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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    GEM is the camp for more widespread snow Thursday eve 

    23E71F6E-3F50-4A72-A042-6AFF565F811C.png

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    Gem seems to overdo snowfall amounts 

    1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

    The forecast of "cold" is still very much a likelihood, it's the magnitude of cold during day 6 to day 8 which has been steadily downgrading recently.

    Very much noticing this trend 

    also, the para looks like phasing to only include the Scots in the cold conditions 

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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Over to the ECM, the 4-7 day period is still very complicated. In these situation a fast road to cold isn’t off the cards ...

    As mentioned above, the cold doesn’t get to the south on some of these last few runs!! Shetland looks primed 🙄

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
    19 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    This is what I'm looking for. The extreme cold air pushing southwards over land, instead of the Norwegian sea. 

    GFSPARAEU12_144_2.png

    Apparently not😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    This UKMO T144 chart should be for games of "what happened next"!

    image.thumb.png.2bcca975236e0c7cfcc3e86490e3123e.png

    So much going on here. Ridge to the west, already undercut to the south, but being such a tidler of a high, you wouldn't bet on it turning into a full-blown Greenland ridge. Where's that Atlantic low going? Will heights get in ahead, or get cut-off as the lows to the NW and SE converge? Answers on the back of a postcard, free NW subscription to the winner...

    (ONLY JOKING!!!)

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GEM  takes the easy & quick route to cold...

    68722DC1-13A5-444C-A259-028D68650A70.png

    2597C570-F179-469E-8C3B-20236E7FB123.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Gem seems to overdo snowfall amounts 

    Very much noticing this trend 

    also, the para looks like phasing to only include the Scots in the cold conditions 

    The issue is becoming where the dividing line between cold and mild will end up - cold very likely to come, but how far south? Coldies further north should be very happy with the trends for the final third of the month, though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Gem seems to overdo snowfall amounts 

    Very much noticing this trend 

    also, the para looks like phasing to only include the Scots in the cold conditions 

    Yes, the probability of very cold temperatures with snow to all levels day 6 to 8 is diminishing but those dissapointed by that have the bar set too high.

    The para is not well supported after 200 hours in it's zonality around the Azores. Positively, most output is trending drive the jet south in this region / timeframe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Yes, the probability of very cold temperatures with snow to all levels day 6 to 8 is diminishing but those dissapointed by that have the bar set too high.

    The para is not well supported after 200 hours in it's zonality around the Azores. Positively, most output is trending drive the jet south in this region / timeframe.

    Weren't the colder uppers expected after day 8 (20th of Jan)? I take your point that they have got warmer in the 6-8 period.

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Weren't the colder uppers expected after day 8 (20th of Jan)? I take your point that they have got warmer in the 6-8 period.

    Yes, it's still an evolving cold period with the cold gradually developing from day 6 to day 12. The route to cold we have now is not as optimal if you want very very cold weather. I personally don't see any stark evidence that this upcoming spell will most likely be significantly colder than the period we've just had. Of course there is a chance it could be.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Can anybody tell me why we keep seeing troughing up the Norwegian coast from the main low which moves eastwards at approx 240z onwards and particularly visible at 270?...in essence this keeps the coldest air away from the UK - high pressure only on the pinpoint of the Norwegian coastline. Something I've continually seen modelling in FI over the last week or so. Warmer SST's?

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
    1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Yes, it's still an evolving cold period with the cold gradually developing from day 6 to day 12. The route to cold we have now is not as optimal if you want very very cold weather. I personally don't see any stark evidence that this upcoming spell will most likely be significantly colder than the period we've just had. Of course there is a chance it could be.

    I thought you were booming etc a couple of days ago? If it’s no better than what we’ve just had I think I want mild weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Puddles or snowmen? That’s going to be the million dollar question for most I expect in the next few weeks! High risk but high reward and a lot more exciting than anything we have had for years! 💦🤷🏻‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Yes, it's still an evolving cold period with the cold gradually developing from day 6 to day 12. The route to cold we have now is not as optimal if you want very very cold weather. I personally don't see any stark evidence that this upcoming spell will most likely be significantly colder than the period we've just had. Of course there is a chance it could be.

    Again it's polar maritime air. A waist of great synoptics  (northern high pressure) for e.g. parts of the continent and I suspect south England as well. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

    Mean and control at 168 sticks two fingers at the op and keeps the lows further apart and also the low over the UK is much shallower. 

     

    1585532767_gensnh-31-1-168(1).thumb.png.3d8bd6efaa9397642dd1ea4272496d65.pnggensnh-0-1-168.thumb.png.2353a594b8b7e388bc515fafa33f1ad3.png

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    1 minute ago, saintkip said:

    I thought you were booming etc a couple of days ago? If it’s no better than what we’ve just had I think I want mild weather.

    Don't forget, due to being 400m asl my bar is set a lot lower,

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I would advise you not to look at the PARA GFS then swfc.

    Well I gathered that as nobody has posted the GFS (P) 12z...usually over it like a rash if it shows cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    Mean and control at 168 sticks two fingers at the op and keeps the lows further apart and also the low over the UK is much shallower. 

     

    1585532767_gensnh-31-1-168(1).thumb.png.3d8bd6efaa9397642dd1ea4272496d65.pnggensnh-0-1-168.thumb.png.2353a594b8b7e388bc515fafa33f1ad3.png

     

     

     

     

    Yep, the Op will be a warm outlier - more apparent in the south as the North is still pretty cold on the Op!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Plenty of cold air to allow snow anywhere ...for some reason I’m having trouble seeing the GFSp tonight 😉

    DE801340-82A7-4475-ADD3-8964883D2152.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lower Penn 163m
  • Location: Lower Penn 163m

    From looking at the overall variety of outcomes across all the models it does appear that the met office update has it about right. I would say the chances for snow settling for areas South of the M4 look to be quite low, Midlands and the North altitude will be key probably ok c. 150m+ possibly higher for the Midlands and Scotland can be reasonably confident of seeing snow at times. Sweet spot likely to be Pennines and Peak District with optimum precipitation amounts and low enough temperatures.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    Mean and control at 168 sticks two fingers at the op and keeps the lows further apart and also the low over the UK is much shallower. 

     

    1585532767_gensnh-31-1-168(1).thumb.png.3d8bd6efaa9397642dd1ea4272496d65.pnggensnh-0-1-168.thumb.png.2353a594b8b7e388bc515fafa33f1ad3.png

     

     

     

     

    We have only (just!) got day 5 sorted out.. 

    For new members stick to the ECM and GFS means, as the OPS will swing wildly past 168 in terms of where then high pressure sets up over Greenland and the Arctic, and will show uppers that are colder on some runs and less cold on others. Worrying about uppers past day 7 is futile atm

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Can anybody tell me why we keep seeing troughing up the Norwegian coast from the main low which moves eastwards at approx 240z onwards and particularly visible at 270?...in essence this keeps the coldest air away from the UK - high pressure only on the pinpoint of the Norwegian coastline. Something I've continually seen modelling in FI over the last week or so. Warmer SST's?

    The very cold upper air on the move over the relatively warm waters of the Norwegian sea generates lows.
    I think @Singularity mentioned this too, earlier today, only about lows in the Atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    If we want the true cold air, everything needs to shift further SE over us. So we can then drag in more of an Easterly element. Everything is just too far north and west on this GFS run.

    Edited by NewEra21
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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