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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    GEFS 06z look very good beyond the 21st with a clear trend for colder weather now. Average goes down to around -5C but many runs also go colder than this well.

    47795625-C9A7-4F55-B3DE-88B4AEC554B7.thumb.png.e6c44737e6ab5535c3eff8dac354046f.pngD527E7E8-5368-49BD-9242-37C28B96E46F.thumb.jpeg.7d7885b06b05e9b2934b4f4dfd178549.jpeg

    The 1st chart really demonstrates the direction of travel.😄😄👌👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    58 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Look at that 😍❤️❤️❤️

    CDC8381C-AF5A-4326-9A65-80368B384935.png

    2E68038C-B5A0-40E5-97D5-C776BE68FB5C.png

    I can see why talk of the Pacific Ridge has been about, this is a good visualisation of how helps, it moves over the pole and re-enforces the negative flow and supports the Greenland ridge!

    Lovely charts!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, That ECM said:

    The 1st chart really demonstrates the direction of travel.😄😄👌👌

    Absolutely, a satisfying evolution 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Crucial runs coming up and these next 96hrs will be very tense watching. Expecting a few Wobblies here and there in dealing with the mix of shortwaves. As long as we keep seeing the coldest uppers currently on the planet keep moving towards us, and decent amplification up the US East coast then it’s all good! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Best set yet!!!

    ADBDD87D-F4E6-43A5-ADCE-DD90826C8771.jpeg

    Indeed and we are getting to the point where the mean is being skewed by a few. If you take the main cluster and put the mean in the middle of that lot then it’s superb imo. From about the 21st to the 25th there is very little between zero and minus5. It’s below or way above.😄👍

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Best set yet!!!

    ADBDD87D-F4E6-43A5-ADCE-DD90826C8771.jpeg

    Without a doubt the best yet, just goes to show once again that no matter the obstacles ahead the end result seems to always be leading to cold!

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    This is a really really strong signal, the mean is actually dragged less cold up by a few really mild outlying ENS, and this is the south of the U.K.!!!!

     it would be interesting to see some spaghetti from up North 😵

     

    image.thumb.jpeg.d62c70e126374e9b4f8a6be660f94431.jpeg

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
    15 minutes ago, Griff said:

     

     

     

    So... These aren't at day 10 🤔 

    Not used to this, what happens next? 😜

     

    Forum procedure demands you look for the end of the possible cold spell before its begun.😄

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

     

     it would be interesting to see some spaghetti from up North 😵

     

    image.thumb.jpeg.d62c70e126374e9b4f8a6be660f94431.jpeg

    As per request 

     

     

    EDE78A57-FB77-4654-8DCD-1B11F6CB6ED3.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: wigan
  • Location: wigan

    Well, as you know I'm not very knowledgeable maths wise and the advanced nature of some of the data, which is out of my understanding, But I do watch Windy com every day, and look at various models and projected forecast for about 12 days . According the ECM sunday 17th looks interesting,  and a very long finger of purple has got as far as Moscow, showing -26C, about the lowest its been through December.   

    But in only 4-5 days later, the ECM places the purple finger  all but to back to Siberia. I believe we need a Scandinavia high to allow any beast to flow.??? Of course the Newspapers, media outlets are having a field day with dire warnings which cant at this stage be substantiated - just click bait!

    A lot of shifting going on, and even my windy charts are all over the place up to the 21st. If there's any smell of snow, it seems to be contained to Up North, and i mean NORTH. There is no projection for snow to reach North West England like Lancashire at this stage.

    17th january 2021.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Now that HAS west based NAO all over it...we don't want to see that!

    Western based NAO run to the end.... Jubbly

    anim_ode5.gif

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Stunning set of ENS for the 06z!

    image.thumb.png.cc75b5d51dda52dee47ca2053bb9fa7d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(

    all important for snow chances and so often the difference between rain and snow for low levels, from the 21st the dew points are looking good too1213886974_gfs-preston-gb-54n-25w(2).thumb.jpg.8c0047a9519b28a3a920e43740c6acfe.jpg!  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    1 minute ago, Purga said:

    Stunning set of ENS for the 06z!

    image.thumb.png.cc75b5d51dda52dee47ca2053bb9fa7d.png

    Indeed. Hopefully this is the turning point and we can see some consistency now.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    4 minutes ago, Purga said:

    Stunning set of ENS for the 06z!

    image.thumb.png.cc75b5d51dda52dee47ca2053bb9fa7d.png

    So going by the mean we have 3 days of -5 before the high drifts west and the Atlantic comes up from underneath. For a good cold spell you want solid -8 to -10. Note the control and the Op both go warmer toward the end as the pattern backs west.

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