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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Anyone know when the GEFS will be out?  Also, what are the eps extended saying please?

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

    Snow for the high ground possibly lower levels of northeast of England and scotland on Wednesday in particular, possibly significant accumulations in places but also the small possibility of freezing rain which the met office have mentioned briefly in their warnings.. the models where showing this risk yesterday.. but the margins are very fine as they pretty much always are with this. Perhaps parts of northwest England and southwestern Scotland the most likely places for this if it occurs.

    milder upper level air for northwestern parts but cold air near to freezing close to the ground may linger when the rain arrives for a time, ground temperatures may remain around freezing in some places here too for a while.

    EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_42.thumb.jpg.c218762ad8fd4741d80884687b665f87.jpg

    EUROPE_PRMSL_TEMP2M_42.thumb.jpg.3548622f9214c4f841dc7a1a45af3d92.jpg

    1222040297_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_66(2).thumb.jpg.c056fc7df4342a8369e62d6a0cb27e0a.jpg

    The rain perhaps snow in northeastern England and scotland then stalls and may fall as Snow further south in some parts of eastern England giving a covering of a few cm's mainly on higher ground but some perhaps to lower levels as colder air to the east is drawn into this wet weather but it's marginal and also depends on intensity and exactly where it stalls too, if it stalls to the east of us then it remains as largely rain before this front which develops into some sort of low pressure system clears south as these charts below show..

    gfs..

    12_48_preciptype.thumb.png.c534a72aac5aa6748a34437ec350da2b.png

    12_72_preciptype.thumb.png.283abb342ea1d8698f4c0bcfaa8907f8.png

     

    Arpege..

    12_61_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.c0cc4c51ff95a24b2d4ffed5f1389094.png

    1388282163_12_78_ukpreciptype(2).thumb.png.39922dddca02fc074d3bb469af1e7fad.png

    12_82_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.d6b2f3c25a2376248a94dae19f56f293.png

    Icon..

    125945412_12_72_ukpreciptype(3).thumb.png.b6692e6cdee81846e3b640838cc319bc.png

    12_75_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.f858b99f7a77cc4cf47d962ec7711694.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Interesting to see a second round of runs where the models broadly agree on the general pattern in the mid range.

    We are still some way yet from the outcomes being shown being in the semi reliable timeframe. However to counter that they are at least showing what one might expect with regards to the SSW. So perhaps just a slightly higher level of confidence going forward than might normally be the case.

    Absolutely no point at all speculating on who or where might get a dumping of snow at this range. But great to watch none the less and a billion times better than anything we we had on offer last winter.

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    4 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

    If I had the choice I would choose Gfsp over ECM but that is partly from an imby perspective but also I think the high would move slowly from Griceland to Greenland over time and we could also tap into the colder uppers from the North east which look to be heading towards uk .(apologies if I have read this wrong,just my interpretation of the maps).

     

    34E16E3E-6150-4669-A196-BA5F534545D1.thumb.png.6d8f0f8d217e41378f419efab898e10e.png

    The high  on the next frame  scuppers a stonking easterly making its way westwards. Yes -12 air for eastern England, but even colder uppers would make its way to England if the high moved north

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    ecm last to join the party again,only today decided to join it,gfs and other models beating it again ,it had the Azores high yesterday towards the end,poor performance again.

    Beating it again?...ECM was first on board with the dud easterly a week or so back and has up until this episode (which is till to be decided) largely verified on top.

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    3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    ECM 12z ensemble mean looks good to me.

    t192:

    D92E3640-9556-44BC-87A8-5D58F84B3426.thumb.png.4b6a814790bc99930aefd8b2ea1708c7.png

    t216:

    F3C42EF5-85EF-4097-A3B0-D00C497CC8C7.thumb.png.0737031a2be7b185d3cca80edbaa1a39.png

    t240:

    D2E59F8D-AC94-49A3-9AED-FF07919EBF3F.thumb.png.531aac0ad70ee1d9cac98adbe06fbe35.png

    Good means overall!

    +192 we can see the high go up into Greenland, a strong signal for that

    +216 High is well into Greeland but the block looks in general in the mean , possibly highlighting the uncertainity on how much strength the high will have and also how far north it will go into Greenland

    +240 High seems 'fatter' , wider range of possibilites for the High, it could end up being too west or even east 

    Good ECM flip tho overall, we can now hope to continue this to atleast Friday with minor tweaks and changes, and have UKMO AND GFS somewhat similar to ECM or vice versa

    Have a nice evening and all the best for the pub run later

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton

    Latest Met Office Fax Charts have pinched a few more miles westward for those hoping for a wintry fall - up to 72 hours. Not looking much beyond this timeframe as any further than is likely to be too inaccurate to rely on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Anyone know when the GEFS will be out?  Also, what are the eps extended saying please?

    Don't know Feb,it's been stuck at 78 for a while now

    the day ten EPS clusters look rosy😍,the op in cluster 3

    20210111200029-14c500113677837c5c3e8b7f5bfe44587d906afc.thumb.png.839367b48c73d795a7ed7695959c973f.png

    EXT EPS.

    20210111200309-b3756317fa7d509fcd10878b130c76fc26d26c7e.thumb.png.54e5c3355027fd25f288bee2b88cb263.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    46 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think the GFS run was written off by some far too soon, see my comment at T168, locally poor, but NH decent, and now  T270:

    F251219D-791B-439C-BB4C-AD03B877B118.thumb.png.0b891225509b09f904182b36f85a2452.png98D1A779-121A-4C5F-A850-EE896A7CB1A3.thumb.png.d392e19e88798dd2e4a25192ed987cbf.png

    Maybe a case of GFS ballooning up that Atlantic low?...going by the commentary (before we actually viewed it) sounded worse but not that bad overall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

    Latest Met Office Fax Charts have pinched a few more miles westward for those hoping for a wintry fall - up to 72 hours. Not looking much beyond this timeframe as any further than is likely to be too inaccurate to rely on.

    Hmm, not sure, big mild sector, 10 degrees I guess for our areas

    fax60s.gif?1

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A Day 11 of which even Tony would be proud! image.thumb.png.608f0ffcd5808684618d5c344889c4ea.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    If only it were Day 3!👍

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    I think the "uppers" debacle from the recent cold spell is an interesting thing to discuss.

    The last easterly spell was effectively a moist and slightly to warm air mass that cooled as it headed towards the UK, we also had a lot of maritime airmass that was within a pretty slow moving flow, meaning the ocean warmth had an influence. So even though we managed to eek out some -8 850s the airmass was pretty much the least favourable type for widespread snowfall. Certain places got lucky and the hills did very well in places as you'd expect.

    However this potential flow, is a very very cold airmass that is warming as it heads towards the UK. The origin is a dry and very cold airmass so should be much more favourable for snowfall and nighttime frosts etc. So even though the 850s might look to only reach -8 (which is very cold for the UK) they are from a better place so to speak. We could well see much colder 850s if the flow is favourable but for now "Arctic' 850s are less of a concern.

    2010 had lots of days where 850s were not that cold but we kept that snowfall no problem.

     

    Completely agree. Airmass is close to arctic in origin so even though the 850s are not brutal (because it does have maritime track) many of the parameters should be more supportive of white rather than wet. In its own way the airmass last week was unusual as its rare to have a set up in Dec / Jan where you have uppers of -6 to -8 and just see rain from an easterly. Just about every bit of bad luck possible combined. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton
    7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Hmm, not sure, big mild sector, 10 degrees I guess for our areas

    fax60s.gif?1

    Only a general note, not expecting anything locally, but those further north & east maybe fortunate.

    Edited by DIS1970
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The 500mb height anomaly from the EPS mean at day ten,...that GHP is growing stronger.

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.thumb.png.b836d45e70c3147c2be67a34c474ad03.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    56 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    ecm last to join the party again,only today decided to join it,gfs and other models beating it again ,it had the Azores high yesterday towards the end,poor performance again.

    We don't know that until the outcome is verified all could quite easily flip back to unfavourable synoptics but really hope you are right

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    Posted
  • Location: Brynmawr
  • Location: Brynmawr
    2 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    We don't know that until the outcome is verified all could quite easily flip back to unfavourable synoptics but really hope you are right

    I'm not sharing the love for the ECM charts.  They look ok  but we want better than the recent cold spell, which hardly delivered.  We want deeper cold than whats on offer tonight, hopefully we will see upgrades on future runs.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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