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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Very subtle changes on the gfs 12z very early at 120 hrs!!! 

9 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

UE120-21.GIF?12-16

Looked like a phase at 120, but clearly they had a bust up and went their seperate ways at 144. Bless. thats my take, hope I got it right 

image.thumb.png.9393afecce962b85190cbaf088b6030f.png

Edited by TSNWK
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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

UKMO sticking to its guns from this am which is not good news at all ...

Why  do you say that Joe 

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StormyLincs Enthusiast

StormyLincs

Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
Posted
12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Rather like previously, I am expecting no snow this week. Just too much disagreement and marginality.

Me neither, I’m too near the coast. I think folks well inland at elevation might do well though. 

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Climate Man Seasoned

Climate Man

Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
Posted
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Don’t no what to make of t144 UKMO ? 

4D51B501-E763-488E-88C5-D1D2E798FF86.gif

Slight upgrade on previous run but Iberian heights remain an issue. 

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

How confusing? Some posts saying they've phased one or 2 saying they haven't? anyone care to explain a bit more?

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Don’t no what to make of t144 UKMO ? 

4D51B501-E763-488E-88C5-D1D2E798FF86.gif

Deeper low delays the cold by a couple of days. That should be all.

Given the various means etc, the Greenland High should build eventually.

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted
19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes, most output brings down the wet bulb 0 line which is key for evaporative cooling events into the Midlands earlier now - risk of 2-9cm on lower levels for Thursday.

Thats, very interesting, you nailed the stalling front for Northern England so let's your right. Its not gonna take much more westward movement for West mids to be right in the thick of it

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

UKMO sticking to its guns from this am which is not good news at all ...

Except it’s different...

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
Just now, Kentspur said:

How confusing? Some posts saying they've phased one or 2 saying they haven't? anyone care to explain a bit more?

They looked like they would but they managed not to - suspect would have been best for Ukmo to stop at day 4!

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

How confusing? Some posts saying they've phased one or 2 saying they haven't? anyone care to explain a bit more?

Like the icon it got incredibly close at 120, but by 144 there is clear separation and WAA is heading for Greenland, albeit not that much

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Cheers for the reply’s . People saying the lows phased they didn’t , there 2 separate lows by T144 

6E2D7BA3-82AE-4C45-844F-B354DA9A61A6.gif

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

144 UKMO looks ok to me , it looks as though it will carry on it's path and colder air to follow 

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

UKM has much more heights to our south, which can never be good, to be honest though I’d still take the UKMO 144 if offered it now

Edited by Weathizard
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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Just be careful with seeing hatched lines and assuming snow fields... south and west of north lincs it looks like a few flurries as it dies out. Leicestershire just about gets a dusting on most models eg Icon , but south of this it’s an hour of sleet as it dies out. Hoping for more upgrades to come, Euro 4 and Hirlam etc will come into view tonight for Thursday afternoon which is the main risk for most. 

A70A7CA8-6653-46DD-AB54-4D1232BB4ACF.png

Arp is different though tim   further west   and south

image.thumb.png.a07bac49e84c6bf6d9ce0ffb93a9535d.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The UKMO is refusing to play along . Hard to see how that day 6 chart can evolve to anything like the other outputs .

Its day 5 tries to develop an easterly to ne  flow to add to the confusion .

The worst outcome is a halfway house which the UKMO looks like producing unless the pattern backs so far west that it’s look east rather than nw .

 

 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Thats, very interesting, you nailed the stalling front for Northern England so let's your right. Its not gonna take much more westward movement for West mids to be right in the thick of it

An air temp of 1.5C is needed to get the snow - this will be enough to bring the air temp to 0.5C after 1 hour of evaporative cooling at 90% humidity. With regards to the Midlands, atm I'm struggling to see the West Midlands, Nottinghamshire maybe Leicestershire yes.

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

UKM has much more heights to our south east, which can never be good

Unless they are drained NW to support the ridge into Greenland

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Keeps you on the ball this game - UKM 120 looked liked it had phased to my eye, I was certainly not expectating them to be seperate at 144 - sums up the uncertain times we live in I guess.

Anyway, now to see how GFS handles things and if we get a good pattern we then have to contend with uppergate no doubt. Jeeze its relentless in here  

 

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