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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Some posts have been deleted. This thread is not the place to discuss ITV forecasts. Please stay on topic. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

So at 192, they didn't phase, so we now have a runner under the high. Could get a cut off high to the north, but if they phase, then it will not happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

ECM 12z looks fantastic at t192.

477A73ED-3A17-4295-ADD9-4638F64CF556.png

Where's them Iberian heights....lol

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Down here last week we had dew points of +1 and 850's of around -7, rained for 2.5 days.

I agree with you Warren, it was the same up here with me, yet 20 mins away in Blackburn they had good settling snow. Expect rain, but a few 'suprises'. We all know what it takes where we each live

Edited by Nicholas B
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

This will do for day 8. Heights into Greenland and looks a bit further east with how the cold air flows, instead of into Atlantic 

image.thumb.png.b1b82928afa063d633837afd119a4d4a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Core Iberian heights dragged west like this mornings GFS and some of yesterday’s runs, quite hilarious that the models have now switched with the GFS showing more dominant heights to our south.

192 an absolute corker

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

That's a gorgeous chart! 

It really is, will probably be a true Greenland high in the next frame... Let's hope for more EPS support later. Positive developments today, when you think where we were just 24 hours ago with that horrible toppler, which fortunately was an outlier

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM very good pattern at T192, but uppers not that cold over UK, slower rise of Greenland ridge than GFS, but much better evolution local to the UK.  Should be a great last 2 charts.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

You just knew as soon as the GFS lost interest, the ECM would pick up the baton. Always the same, great charts from the ECM though. 

I said the other day maybe we're paying too much attention to the GFS & ECM, and it could be a lesser model to lead the way just as in 2018. GEM is leading us to glory!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM has the cleanest evolution with no phasing issues .

Earlier though you won’t get that snow event at day 5 as it doesn’t disrupt energy se so the cold is lifted out before the precip arrives .

So it takes with one hand and gives with the other ! 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM precip chart shows where it thinks the DPs are conducive   

D202A7C9-7425-4EDE-A776-A01A357EEA49.jpeg

2211BD36-0CD7-485F-B0F6-1960AE51DD9D.jpeg

The issue with this event is that there are so many conflicting factors coming into play. The surface conditions are actually reasonable, if marginal, east of the Pennines. With elevation you'd have a better chance, but as you go further west into the Pennines the altitude is offset by the milder uppers. Further east, you're under colder uppers, but too low down/close to the coast you've got the issue of marginal temperatures and dew points.

Looking at the uppers, 925hpa temperatures on EC are far more conducive than the GFS, with the latter restricting much of the snow to the North York Moors which could get an absolute pasting. At lower levels it could easily be a cold rain washout, or a decent snow event. Guess who's drawn the short straw writing the transport forecasts for Scotland and northern England tonight?

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM very good pattern at T192, but uppers not that cold over UK, slower rise of Greenland ridge than GFS, but much better evolution local to the UK.  Should be a great last 2 charts.  

Get the pattern right first, then the uppers will come.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

That N Atlantic/Greenland ridge isn't going anywhere quick with low heights underneath. And now down to T192!

Screenshot_20210111-184526.thumb.png.b0b6b912cc38400f8a6f5f0c2bda46da.png

What next? West based -NAO, or will the next Atlantic low get sucked under the Scandi trough?

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM very good pattern at T192, but uppers not that cold over UK, slower rise of Greenland ridge, but much better evolution local to the UK.  Should be a great last 2 charts.  

That was my initial thought, a recirculation northerly ...weve been here...nice Greenland profile tho.

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