Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[winterof79]

Houston this is Greenland, you are clear for separation

[feb1991blizzard]

39 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Laughing now. Won't be when those heights scupper the trough digging far enough south.

But that doesn't constitute a Bartlett, not saying freezing cold and snow is nailed on yet.

A 'Bartlett' High (also referred to as a 'Eurotrash' High) is a very persistent area of high pressure situated over Europe during the winter months - for Britain this means weeks or months of very mild though often wet and windy weather under a predominantly southwesterly airflow.

Edited January 11, 2021 by Osbourne One-Nil
No need to highlight certain bits. One might think you're up to something,

[Troubleatmill]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

With a strong signal for amplification, it's likely some of this ridging will be shunted towards Greenland, and help to supply the blocking pattern.

 

Looks similar to the 06 and that just sinks it towards north africa

[Singularity]

 

For a week's time, that's one of the smallest run-to-run differences we've seen since the SSW kicked off.

Despite this, you can get a sense of why the run doesn't (reportedly) go on to bring as much cold in or sustain the polar boundary as far south as the 06z. There northwest flank of the trough to the north is less 'clean' and the low near Iceland is slower to move east.

It doesn't take much to make big differences to the details across the UK later on.

[Froze were the Days]

Watch out for those 2 short waves lows phasing at post 144...

[NewEra21]

All I can say is at least Poland has a smile on its face, when you see it you see it

[winterof79]

Separation complete Heights you are clear to advance to Greenland ....out

[Weathizard]

The heights to the south are there on EVERY model, it’s what happens after those heights build in that’s the issue, whether they back west and support our ridge or sink south. Some very strange posts. Side by side comparison of the 6&12z shows very little difference 

[georgiedre]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Yep, way too much wishful thinking in here. See a bit of yellow going north and they are falling over themselves to be first to declare Boom, or amplification or some other nonsense. Heights to the south mean nothing cold for the UK

Let's wait for other runs in the next 24 hrs and see where we stand with nxt week. Looks like a boring week in the west and better to the east ... easy as that hahahhaha

[KTtom]

Wish gfs would start up again to end this argument before its starts, the run finally started like a greyhound out the traps and now has stalled at the worst possible time!

[Frostbite1980]

6 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Laughing now. Won't be when those heights scupper the trough digging far enough south.

Might not quite be a bartlett but those heights are a concern and cause issues unless they either drain away or ridge towards Greenland,  this has been a concern for some time so Warren has a reason to highlight the fact

[sheikhy]

Ecm same as gfs for 72 hours so no snow unfortunately?

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Separation complete Heights you are clear to advance to Greenland ....out

So?...doesn't mean we get a green light for cold, very complex arrangement and timing to get a trough further enough south for cold conditions over the UK. Heights to the south do not help.

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm same as gfs for 72 hours so no snow unfortunately?

But then 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

But then 

Did not see that wow!!!!looks like ukmo!!saturday looking very interesting!!!!please ecm go the same way!

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

So?...doesn't mean we get a green light for cold, very complex arrangement and timing to get a trough further enough south for cold conditions over the UK. Heights to the south do not help.

I don't want an argument i stated heights in to Greenland ....chill

[Barmada_Casten]

Not on a wind up here but none of the mainstream forecasts are going for snow or a wintry mix later this week (which they were up until early hours of the morning) - indeed now they are going for more mild and rain with any wintry weather chiefly located to the hills.

[NewEra21]

In all honesty I don't think the models have even got this week sorted out yet, let alone next week and beyond. Gonna be a few very sore heads in here with people hanging on every run!

[That ECM]

T96 ecm look over to the west in us at the low.  That’s what it had 2 days ago.

Edited January 11, 2021 by That ECM

[Tim Bland]

ECM take on the snow in eastern areas Thursday...

Edited January 11, 2021 by Tim Bland

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

In all honesty I don't think the models have even got this week sorted out yet, let alone next week and beyond. Gonna be a few very sore heads in here with people hanging on every run!

there's a lot of changes still to come, got to be positive

 

[carinthian]

5 hours ago, carinthian said:

Ok just have an update with specifics regarding UK snowfall Wed-Fri this week. Going by the graphics shown on the snow model, the front appears to push through slowly but has what looks like the makings of a returning cold front to lie across the east. So snow potential being flagged up for the Eastern Pennine region especially Thursday into Friday. Maybe some transient snowfall on Wednesday in Scotland and NE England. With-in the parameters a current 20% confidence rating with high complexity , so changes could be swift.

c

Meanwhile, latest fax chart for Thursday shows the front stalling and moving back West . An upgrade in the shorter time span this chart.

C

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Did not see that wow!!!!looks like ukmo!!saturday looking very interesting!!!!please ecm go the same way!

Aye, interesting for Sat, but well in FI! could we see a similar event to another Sat, 4th Feb 2012? may not look it, but good snow day as Atlantic front bumped into cold air

[warrenb]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Meanwhile, latest fax chart for Thursday shows the front stalling and moving back West . An upgrade in the shorter time span this chart.

C

With the 528 line just off the Danish coast. High ground only if lucky for snow with that.

[Met4Cast]

GFS, ECM & ICON all develop the shortwave at the S Tip of Greenland at 120, which prevents a clean injection of heights northwards. The GFS manages to get there with the blocking but blows up the Icelandic low and delays it moving east, as a result the UK ends up mild. UKMO/GEM is the pick of the bunch for me. 

Not really getting any closer to resolving this.