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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    From Roger's link, it looks like the 12z GFS cranks up the Atlantic jet in FI, after a brief cold shot from the N and NE, as I speculated could happen, but enough southerly track to the jet to bring some interesting battleground snow events almost anywhere with cold air in place.

    The words “crank” and “up” need banning in here. The mere mention of them gives them traction....

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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    57 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Ukmo steadies the ship somewhat at 144 with the low cut off... I'll be glad to see the back of this little pain in the ass feature!

     

    UN144-21 (15).gif

    Im liking the UKMO tonight. Im not quite so on the ball with all the variables needed as some others, but after years of viewing charts it just looks right. (I'm a few pages back so will find out others interpretations shortly lol)  

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport
  • Location: Newport
    22 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    I hope that that 'soon' is nothing like the 'Spurs winning the League' 'soon'?😁

    Well it will be cold as hell would have frozen over🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, Man Without Beard said:

    ARPEGE 12Z in UK view. Over 30cm snow in places by Saturday, if this is right!

    image.thumb.png.01a9e35c8944f933311ac791208420e2.png

    Looking at metoffice/BBC local outlook that chart looks miles out.

    Certainly this locale ...

    Hope it is correct of course!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    Hello, are we talkin both GFS v15 and Para v16 or just one - be nice to have one run to view on  a Lockdown Monday without Spoliers 🙂

    GFS operational

    T+240 / 312 / 324 below

    240.thumb.JPG.4c2211073de66f05b7be28258b3a6305.JPG312.thumb.JPG.66461d9c406f2823e587c4abacd989a4.JPG324.thumb.JPG.1acf9fb2aa28267e5f3897ed14a3540d.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    The pacific side just keeps on giving waa in a pumpathon presumably aiding the Arctic high?

    anim_jcx2.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Nothern England and much of Ireland get pasted at 384h FWIW on the hidden 12z GFS

    The whole run looks suspiciously like bogus data contamination when compared to previous runs and other models out at same time. I'm guessing it will be an aberration that gets binned by the pros. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Looking at metoffice/BBC local outlook that chart looks miles out.

    Certainly this locale ...

    Hope it is correct of course!!

    In two minds about the likelihood of this verifying. On the one hand, other models seem to be moving towards more snow at the end of the week than was thought 36 hours ago. On the other hand, ARPEGE has not been as consistent in this cold spell as I've found it in previous years (AROME is my current favourite by only goes out to 36 hours). Gook luck to you, though!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    I have to admit to missing several heart beats 

    anim_kjb4.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    spacer.png9dcc8228f247fcbcc5d60fa82ca499f8.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Two possible snow events in 5 days on the GFS 12 hrs run.

    The day 5 looks similar to the UKMO .  After that a period of cold conditions under the slack high pressure before more drama begins.

    To be honest I’m much more interested in this 5 day period as it’s closeby and ironically could provide more snow for some areas than the long winded later saga which continues to be plagued by shortwave phasing dramas .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    spacer.png9dcc8228f247fcbcc5d60fa82ca499f8.jpg

     

    Those Iberian heights are getting under my skin . . .

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton
    14 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    ARPEGE 12Z in UK view. Over 30cm snow in places by Saturday, if this is right!

    image.thumb.png.01a9e35c8944f933311ac791208420e2.png

    Dream Dream Dream, Dream Dream Dream.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    gfs trickling out now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire

    From what I've seen gfs pushes the cold air out of southern England very quickly. It's a good run for Northern Ireland Scotland and Northern England tho. It's hard to tell from the US site tho so could be wrong 

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    Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford

    Gfs has kept us waiting..... hero or villain?😃

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Hopefully the programmers put the Balloon data in otherwise it will be zonal all the way 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    RIP GFS 🥲 We are all DOOMED!

    Its ok don't panic they're just manually adding charts that have never been seen over the UK 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
    14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    The pacific side just keeps on giving waa in a pumpathon presumably aiding the Arctic high?

    anim_jcx2.gif

    "Pumpathon"🤣🤣🤣🤣 can this term please be used in meteorological terminology from now on ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, V for Very Cold said:

    Gfs has kept us waiting..... hero or villain?😃

    Have you read the last 2 pages 🤣 we know the outcome. It’s not going to be any different in wetter or Meteociel ! We Just need to see if it’s outlier and more importantly what the GFSp view is 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    1 minute ago, AdrianHull said:

    "Pumpathon"🤣🤣🤣🤣 can this term please be used in meteorological terminology from now on ? 

    Beats nailed on and come on board🤣

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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