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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes it can be, in broadly speaking & broadly defined terms. For example, "it will snow in parts of Northern England on Thursday" is largely "nailed on" - meaning the confidence is over 95%.

Of course things can be 'nailed', Kasim... Like rain at T+120hrs when a full-blown blizzard was forecast?

I've been at this game for 60-odd-years and, barring a few noteworthy exceptions, snowfalls fail to materialise more often then they do!

Edited by General Cluster
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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Check out the ICON in motion...

anim_thm4.thumb.gif.3bf8548af349466d6cc914e7fefe7b72.gif

Rain rain and more rain for everywhere south of Colchester enjoy it up north though fellas just hope my break im March to Scottish Highlands isn't moved again (probably will be) I already missed the thundersnow event there in early December because of bloody covid

Edited by Kentspur
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Northwest NI Seasoned

Northwest NI

Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Check out the ICON in motion...

anim_thm4.thumb.gif.3bf8548af349466d6cc914e7fefe7b72.gif

So absolutely everything that passes over Ireland in that time will be rain. I’ll look forward to that. We don’t get nearly enough rain.

Edited by Northwest NI
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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM shows snow for Scotland and eastern areas sat. Probably turning briefly to snow in the south east in the next few frames before clearing. Not too dissimilar to Aperge. Be interesting to see ECM take later 

942FDD1B-13AD-4541-A8F1-69A4693BCCD9.png

C7560B03-3AB1-4533-9655-12544018D2F1.png

AECC2A60-C95C-48F6-A855-E27320A8965A.png

If ecm follows the gem or arpege game on!!the scandi high was fighting back on the 06z ecm so not out the question!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted

So far all of this evenings models have corrected west with the shortwave heading se on Thursday .

This can often be the case when you have high pressure over Scandi . 

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ECOSSE1650 Contributor

ECOSSE1650

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted
1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Rain rain and more rain for everywhere south of Colchester enjoy it up north though fellas just hope my break im March to Scottish Highlands isn't moved again (probably will be) I already missed the thundersnow event there in early December because of bloody covid

You didn't miss much...............just thunder, lightning, hankerchief sized flakes of snow  falling heavily from a pink sky.........................it was glorious. 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

So far all of this evenings models have corrected west with the shortwave heading se on Thursday .

This can often be the case when you have high pressure over Scandi . 

Yes, it is the bog standard correction > towards the centre of the low without any loss of intensity. Loaded with potential for either a slushy event to low levels or a proper snow event. More runs needed. 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

I like the ukmo but as the gfs hasn’t come out I thought this maybe of interest for newbies. Ivalo near the top of Finland is 18 degrees warmer on the 15th compared to the 13th. That 18 degrees gets it up to zero.

E0E6CA80-A358-4359-855D-6F89639710E5.gif

 

EC572DF4-1357-4E51-A42A-F16F41618F18.gif

Edited by That ECM
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I joked about the GFS being turned off yesterday. Oops!

Why!,...what did you do to her ha ha

anyway a cracking UKMO as well as the GEM gunning for it too...

UN144-21.thumb.gif.33290f55ed5993a23f130d701ab6e829.gifgemnh-0-144.thumb.png.34d62f238e579b7bcb74bd44ed2ae960.png

meanwhile the gfs has got stuck in Siberia somewhere

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

No concerns from 12z GEM so far, stout Atlantic upper ridge into Greenland with a northerly with plenty of disturbances heading south.

GEMOPEU12_204_1.thumb.png.8e5b19049e3693406077815bc474188b.pngGEMOPEU12_204_2.thumb.png.8cc62eb293fe744cbd7991533de5627b.png

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I like the ukmo but as the gfs hasn’t come out I thought this maybe of interest for newbies. Ivalo near the top of Finland is 18 degrees warm on the 15th compared to the 13th. That 18 degrees gets it up to zero.

E0E6CA80-A358-4359-855D-6F89639710E5.gif

25B931ED-50A0-482E-8703-4F7C6D1A57DA.gif

Amazing that chart for the 15th - an 80% rounded high between Iceland and Scandi - I don't recall seeing anything like it on 90% of ops and ensembles even just 4 days ago. Am I right about that? If so, what a turnaround! 

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Gem 102, honestly I'm clueless 

gemnh-0-102.png

gemnh-0-108.png

The Stronger-Scandi-High-As-It-Gets-Closer scenario is a serious one to keep an eye on. An outsider for sure, that plays out 72h-144h from now.
It's a big IF, but IF the SH gets even stronger than on GEM now, with lower heights over Europe, we could reach a tipping point, where the High does not dissolve as it did on previous runs, but survives. That would take us into classic territory.

Scandi High - Retrogressing towards Greenland - Supported by amplification in Atlantic.
Cold moving  West in lower latitudes, over South Scandinavia/Baltic/Poland instead of North Scandi/Norwegian sea.

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
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Posted

GFS should be on the way soon:

Quote

Connection issue has been resolved and backlogged data is now pushing to NOMADS and FTPPRD services. Data will be roughly 45-50 minutes late compared to its normal delivery time.

 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

The Stronger-Scandi-High-As-It-Gets-Closer scenario is a serious one to keep an eye on. An outsider for sure, that plays out 72h-144h from now.
It's a big IF, but IF the SH gets even stronger than on GEM now, with lower heights over Europe, we could reach a tipping point, where the High does not dissolve as it did on previous runs, but survives. That would take us into classic territory.

Scandi High - Retrogressing towards Greenland - Supported by amplification in Atlantic.
Cold moving  West in lower latitudes, over South Scandinavia/Baltic/Poland instead of North Scandi/Norwegian sea.

Stop it ,

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

No concerns from 12z GEM so far, stout Atlantic upper ridge into Greenland with a northerly with plenty of disturbances heading south.

GEMOPEU12_204_1.thumb.png.8e5b19049e3693406077815bc474188b.pngGEMOPEU12_204_2.thumb.png.8cc62eb293fe744cbd7991533de5627b.png

Close to a link up with the Arctic high, will it make it! 

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Chertseystreamer79 Enthusiast

Chertseystreamer79

Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

The Stronger-Scandi-High-As-It-Gets-Closer scenario is a serious one to keep an eye on. An outsider for sure, that plays out 72h-144h from now.
It's a big IF, but IF the SH gets even stronger than on GEM now, with lower heights over Europe, we could reach a tipping point, where the High does not dissolve as it did on previous runs, but survives. That would take us into classic territory.

Scandi High - Retrogressing towards Greenland - Supported by amplification in Atlantic.
Cold moving  West in lower latitudes, over South Scandinavia/Baltic/Poland instead of North Scandi/Norwegian sea.

Dirty talk...I love it! 

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