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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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Andrew snow hope Apprentice

Andrew snow hope

Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
Posted

May I ask why we hang our hat so much on the GFS charts, whenever I see excitement in GFS from people I always then see a big let down. Genuine question 

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

That variation leading to quite starkly different surface conditions though. Ultimately need the GFS to come on board with the optimal shortwave activity early tomorrow otherwise, unfortunately, a switch to the GFS phasing solution is looking increasingly likely.

It’s certainly a consideration, but only that at this point. Far too far away atm to be any more than that Kasim.  

Edited by chionomaniac
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Maybe... Wait for it... 

gfsnh-0-186.png

It might get there eventually but as we’ve learned many times, when things  are pushed back it’s normally a bad sign.

Even with the GH building in this chart it’s going to take a while for any cold to flood into the U.K. with the heights over Europe

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.3e19836eaf49ad359f6d217d3695af63.pngI have already filed this run under the heading- Only to be opened in case of bog roll shortages!

 

Edited by chionomaniac
Family forum. Don’t try and avoid the swear filter!
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The gfs/p is not bad at 198 synoptic wise...

gfsnh-0-198.thumb.png.0e5a7348bd8ef6c4a3637b148c6ea9d6.png

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TallPaul Aficionado

TallPaul

Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth
Posted
22 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

And with the news that I might, if I'm very, very lucky, see 15 minutes' worth of sleety drizzle, on Thursday, I'll call it a day. G'night all!

Hi GC, was just a tongue in cheek reply to an all-to-familiar South Devon "gutted, wish it was us" scenario...one day maybe... hey better odds for you... at least your rain will be cold Good luck further North & East all...

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)

The high is getting stronger as the run goes on on the gfsp . Should turn out good . 

79C6959E-C9D1-4208-A292-B5880420D9F6.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS 18z // T210, improving picture but can we just get enough from the remnants of the arctic high (red circle), in conjunction with the Greenland ridge to force the cold south enough?

4871D620-F30B-4266-A40B-EB9DDD6E5972.thumb.jpeg.b245c312da3b46986a5ed5007d8c8c63.jpeg

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Evening all - been a bit bonkers in here over the last couple of days, happens every time we're in the game for some proper winter weather.  I always see it as a positive (I bet the mods don't though!!!).  We are in a bit of a holding pattern at the moment, the models have agreed something big is around the corner so now it's down to waiting for 2-3 days to get this into the semi-reliable and really get a handle of how it's likely to affect us in our tiny corner of the globe.  I reckon by the 12z's on Thursday we'll start to see the direction of travel.

Onto the 18z runs, the Para is chucking out yet more stunning synoptics at 210

image.thumb.png.35f37dd43473083524e96f2ea13a5940.png

Disclaimer - this will not be the final outcome!

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)

Typical isn't it, as soon as we have cross model agreement one of them jumps ship straight away. The control is better and the mean doesn't look too bad either. No need to worry just yet.

Goodnight

gensnh-0-1-150.png

gensnh-31-1-150.png

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs/p is not bad at 198 synoptic wise...

gfsnh-0-198.thumb.png.0e5a7348bd8ef6c4a3637b148c6ea9d6.png

No matter how much lipstick you put on a pig it's still a pig. Heights prevalent in southern Europe as long as that remains so, cold remains just too far out of reach for a majority of the UK.

Not the most impressed, even the ECM is a little too far NW for my liking. Hopefully that changes.

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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

No matter how much lipstick you put on a pig it's still a pig. Heights prevalent in southern Europe as long as that remains so, cold remains just too far out of reach for a majority of the UK.

Not the most impressed, even the ECM is a little too far NW for my liking. Hopefully that changes.

The ECM looks fine to me. It maybe not 2010- esque but would deliver for many.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

Guys,i know we are commenting on the models(which is fine)but we are looking too far ahead when even this week isn't nailed on yet!

the overall trends still look the same and the variation of the same theme looks to continue with Greenland heights and trough coming down from the N/NE in the extended

i am happy at the moment overall with today's proceedings.

latest from the cpc...,what more can you ask from those anomalies?

610day_03.thumb.gif.6cc74ce66bdc3def7554a1481cce943e.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.491d5dbd389ffc7da62fa9e1d89ebd8b.gif

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Excellent mean at 168 - a considerable improvement on the amplification towards Greenland vs the 12z

image.thumb.png.85b05a79e564646fb469a9195cb7a6a2.pngimage.thumb.png.03dd0af15b1440d0aeb4cdc9d40ea633.png   

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
11 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

No matter how much lipstick you put on a pig it's still a pig. Heights prevalent in southern Europe as long as that remains so, cold remains just too far out of reach for a majority of the UK.

Not the most impressed, even the ECM is a little too far NW for my liking. Hopefully that changes.

I’ll take it ........

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

The ECM looks fine to me. It maybe not 2010- esque but would deliver for many.

Not bad just as someone from the SE, its a little too close for comfort but in this set-up the high risk has a high reward.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

We are worrying about the phasing of lows which probably won’t even exist at that range!

On a more sobering note, I’ve lost track of how many cold spells have been derailed by shortwaves or phasing lows. 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Guys,i know we are commenting on the models(which is fine)but we are looking too far ahead when even this week isn't nailed on yet!

the overall trends still look the same and the variation of the same theme looks to continue with Greenland heights and trough coming down from the N/NE in the extended

i am happy at the moment overall with today's proceedings.

latest from the cpc...,what more can you ask from those anomalies?

610day_03.thumb.gif.6cc74ce66bdc3def7554a1481cce943e.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.491d5dbd389ffc7da62fa9e1d89ebd8b.gif

The answer is a lot more. 

You follow a the green lines to get an idea of wind direction, so these show North Westerlies.

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

If this is putting lipstick on a pig.. 

I want to also put a wig, a nice dress and take it out for dinner before putting a ring on it... 

Stunning. 

gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.fa5b35eaf5bd6d0280cab94cae57c79a.png

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