Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM has the low so cut off by 144 it never gets within 1500 miles of the UK and ends up exiting N 

Nice to see GFS control is very safe in this manner as well as others have mentioned.

What bothers me here is one model picks up a spoiler ( Ukmo 0z) and before you can blink your eye the whole proposed set up has fallen apart at a rate of knots.

I hope this isn't the case here, need a big EC and more importantly  some kind of consistency.

Where the heck have these Iberian heights appeared from? 

That unwelcome  signal seems to be gathering momentum ...

Edited January 12, 2021 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

FWIW ukmo and icon are a virtual carbon copy at 144....

[Cheshire Freeze]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

What bothers me here is one model picks up a spoiler ( Ukmo 0z) and before you can blink your eye the whole proposed set up has fallen apart at a rate of knots.

I hope this isn't the case here, need a big EC and more importantly  some kind of consistency.

Where the heck have these Iberian heights appeared from? 

That unwelcome  signal seems to be gathering momentum ...

Iberian heights  are just an antagonistic response to the trough sitting too far west. Encourages a height rise ahead.

[The Eagle]

The GFS control run is, if anything, even more awesome than the op. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

The GFS control run is, if anything, even more awesome than the op. 

Cross polar ridge! PV split in two

[Vikos]

I saved this chart. It’s just stunning. Pyramids will be covered with snow. 
 

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Cross polar ridge! PV split in two

There is support in the mean for a Pacific ridge to punch into the Arctic. Would be a long way back for the vortex if this could happen.

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

15 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I saved this chart. It’s just stunning. Pyramids will be covered with snow. 
 

In +16c uppers - not sure they would support snow in Egypt

[Battleground Snow]

North east England and Scotland takes a pounding from snow on the ECM

[Battleground Snow]

ECM cuts the low off and no phasing issues at 120, if the EPS back this, surley this is the end of the long draw out saga

 

[The Eagle]

ECM looks good at 120 just about.

It's VERY close though at 96 hrs. A nudge here or there and it's the UKMO/ICON.

[KTtom]

Blimey, thought GFS operational was one of the best runs I've seen in 20 odd years, then I looked at the Control ! 

 

[Vikos]

21 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

In +16c uppers - not sure they would support snow in Egypt

I know. Just opened my eyes, should have waited a bit more. We’ll see...

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM cuts the low off and no phasing issues at 120, if the EPS back this, surley this is the end of the long draw out saga

 

Yup looking good but definitely not the end of the saga, it never is for cold fans

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yup looking good but definitely not the end of the saga, it never is for cold fans

Very true... Its not over until it's over, but it's got to be the strong favoured solution now. 

[northwestsnow]

EC is dangerously close to going wrong at 144...

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Very true... Its not over until it's over, but it's got to be the strong favoured solution now. 

ECM very consistent with its last run (Makes a change) but we still need UKMO on board and GFS to be consistent.

If UKMO comes on board and tomorrow morning doesn't throw a spanner in works then then fuse is lit.

Cautious optimism for me until then.

00z 144 V 12z 168

Edited January 12, 2021 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

But its ok at 168 ...

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is dangerously close to going wrong at 144...

Could you explain how? Mucka seems to think it is a similar run to the 12z.

 

[Mucka]

ECM has first wave of real cold missing to the West but cold enough for snow

and check the cheeky channel runner that ahs already gone through and into Germany with another waiting in the Atlantic.

These features are hard to pick up because of the 12h frames on ECM but if it were GFS I expect the South would have already seen a good dumping

[carinthian]

Morning all, lets hope that secondary wave moves through and on time unhindered to release that mass of cold Arctic Air. What can go wrong ? Would like to see the UKMO run at 144t having the potential trigger low a bit further east. However, even before we get there , oh what a messy picture over the coming days into the weekend. Stalling troughs could produce a lot of rain and even snowfall. I think its down  to a matter of now forecasting with short term models and an expert eye coming to the fore as so to speak.

 C

Edited January 12, 2021 by carinthian

[Meerkat]

58 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I saved this chart. It’s just stunning. Pyramids will be covered with snow. 
 

Not with 16 C nighttime temperatures.

[Cheshire Freeze]

EC splits the vortex day 9- would like to see those uppers a bit lower though (more towards -8 to -10)

[DEYS(Kent)]

Great Synoptics. Not cold enough for notable cold spell in medium term, except for surprises that pop up in or against the flow..

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

EC splits the vortex day 9- would like to see those uppers a bit lower though (more towards -8 to -10)

It's good how the lobe left over northern Canada is very small and in the centre of the country not towards the Atlantic

Edited January 12, 2021 by Battleground Snow