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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Indeed

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GFS 12z Op not quite so keen at this stage

image.thumb.png.ba9f13660ab6a3ef70a941df25016daf.png

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
2 minutes ago, Notty said:

Thursday eve looking promising for some:

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North West England snow shield fully operational. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
2 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

North West England snow shield fully operational. 

Para says no ...

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Be careful what you wish for - any further westwards adjustments and this area would be well and truly in the mix.

I will except a full forecast from you in the north west thread. 
just hope the MetO 12z is not a let down. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Thats the op gfs para and arpege!!!just need ecm to agree for thursday and it will well and truely be on for snow!!

Sorry mate but that's setting people up for more disappointment. It looks highly marginal to me.

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Just now, Djdazzle said:

Sorry mate but that's setting people up for more disappointment. It looks highly marginal to me.

It does look highly marginal but once the cold air is in there's nothing marginal about it. Dew points need to be at freezing in this scenario - that literally is the most important variable as all the others like freezing height will fall in place with it. A case of assessing where this area will be at present looks like Norfolk, Lincolnshire, Yorkshire and the North East for a good period of Thursday evening giving 2-7cm to lower levels.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

It does look highly marginal but once the cold air is in there's nothing marginal about it. Dew points need to be at freezing in this scenario - that literally is the most important variable as all the others like freezing height will fall in place with it. A case of assessing where this area will be at present looks like Norfolk, Lincolnshire, Yorkshire and the North East for a good period of Thursday evening giving 2-7cm to lower levels.

Yes I'd agree with that - can the cold air dig in quickly enough though?

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thats the op gfs para and arpege!!!just need ecm to agree for thursday and it will well and truely be on for snow!!

Just be careful with seeing hatched lines and assuming snow fields... south and west of north lincs it looks like a few flurries as it dies out. Leicestershire just about gets a dusting on most models eg Icon , but south of this it’s an hour of sleet as it dies out. Hoping for more upgrades to come, Euro 4 and Hirlam etc will come into view tonight for Thursday afternoon which is the main risk for most. 

A70A7CA8-6653-46DD-AB54-4D1232BB4ACF.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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