Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[NeilN]

2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic paths to upgrade potential, is always a good scenario at the range we're tracking at this point. I like the fact it's around 20th-25th Jan also, one of the most likely times from climatology for long duration cold to set in. Almost every significantly cold February had its origins in a gradually decreasing temperature trend in late January, not always hitting very severe levels until near the end or into early February itself. I think that's where this is all heading, a severely cold February. 

Completely agree with you. I think we're having a February 1986 repeat on our hands. 

[Frigid]

2 minutes ago, NeilN said:

Completely agree with you. I think we're having a February 1986 repeat on our hands. 

A February 1991 or 2018 would be nice to have, considering a sub zero CET is incredibly rare in todays climate, although not impossible.

[sebastiaan1973]

3 minutes ago, NeilN said:

Completely agree with you. I think we're having a February 1986 repeat on our hands. 

If only this would happen. One of the most beautiful winter months I ever experienced. Over here (Netherlands) there was almost no snow (which I don't mind) and we had our Elfstedentocht; 200 kilometers of skating.

[Tim Bland]

The mild outlier part of the GFS I predicted earlier starting to come into view now...

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic paths to upgrade potential, is always a good scenario at the range we're tracking at this point. I like the fact it's around 20th-25th Jan also, one of the most likely times from climatology for long duration cold to set in. Almost every significantly cold February had its origins in a gradually decreasing temperature trend in late January, not always hitting very severe levels until near the end or into early February itself. I think that's where this is all heading, a severely cold February. 

Yes, I’m happy with todays runs, and given a ‘prior’ direction of travel due to the SSW, I have increasing confidence in a cold spell. Interesting what you say about the time of year, too.  At this time of year any significant snow is not going to melt quickly, and lying snow just bakes (wrong word!) the cold in further, so yes it could be a prolonged spell.  But we have to get the pattern confirmed in the first place before thinking too much about that.  

[Decemberof2010]

I'm getting really fed up waiting for the 12z GEFS. 

 

So I've decided a game of GEFS 6z Bingo is needed

Eyes down, anyone who gets a full house please shout Marginal Uppers

First up

2 little ducks frozen on the lake 22

I

1 and 9 frozen on the Tyne 19

Fat lady singing number 8

 

And on its own number 6

Edited January 11, 2021 by Decemberof2010

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic paths to upgrade potential, is always a good scenario at the range we're tracking at this point. I like the fact it's around 20th-25th Jan also, one of the most likely times from climatology for long duration cold to set in. Almost every significantly cold February had its origins in a gradually decreasing temperature trend in late January, not always hitting very severe levels until near the end or into early February itself. I think that's where this is all heading, a severely cold February. 

I remember for years saying to friends etc that , as a general rule,  cold to set in or be building in latter half of January for any real chance of prolonged cold spell in Feb.  That imo generally holds up.  Interesting that the sun has been blank again for 8 days and counting.

Interesting outlook RJS....certainly many ingredients now in play.

 

BFTP

 

[NeilN]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

If only this would happen. One of the most beautiful winter months I ever experienced. Over here (Netherlands) there was almost no snow (which I don't mind) and we had our Elfstedentocht; 200 kilometers of skating.

That sounds lovely! I was only 1 at the time it happened, but my parents said it was a brutal winter month. Even if a watered down version more like 2010, 1996 or 2018 would be nice too. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I’m trying not to get too carried away, but the way the Mean charts are turning out, it’s challenging not to at times. 

As awesome as it is seeing a big sector of the PV douse itself over Scandi and NW Russia, the cold will tend to bottle itself up there if the low 500hpa heights remain in place. The solution to flood it out over us and further South would be to migrate that Arctic high towards Svalbard and then into Scandi. That would release it outwards S and E. Also a lowering of heights into Iberia would help lock us deep into the grip of a prolonged cold spell. 

Awesome model watching though. Just what we need in these desperate times for some of us. Obviously thoughts would be spared if the cold got too much for the general population. 

[Tim Bland]

Big difference east to west on the ECM for Thursday. 6c in Manchester and 2c in Norwich!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Big difference east to west on the ECM for Thursday. 6c in Manchester and 2c in Norwich!

It comes to something when folks start taking a picture of the TV for a temperature forecast...if your gonna photograph the telly,at least make it Match of the day mate..

Just kidding Tim....yes quite a contrast,and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see that colder air push further SW..This front could be a grinding to a halt before back tracking...the fun and games begin.

 

.

Edited January 11, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mapantz]

15Z UKV:

 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Mapantz

[Battleground Snow]

Icon falls back into line at  114.

I make that cross model agreement now for the low to cut off. (Finally!)

 

[Daniel*]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Big difference east to west on the ECM for Thursday. 6c in Manchester and 2c in Norwich!

Max of 5C in London during daytime on ECM 12z warmest earliest around midnight. It’s a very defined/sharp boundary! 

 

[Met4Cast]

Well the 12z GEFS have certainly cleared up any uncertainty issues..

[Nick L]

18z UKV has very much backed off the snow in northern England up to midnight on Wednesday night. The 3z had widespread snow accumulations in NE England, the 18z is the latest run to go that far and it has virtually nothing. Such a knife edge. Will be interesting to see what the 18z EC throws out.

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z ICON is an improvement with the ESP trough that breaks away nicely from the upper Greenland low and because of this we would get more amplification into Greenland

18z 120 v's 12z 126

the front on Wednesday evening is stalling further west too.

18z v's 12z

 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

18z UKV has very much backed off the snow in northern England up to midnight on Wednesday night. The 3z had widespread snow accumulations in NE England, the 18z is the latest run to go that far and it has virtually nothing. Such a knife edge. Will be interesting to see what the 18z EC throws out.

Is that because the front goes further east?

[Frostbite1980]

58 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

I'm not sharing the love for the ECM charts.  They look ok  but we want better than the recent cold spell, which hardly delivered.  We want deeper cold than whats on offer tonight, hopefully we will see upgrades on future runs.

Ups and downs mate, don't get hung up on individual runs good or bad, ensemble means are best viewed at the moment but even they seem to flip more than I do a pancake at the moment

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well the 12z GEFS have certainly cleared up any uncertainty issues..

Yes they have ... for the next 3 days!

[Kasim Awan]

Nice to see NCEP (GFS) appears to be sending out the 18Z normally.

[TallPaul]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

After viewing since 2004! I don't think I have ever ever ever done a boom.....now I'm doing one "BOOM".

...and why not?!! We all deserve a 'boom moment' from time to time... and of course the models are far from a done deal yet, but boy we really do deserve a moment when we just need to shout it loud!!!

Great viewing, great contributions, great 'hiding behind the sofa moments'.... i love this place!!

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

A -17 run has been spotted on the latest run of the GFS ensembles....

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well the 12z GEFS have certainly cleared up any uncertainty issues..

They are a complete mess Dan and i wouldn't want to call it which way we are heading,...they look just as bad as my daughter's scribbling when she was two ha ha

which way will we go from here?...

 

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Nice to see NCEP (GFS) appears to be sending out the 18Z normally.

Meteociel seem happy about it too.