Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Just now, warrenb said:

Yep looks good at 216, remember this is at 216, and is nothing like the previous run.

?? Not Exactly far off is it? It’s actually very similar to this mornings run sypnotically speaking.

353ECA39-2450-401B-AA7E-F0F7252A51B2.png

27E6D461-13D8-4C8B-AB3B-804572424B1D.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Just now, warrenb said:

Yep looks good at 216, remember this is at 216, and is nothing like the previous run.

Yes but tomorrows 192 won't be like this evenings 216 , that really is nothing new , as long as the trend stays the same 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Just a reminder of the 00z ECM ..it’s not far off what we are seeing now , it’s just a Slight improvement !

97E9B95D-7F59-4719-A294-86EE6723D232.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Much better uppers as well.. on the 240 previous there were still greens over the channel. Even allowing for the 12hour gap.. it’s a vast improvement...

-7 uppers over the south east.. North Sea a degree cooler than start of year and dryer air.. should be ok?
 

image.thumb.png.5865e512cf236e0ce47d64fb45e0d412.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Just a reminder of the 00z ECM ..it’s not far off what we are seeing now , it’s just a Slight improvement !

97E9B95D-7F59-4719-A294-86EE6723D232.png

Just a slight improvement

WOW  

4E3795EA-048B-4B60-8301-F3F13141A3B1.thumb.png.793363f008bdde1f9c1de7b0e93db629.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

Like others have said, that's two good ECM runs in a row now. Now we just need to see consistency for a few days.... But I feel like that's asking for too much. But hey one model has to eventually find the correct outcome!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

@240 still looks very good!!!

ECM1-240.gif

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

E91AD371-3E54-4797-BCE6-A3BA96260FB5.png
 

where is Steve Murr?  What’s the odds now ??‍♂️

While I love this run and think it has a chance, I still will withdraw judgement until I see two ensemble sets that mainly follow this pattern. The old law with the Greenland Ridge/High (whichever you prefer) on the ECM op applies, which is wait until D5.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
15 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Where's them Iberian heights....lol

Will be back on the next run no doubt

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I just hope this ECM run is not an outlier!

I do ......................................................a mild one 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Greenie high locked in between 216 and 240.. more work required on uppers for the south which actually increased by a degree or two between 216 and 240

image.thumb.png.81bf9af6646d4a5f19624ab13dfb5836.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
2 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

Need a channel runner or two to satisfy us southerners..

I would have hoped we would be seeing colder 850’s given the set up..

 

ECM seems to always underplay 850 temps in fi but with this set up you would easily knock a couple of degrees off them nearer the time 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I just hope this ECM run is not an outlier!

I do - a warm one!

ECM delivers again, and it seems the critical period for getting cold going forward is around 132. So we SHOULD start to gain a little more confidence in this evolution, if it appears 12 hours closer on the 0z runs.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This one is for you...

BADB4C2D-F6DF-4141-AB2D-1E927B6453E9.jpeg

Barely worth the bother to be fair, 1-2cms from a usually over-optimistic ECM.

A pretty cold 2nd half of the run from the ECM, little sign of it weakening either as the upper high looks fairly rooted to Greenland, just slowly weakening.

Hard to see a quick evolution out of that from cold, probably would eventually shift towards a west based NAO based on what I can see, but that won't be anytime soon.

 

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I suppose it's game on again now until the next bad run? Deary me, this forum.

 

You know what they say, if you cant stand the heat stay out of the kitchen.......,At least it gives us a bit of escapism in these sad times!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Chilly with an increasing risk of frost

    Once Monday's band of rain fades, the next few days will be drier. However, it will feel cool, even cold, in the breeze or under gloomy skies, with an increasing risk of frost. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Dubai Floods: Another Warning Sign for Desert Regions?

    The flooding in the Middle East desert city of Dubai earlier in the week followed record-breaking rainfall. It doesn't rain very often here like other desert areas, but like the deadly floods in Libya last year showed, these rain events are likely becoming more extreme due to global warming. View the full blog here

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather 2

    Week Ahead: Cool but largely dry until later in the week, when low pressure returns

    We keep a chilly northerly flow going through much of the coming week, especially noticeable in the east. Cloud and rain spreading south Monday, but after that, most places largely dry until later in the week, when it looks to turn more showery. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...