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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
3 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Great ECM and this time I am not going to worry about the damn Uppers! 
 

Sometimed I think we get too much data which makes our heads swim. Back in 1979 you just had the Countryfile 5 day pressure chart to study, no bloody uppers to worry about then!  

Andy

You were lucky to have a tele....

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
3 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Great ECM and this time I am not going to worry about the damn Uppers! 
 

Sometimed I think we get too much data which makes our heads swim. Back in 1979 you just had the Countryfile 5 day pressure chart to study, no bloody uppers to worry about then!  

Andy

Ignorance was bliss!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent

It seems that no matter what the early/mid-term brings us, the end result is a blocked, increasingly colder pattern. Good trends tonight from the Ops. Let's see what the ensembles/EPS have to say.

Edited by Jason H
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Mike Poole said:

I think the GFS run was written off by some far too soon, see my comment at T168, locally poor, but NH decent, and now  T270:

F251219D-791B-439C-BB4C-AD03B877B118.thumb.png.0b891225509b09f904182b36f85a2452.png98D1A779-121A-4C5F-A850-EE896A7CB1A3.thumb.png.d392e19e88798dd2e4a25192ed987cbf.png

Yes, Roger did mention 2 big snow events but seemed a bit less enthusiastic with run as a whole so i took that to mean a bit marginal, that chart there is an absolute belter, -8c across whole country with -10c across half, the half where that shortwave is tracking, gonna be an all snow event that.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.

ECM similar to this morning. From a cold&snow POV good for the North, bad for the South and the continent.
The GH & deep trough are too far to the Northwest for many unfortunately, and we are not talking about details here.
I can only hope there will be some more heights to the Southeast of Greenland, but these are not the stellar runs I was hoping to see.

850hPa Temperatures are impressive over Europe, 2m Temps: not so much.
All that beautiful cold air is wasted over warm Gulfstream waters, the continent is not cold at the surface, covered with clouds. High DP's I think. True cold still far to the East in Russia.

EC 2m temps at 240

EC-240-2mT 11jan12.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, Roger did mention 2 big snow events but seemed a bit less enthusiastic with run as a whole so i took that to mean a bit marginal, that chart there is an absolute belter, -8c across whole country with -10c across half, the half where that shortwave is tracking, gonna be an all snow event that.

Well... North of the M4 at least

56FCB7E5-8FCA-4A1E-B558-A21A5D23A8A7.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para flying out at breakneck speed. 168

Edit : up to 192 now

gfsnh-0-168 (7).png

gfsnh-0-192 (5).png

Going a bit too west perhaps around day 9

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

good to see GFS going for it too, don't want boring trash in quarantine, interesting all the way to 384, dumpings of snow for some, mainly north

gfs-0-210.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Evening, I must admit that I was expecting deeper troughing into British Isles and Europe based on the previous runs ( UKMO ).  Looks a bit too much westerly on this run and born out by higher upper temps. Maybe the second wave will develop and engage the real cold air  to push down. Could all change again in the morning . !

 C

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

ECM/UKMO similar at 144t. ECM  goes on at 168t to develop the second wave and engage the cold air mass to move into the British Isles. Hopefully, UKMO run in the morning will also show that.

ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

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