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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

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Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk
    12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    My conclusion this evening- it's all looking too marginal. Those on low ground or in the S of the country will be disappointed if this transpires. Late December 2020 with a few weeks of sun strengthening added.

    I think you may have just put yourself on GRIFF'S list!

    image.thumb.png.6411c59eff89014ce61173d4ddf3899c.png Some will be lucky and get a good covering!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

    We need something like the JMA chart posted earlier with the pattern further east & the northerlies taking a more direct route to U.K., net result is the lower 850s further south. Hopefully we’ll get something close to that pattern come day 7/8.

    image.thumb.gif.5699291cb1a49a88efa519673f0a841c.gif

    Edited by Gustywind
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    2 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

    We need something like the JMA chart posted earlier with the pattern further east & the northerlies taking a more direct route to U.K., net result is the lower 850s further south. Hopefully we’ll get something close to that pattern come day 7/8.

    Even then some won't be happy🤭🤫

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    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
    Just now, Sweatyman said:

    Even then some won't be happy🤭🤫

    True, I still remember plenty of moaning back in Dec 2010!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    The GEM looks fine from a pattern perspective but, very little cold air, at T240 anyway:

    F7B873E8-D761-4410-9181-89978334ADBC.thumb.png.afe06afbb21c46e38f658850af353438.png307C4A85-D290-40B8-A733-41F8918A72CE.thumb.png.b0aa41087723327efee61914bcd1b099.png

    Obviously the pattern would be conducive to advecting the deep cold towards us to an extent unknown, but that would be longer term, for now it is too far west.

    Whats the saying?......"can't see the wood for the trees" I think that may become even more appropriate with the runs if this trend continues.

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    ECM looking good for temperatures to gradually fall away next week over most of U.K.

    As Matt Hugo stated may not be -10 850s but will be cold enough for plenty of wintery 

    weather.My take much more wintery this time than the one we have just been through 

    and a lot more of the white stuff shared more evenly across the country.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    2 hours ago, That ECM said:

    Comparable mean. good perts. Inter run variables. 😄

    4DF7B320-CA9D-47AF-B153-BB8034E66A45.png

    C3045AB6-9440-4C54-BA82-7E314D67FF73.png

    41444167-4735-438E-912C-5E018CCD021A.png

    Im quite liking the slightly west based mean, once the Atlantic energy is quelled an easterly movement of the pattern is what you'd expect. so at day 7 its looking good IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    People getting caught up in run to run 850's seven days out is a waste of time. 

    What we are seeing in the modelling now is a quick trop response to the first warming  back on the 5th Jan so what we are seeing displayed in the trop modelling is the first phase of the colder spell as further warmings are expected which could well enhance the initial pattern.  Try not to over analyse every run at this stage. It's a waste of time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    15 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    The latest fax shows another correction westward of the front alignment on Thursday  . Looks like limited progress tomorrow. Snow risk increases on Thursday but in more central regions than earlier anticipated . Looks like a growing trend in the short term that could throw all present model runs beyond the end of the week out of the window.

    C

    fax48s.gif

    Me being impressed with the fax chart is an understatement!!!it nailed it on the 60 hour chart from this morning and all other models have followed!!!gota give the faxers credit here👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I think the issue here is SSW expectations versus what the models are so far delivering .

    Its a bit like expecting a gift to be a weekend at the Dorchester and then getting booked into the Premier Inn instead .

    If the SSW had never happened then expectations would be much lower , that’s not to say that we won’t see some colder synoptics in future runs .

    I think we’re currently in a holding pattern . 

    I think once the SSW was only a displacement type (although favourable), we should have lowered expectations soon after the SSW but things have settled down now and there are repeated bouts of amplification in the Atlantic which will drive waves into the lower strat as well and right now as a result there are some bonkers runs in the Ensembles and the biggest clustering on temperature really delivers for most, just its in the extended range, people are just disappointed it wont come sooner, i can take a few marginals (they dont normally float my boat) while something better is in the pipeline, always looked to me a late Jan and more particularly Feb winter this to me, its just that obviously a lot can still go wrong in the meantime!.

    image.thumb.png.de1ff7ce8bea2e7979a0f30a6abf88d8.png

    image.thumb.png.cf4c728c3c3b45bc968baa637f29b90c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The 12z trend is still coldies friend, there are obviously going to be variations from run to run but some seem to treat every op run as gospel which is a big mistake...at this range it’s all about the trend..there have been comments about the uppers (850’s) not being cold enough next week, well, there are some pretty crappy dam thicknesses this week but that won’t stop some areas seeing snow / snaw this week!😜 ❄️ 
     

    Anyway, we are rapidly approaching the tipping point when next week really firms up, one way or the other..enjoy the ride..it’s much more exciting (potentially) than the last several winters, which were mostly a disaster for coldies!🤪

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)

    The winter of 1947 didn't start till 23rd January remember.....temperatures leading up to that date were as high as 14c on some occasions so I remain cautiously optimistic at the moment, for now,for the rest of today (and maybe tomorrow).

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
    45 minutes ago, Gadje said:

    Thanks for the UK map. I wonder what people living north of the UK are getting regards weather.

    Can get a bit like that on here, sure nothing meant by it though, think we are all naturally a bit IMBY

    That's why Paul and the gang set up the local forums some years ago, a snow flake was seen on the t180 navgem chart one time in Norwich. Place went nuts. Southern softies-northern woolybacks ect..toys prams.

    Anyways hope this is useful, so you can take a look 👍

    WXCHARTS.COM

    A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

     

    overview_20210112_06_192.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I think once the SSW was only a displacement type (although favourable), we should have lowered expectations soon after the SSW but things have settled down now and there are repeated bouts of amplification in the Atlantic which will drive waves into the lower strat as well and right now as a result there are some bonkers runs in the Ensembles and the biggest clustering on temperature really delivers for most, just its in the extended range, people are just disappointed it wont come sooner, i can take a few marginals (they dont normally float my boat) while something better is in the pipeline, always looked to me a late Jan and more particularly Feb winter this to me, its just that obviously a lot can still go wrong in the meantime!.

    image.thumb.png.de1ff7ce8bea2e7979a0f30a6abf88d8.png

    image.thumb.png.cf4c728c3c3b45bc968baa637f29b90c.png

    Couldn't have said it better.
    We should not expect too much from the initial Greenland High, but the later stage EC-Op and the ensembles show developments to our Northeast that have way more 'potential' (hate that word though).

    I still think a serious cold spell is possible late January into February.

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
    26 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    The latest fax shows another correction westward of the front alignment on Thursday  . Looks like limited progress tomorrow. Snow risk increases on Thursday but in more central regions than earlier anticipated . Looks like a growing trend in the short term that could throw all present model runs beyond the end of the week out of the window.

    C

    fax48s.gif

    Looks like the strength of the High has been under estimated and if thursdays weather is in doubt then everything going forward could change🤣!,

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    Just now, Hotspur62 said:

    Looks like the strength of the High has been under estimated and if thursdays weather is in doubt then everything going forward could change🤣!,

    Yes, its a matter of now forecasting. All sorts of conundrums to digest in the models.

    c

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this.

    EPS.thumb.png.cab1ff102c9cc4e876ad214d31871e7c.png

    Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not every single cold spell is going to be the next BFTE or 2010. The pattern looks great going forward. The Det runs will continue to chop and change, and whining about 850hPa temperatures 10 days away is a complete & utter waste of time.

    Completely agree.

    People forget that from these sorts of set ups, we don’t need deep cold to get heavy snow.

    The below charts from 10th December 2017 gave us about 3/4 inches of snow here in N London:

     

    115E0588-6E86-4332-B907-A66C77BEB0A1.png

    55F97C90-F609-4F84-97E3-8516E28BFBCC.png

    36A85428-9622-4D68-A854-6D0185782739.jpeg

    Edited by danm
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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    16 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Hmmm. Where to start.

    1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed!

    2. We are very definitely seeing the impact of the SSW. Go check the Berlin charts.

    3. What changed in terms of the historic January possibility was the vortex did not split. We are now on the cusp of experiencing about the best impact from a displaced pattern that we can get. Vortex is primarily over Asia and not Canada or the Atlantic, and we have enough displacement to allow an arctic high to bed in. Had the vortex split I think we would have had much greater chance of severe and sustained cold, but it survived by a whisker.

     

    How deep the cold might be is very hard to say. I agree with others that we are still in a holding pattern. We will get what we will get and I am sure that many will see snow. We have already had more snow in parts than we have had for the majority of recent winters and some on here must have short memories. 

    Looking beyond 240h there is considerable uncertainty about the evolution, more so than is often the case. I suspect this is why many of the more knowledgeable on here have gone a bit quiet - hard to make a call when a call looks near impossible to make. Trop forcing coming out of the Pacific is very hard to read and may, or may not, hit 7/8/1. The extent to which the vortex will remain displaced, where it might move from here and the extent of its recovery is wildly difficult to work out. There is even the outside chance of enough trop forcing perhaps to look to split it later - but then again it may ride out and strengthen. The trop precursor pattern has gone for now due to the displacement, but wave breaking remains in NWP output and the potential for a potent such break to kick the vortex again as we move into February could happen.

    But confidence in all this is extremely low. I can’t pick a longer term path at the moment, that’s for sure. End of January gets cold - what happens beyond that is wide open. 

     

    Not to play devil's advocate but we heard the uppers will get colder mantra with the lead up to the last cold spell and they didn't. 

    In regards to -8c uppers, has them last week and got 36 hours of rain. 

    I'm quickly learning that only -10c guarantees snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Apropos of nothing the eps run from T100 to T360 has no reduction of uppers over the U.K. and nw Europe compared to the 00z suite. The change run to run is only for an increase in 850 temps. 

    this info is provided purely to illustrate that the trend is for lowest temps to be moderated compared to what we were perhaps expecting from this trough 

    On the plus side for coldies, that spread this morning has retreated back to keep the zero uppers no further north than the southern England.  

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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