS operational producing a special run. One that would have us moaning that its too frozen and that we cant go anywhere. Oh wait, its lockdown!

    Seriously cold inland Wales and CET zone and Scotland, not getting above freezing from the blizzard at 162hours to 186hours onwards, however 2m temps affected by this lying snow, cold - potentially frozen nonetheless.

    This run is much better than the runs in the middle of the day such as the 06z and 12z as it brings back the colder airmass coming out of northern Scandanavia (-8c 850s and colder). A better through route of the cold from northern Siberia to Scandinavia to UK. Any colder than this and we might be saying be careful what you wish for, despite being cold weather fans. All a variation on the direction of travel anyway. 

     

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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

    You're not wrong Blue.  It's gone absolutely bonkers late on

    image.thumb.png.822c86246a428e790335139526827f34.png

    That lot can't miss us..... surely???

    I think that even us Essex folk might see the odd flake from that chart onwards

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Not sure if this is the best place to discuss the Thursday short-range model evolution, but from what I can see, most likely result is mixed snow and sleet in parts of north-central England, rain changing to sleet and ending as a brief interval of snow further south. Could imagine it staying all rain in London with the urban heating just enough of a factor, mixtures further out of the city, significant snowfalls on hills. But further north it should be capable of giving scattered 3-5 cm falls, will be rather prone to mixing even there too. 

    Certainly the low loses a lot of thickness rapidly after leaving Ireland or as it forms over Wales however you want to look at the timing on that early Thursday, so there will be a tendency for winds to back to northeast where charts might suggest southeast in eastern England. Whether that pulls in any colder air or just changes the reasons for mixing remains to be seen. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 minute ago, Mucka said:

    Poor GFS 18z with only marginal ice days of between 0C and -4C

    We need -5C by day and -10C by night to have a chance of snow.

    It would feel quite balmy in the South in a slack flow.

    Plenty of time for that to improve Mucka, nearer the time as I am sure you know. As ever let’s get the right 500hPa pattern first, despite knowing it has already failed us once this winter.  Surely we can’t hit tails twice on the run.  Lol and I know the probability reply so don’t say it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
    1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

    The Iberian heights are spoiling it again. Complete rain fest for most as that low slides in. It’s not even marginal!

    Please change your name to DJdoomandgloom. Simple 2 lows don't join in hand in hand the cold and snow will come.

     

    The only thing consistent on every run is your one line whining and I can't even ignore  you as on my phone. Enjoy the ride mate the charts compared to last year are chalk and cheese.

    Edited by snowangel32
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    Just now, chionomaniac said:

    Plenty of time for that to improve Mucka, nearer the time as I am sure you know. As ever let’s get the right 500hPa pattern first, despite knowing it has already failed us once this winter.  Surely we can’t hit tails twice on the run.  Lol and I know the probability reply so don’t say it!

    It was just some cheeky self therapy and sarcasm.

    There have been some very reasonable posts about how direct the flow will be and how much cold air we can draw South but a lot of nonsense as well.

    Tomorrow will be a big day. We should at least be able to put one if not both of the phasing dramas to bed and then it will be time to start analysing how cold for how long etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton
  • Location: Nuneaton

    I always like to keep a eye on what the jet is doing. From T180 it is always south of the UK on the GFS with the odd incursion across South/central uk. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, Eskimo said:

    Aint gonna happen is it. When was the last time we saw 24 hours of heavy snow?

    image.thumb.png.160dbe51400b0ba8f367870941e46877.png
     

    Feb 1991?

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    3 hours ago, Timmytour said:

    I'm getting the Stellas in ready for the pub run.....

    I didn't bring enough!  Lovely run

    27 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    That stubborn low between Scotland and Norway from Weds next week really irks me by stopping the extreme cold over northern Scandi from heading SW to the UK, A lee low that forms from the dense cold air descended from the mountainous terrain of Norway.

    Other than that, looking good on the 18z GFS, plenty of disturbances moving inland and convection over sea to bring snow opportunities and a locked in pattern with the Greenland block and dense deep cold over NE Europe, we could be kept in the freezer until end of January at least, if the arctic high and influence of Greenland block could push further into Norwegian Sea and northern Scandi - we could see some of that deep cold reach us eventually too.

    Isn't this a pretty common occurrence during winters or am I just imagining things?  I seem to remember often looking at a runs when there was deep cold looking like it was heading our way from that direction only for it to stick rigidly to the Norwegian coast. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    Well, NOAA doing its best to cheer up the cold brigade 6-10 and 8-14

     

    The push south of those iberian heights in the 8-14 is encouraging John

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    Just wondered if anyone remembered one of the 18z GFSv runs about 10 days ago. We had a great run showing long fetch north easterlies way out at T+300, and true to form they were gone in the morning. 
    Fast forward a few days and these reappear at T+240, now they’re within 170. It’s almost been like a countdown with a few bumps along the way. Overall the pattern is very favourable. The best model watching for years. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW Wales
  • Location: NW Wales
    Just now, Paul_1978 said:

    Just wondered if anyone remembered one of the 18z GFSv runs about 10 days ago. We had a great run showing long fetch north easterlies way out at T+300, and true to form they were gone in the morning. 
    Fast forward a few days and these reappear at T+240, now they’re within 170. It’s almost been like a countdown with a few bumps along the way. Overall the pattern is very favourable. The best model watching for years. 

    Could it be classic cold spell dropped only to be picked up again at much shorter time frame? I always seem to remember this being said by the experienced posters in years passed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    i know this is a pretty pointless post, but if this landed at T384 on GFS 18z, most of you would go crazy:

    46EB6D36-DE94-4928-9AA3-FF43F7466E13.thumb.png.7fdd0e031693a53a9ef4b669a3dea560.pngBFA6904D-AB2A-4BCF-B2CB-5B5916A29B69.thumb.png.c39251968d19b3da5c65be47177d0725.png

    Interestingly the agonised cat face is present on both charts.   That must mean something is brewing...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    13 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

    Please change your name to DJdoomandgloom. Simple 2 lows don't join in hand in hand the cold and snow will come.

     

    The only thing consistent on every run is your one line whining and I can't even ignore  you as on my phone. Enjoy the ride mate the charts compared to last year are chalk and cheese.

    Trust me, I want cold. Maybe I was a bit premature with that earlier post.

    It’s not a case of whining, but trying to keep expectations grounded. We are still not guaranteed a very cold spell, despite the amazing GFS 18z in FI.

    There are still things that could go wrong in the more immediate period. But I’m more optimistic than this time yesterday.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    GEFS look good at day 10. The opp does have support so it I don't expect it to be a wild outlier. Obviously there are less attractive options on offer (as must be expected). Caution still needed but no doubt its a good end to the day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

    A rain/snow mix shifting Southeast on Thursday. Short term output changing quite quickly! Although, I wouldn't be expecting a great deal the further South you are..

    1266173490_viewimage(4).thumb.png.2f52937f470eb4ff6a980733d72ea525.png 52039709_viewimage(5).thumb.png.24d8198fdd66e5fb3557a14aca8cbbef.png 1386290901_viewimage(6).thumb.png.195fcbbae4ddad51d191841dd90cefc8.png

    Interesting.

    This is a good 3 or 4 hours quicker than the other hi-res models. More in line with the met office thinking of thingd before they pushed the time back and the warnings out

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    Trust me, I want cold. Maybe I was a bit premature with that earlier post.

    It’s not a case of whining, but trying to keep expectations grounded. We are still not guaranteed a very cold spell, despite the amazing GFS 18z in FI.

    There are still things that could go wrong in the more immediate period. But I’m more optimistic than this time yesterday.

    Got to keep the positivity mate and look at the runs combined with the mean and ens.

     

    Tomorrow morning I think the phase low Saga will be resolved. I was also a bit harsh so apologise for that. Let's hope we all get a Snowy Nirvana and the forum will be buzzing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Interesting.

    This is a good 3 or 4 hours quicker than the other hi-res models. More in line with the met office thinking of thingd before they pushed the time back and the warnings out

    This is going to be a nightmare for the Met to predict. Trend today has been to shift it south and west. Tomorrow it will end up in Wales lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff

    There are some insane perturbations on the 18z.  The OP absolutely off the hook calling for minus 9/12 in Wales  by the end of it.  Surely just still processing a significant ssw? 
     

    BUT, while there are swings the overall trend remains freezing

    A85852C2-050B-45E5-8CFC-63437CBE8212.png

    Edited by Day_9
    Forgot to attach cherry picked chart.
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    Posted
  • Location: South Warwickshire
  • Location: South Warwickshire
    3 hours ago, Malcolm Edwards said:

    That interesting regarding gulls moving inland. I too have noticed some rare birds appearing here in marazion. Sign of things to come? 

    There was a Little Egret in the garden here two days ago. Never seen one this far inland before. 
     

    It was easy to spot being pure white, I just hope that next time I see it I don’t, if you know what I mean 😳😳

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene

    Well ive had two days off because you get sick of putting your point across and having it ripped apart but we are now seeing some consensus between the ECM and GFS.

    A lot of crap model runs in between a lot over reaction and i told you so comments and exactly another reason why this place is horrendous during a ssw! 

    I think sometimes its best to sit back watch the runs and stick to your beliefs without bias and conjecture!

    I think looking at the upper air pattern finally sniffing out the correct pattern and a tiny bit of model consenus we may now see a few happier faces from tomorrows model runs onwards

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    I’d quite happily take a P5 staring from day 8 🥶

    B5726406-29F0-428D-9069-738B197FA468.png

    47FF9BD6-3F3C-4590-A8BE-E8F490FE507E.png

    01B512E0-B927-4852-80E6-99C3C55CB6F5.png

    4A9B256E-4898-4881-9157-0FAECF594FDB.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    i know this is a pretty pointless post, but if this landed at T384 on GFS 18z, most of you would go crazy:

    46EB6D36-DE94-4928-9AA3-FF43F7466E13.thumb.png.7fdd0e031693a53a9ef4b669a3dea560.pngBFA6904D-AB2A-4BCF-B2CB-5B5916A29B69.thumb.png.c39251968d19b3da5c65be47177d0725.png

    Interestingly the agonised cat face is present on both charts.   That must mean something is brewing...

    Well I can also see the Michelin man, should he be heading for France? 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Insane charts that are off the chain at the moment! Loving every minute of it. A fair bit of unfinished business to get through first however, with the phasing and distribution of heights and lows over the next few days, but very promising trends, it has to be said. Getting more certain that the UK and more especially N Europe could be on the verge of some perhaps record breaking cold. Maybe as cold as February 2012 for some parts! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    48 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The para will be great late on too - we keep seeing that more pronounced second arctic ridge punched in from the pacific side late week 2.  

    The one on the chart i posted 3 days ago?

    Or different location?

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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