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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
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Posted
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

EC splits the vortex day 9- would like to see those uppers a bit lower though (more towards -8 to -10)

It may not be the insanely cold but it looks like snowy day 10 chart.

ECH1-240.GIF?12-12

If the low phased a few hours later then we would have the vary cold uppers pushing S over the UK instead of SW into the Atlantic.

We should really be celebrating the synoptic and getting past the danger phase as the details are going to change run to run.

just get me to 120/144 with no phasing to our W and I will take my cold, very cold, extremely cold or brutally cold medicine from there. 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
25 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Could you explain how? Mucka seems to think it is a similar run to the 12z.

 

EC is fine. Just run to run variation

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

It may not be the insanely cold but it looks like snowy day 10 chart.

ECH1-240.GIF?12-12

If the low phased a few hours later then we would have the vary cold uppers pushing S over the UK instead of SW into the Atlantic.

We should really be celebrating the synoptic and getting past the danger phase as the details are going to change run to run.

just get me to 120/144 with no phasing to our W and I will take my cold, very cold, extremely cold or brutally cold medicine from there. 

Quite. But personally I'm not looking for marginality. I want a snowfall that sticks, not one that melts within the hour.

Lots of room for improvements on the 12z suites...

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Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
Posted

GFS asks us to believe there will be 6 hours of snow on the 21st January.....

51AE929B-BA96-4C1B-8C0E-0D6CAF716857.thumb.gif.f5ac7fabc693dab5bfaf06cb3a465703.gif

What were you saying about the M4 corridor......?

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

Well, the UKMO and ICON put the breaks on this morning. Was hoping for cross model conscenus on the phasing lows this morning. But no joy.

As we know, unless UKMO are onboard it's pointless looking past its t+144 hours chart.

More runs needed.

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted (edited)

I think we have to accept the fact that there's a rather large possibility of the coldest air missing up by a few hundred miles because of the phasing issues bringing a more west based - nao. 

Great fun though with cold and unsettled been the theme and cold enough for snow, especially with the low thickness values again. 

I think the route to very cold air is stil very much on point but the intitual 3 or 4 days in my opinion will be cold and unsettled, with snow especially at height and at night, rather than dry crispy snow and bitter cold. 

Still all to play for 

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Ukmo probably not right at day 6 but to illustrate the problem the models are having, the neg AO with the arctic high conducting the orchestra is circulating the vortex piece clockwise towards  the Atlantic sector but the remnants of the Atlantic systems are meandering around with no momentum to clear them to the east and the cold ridge over e Europe/Iberian upper ridge is a further hinderance to that ....the phasing of the remnants of the Atlantic trough and the ‘vortex trough’ is going to continue to deliver runs with a mixture of wintry nirvana and high frustration for a few days to come yet. Even if this looks to be resolved in coldies favour, there are likely to be further twists and turns as we count down. I struggle to see how a fair chunk of the uk doesn’t get a wintry period from the second half of jan. could be an eighties snowline somewhere (even more frustrating for the southerners).  The Scots (naturally) least likely to avoid the white stuff. 
 

image.thumb.png.2355158e68225e97fb1dc6a6bd08b0a8.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
4 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

 

I think the route to very cold air is stil very much on point but the intitual 3 or 4 days in my opinion will be cold and unsettled, with snow especially at height and at night, rather than dry crispy snow and butter cold. 

Still all to play for 

Didn’t anyone warn you about yellow snow .............

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted (edited)

The Gfs 0z op put a spring in my step this morning, stunning..and then the Ukmo 0h broke the spring!!!..I wonder whether Darren Bett has been messing with the Ukmo?...in general though I’m very happy with the medium / longer term trends but let’s also focus on the reliable timeframe because some of us will see more snow at times this week!...it’s not all about FI!!!!

F506CD8A-C929-41FD-AC7E-711B981999DF.thumb.gif.46babe509e5551ae33300d5e18c0954a.gifB95F3835-36D8-4E66-935B-E4E74C6D3375.thumb.gif.651bb444ee9f09b8d97bf1e542bb3819.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
34 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM has first wave of real cold missing to the West but cold enough for snow

 

and check the cheeky channel runner that ahs already gone through and into Germany with another waiting in the Atlantic.

These features are hard to pick up because of the 12h frames on ECM but if it were GFS I expect the South would have already seen a good dumping

not much snow in the south from the day 7/8 runner as too wam (marginal) 

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Didn’t anyone warn you about yellow snow .............

I'v seen it before, normally behind a tree at 3am ?‍♂️

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

This mornings ecm is one of those runs that looks great initially but closer inspection shows that at no time does it draw really cold air down from Scandinavia instead in the last few frames  we just have flabby low over the UK doing nothing much

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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted

Remarkable how ECM brings us another cold UK though like early and late December only somewhat colder

Many people would prefer that pattern further east with a clean northerly across the UK, but then snow becomes confined to North wind ward coast, Great if you live in Newcastle.

With the slack cold low pressure set up as shown on ECM everyone is in with a chance and its probably more interesting than a cold, dry northerly?

Andy

 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
56 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Could you explain how? Mucka seems to think it is a similar run to the 12z.

 

It went ok so scrub my poor attempt at commentary

Clearly I'm no aspiring John Motson !!

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NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted

Besides the OP and Control run, the GFS ensembles are far from convincing!

t850Suffolk (6).png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
45 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

EC splits the vortex day 9- would like to see those uppers a bit lower though (more towards -8 to -10)

Yes, good spot ...

Hopefully ssts will be lower now which of course will always help.

 

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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted

Check out the latest fax  charts, big correction westwards of the frontal system on Wednesday so many more people will be affected by snow as a wave develops on the front, places like NE England favoured yesterday would miss out and it becomes a East Midlands special.

 Christ I can't keep up

Andy

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Check out the latest fax  charts, big correction westwards of the frontal system on Wednesday so many more people will be affected by snow as a wave develops on the front, places like NE England favoured yesterday would miss out and it becomes a East Midlands special.

 Christ I can't keep up

Andy

Wth thats a huuuuge correction west!!!!that surely brings areas further west back into the game!!!it looks different to other models very early on!

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
53 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

EC splits the vortex day 9- would like to see those uppers a bit lower though (more towards -8 to -10)

Dr Amy Butler has tweeted something similar, regarding a split of the lower strat pv:

"up to ~30 hPa looking more likely in both GFS and ECMWF forecasts by ~Jan 15th, with smaller lobe heading off towards eastern Canada." https://t.co/3u7UoAdJN2

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Apologies peeps..

For some reason my phone was showing Sundays EC det,or at least 120-144!!

I have no idea why 

Anyway, EC is decent ,although the uppers are hardly awe inspiring.

Still, let's just get that all important ridge towards Greenland and worry about uppers then !!

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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Wth thats a huuuuge correction west!!!!that surely brings areas further west back into the game!!!it looks different to other models very early on!

I know! My location has gone from having rain as I am too far west to missing the snow as I am too far east!

At such short range the models are all over the place, but the fax is rarely wrong having the best data and human input.

Andy

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