Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[Cuban Zebra]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

You have to laugh don't you?

Two days ago it was modelled as an Ice day

So what’s to say tomorrow it won’t show 3ft of lying snow!!

Everything’s a bit bonkers at the minute with what is happening high up!! I’m just strapping myself in and enjoying the ride!

[Djdazzle]

Simple - if it’s going to rain, I’d rather it was 13c than 3c - much cheaper on the heating.

Our big hope now is that the phasing of the lows isn’t being modelled correctly. Because it’s that which is scuppering our cold chances.

 

[Mucka]

ECM ensembles not outstanding but better than this k mornings if memory serves.

http://www.meteo24.fr/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

[pureasthedriven]

When Exeter does an about turn in three consecutive updates, I don’t think we can have confidence anywhere. Be interesting to see what they say overnight because this evening’s runs don’t put much faith in their current narrative. 

[North East Blizzard]

28 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Why don’t people just focus on the snow chances for this week instead of focusing on FI. We know literally 3-5days if FI right now,

minor warming under way and a split - models will get worse before they get better.

don’t worry what they say for next week because it’ll change a lot.

This is so true. I've stopped looking at every run (granted, home schooling plays a part)  but it is only worth comparing 12z to12z or 18z to 18z, gives a much better analysis of what's going on.

 

Anyway its bleaching it down here, has been a few times recently I'm off to enjoy that. 

[goosey007]

Question ....why on earth do they insist on running the GFS etc 4 times a day ! Its consistency is just laughable.....or perhaps they just need to stick to T168 max Think I'm going to lobby for it.....save alot of people mental breakdowns every 6 hours ..think every 12 is more than enough for mental torment......

[MJB]

192h mean 

[Hullsnow87]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

192h mean 

Good or bad?

[Cheshire Freeze]

40 minutes ago, Mucka said:

As far as NH profile goes GFS is great at day 10 but what's the point?

When the models have proved so totally clueless about an Azores low just a few days away?

Getting really PO with the output, it is no better than 10 years ago

Agree, and the ensembles have been nigh on useless too. The issue being the minority runs can become the majority over the course of a suite or two.

I've seen too many ensemble suites flip over the years. What looks like good agreement on one scenario can soon flip to solid agreement on the other.

The ensemble suite is only as good as the starting data and subsequent algorithms and that's where the limitations with the NWP lie.

[Mapantz]

Several posts moved.

If it's not model discussion, please post over here:

[feb1991blizzard]

21 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM ensembles not outstanding but better than this k mornings if memory serves.

http://www.meteo24.fr/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

worse IMO.

[Bricriu]

10 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 I must say dreadful output all round today where we going to get the cold from I no idea how ever I will hold slight hope on the wording from Mets extended outlook few days ago one or two posters were saying the cold spell is nailed on going by today is out but it’s nowhere near. The talk of snow weekend and even tomorrow it’s not going to be for low lying areas it will only be for the usual suspects Scotland North East England and places like that.  

While the UK Met Office Video is still promising for the UK, it was very much in their thoughts that things could swing  back to ejecting milder air out of the UK as well.

I suppose as misguided as it is to say cold is ever nailed on, it would also be misguided to say winter is over based on today's output. However,  i think it's reasonable to suggest that a  deep cold spell is not looking very likely within the next 12 days unfortunately. Maybe into February our luck will change!

Edited January 13, 2021 by Bricriu

[pureasthedriven]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Several posts moved.

If it's not model discussion, please post over here:

Here’s a thing though. Look at that LP at the tip of Greenland and those Iberian heights in that screenshot. Just shows you what a proper Scandi high coupled with a proper Northem Italy low can do for you. All that talk about Greenie and Iberian heights, psstch...

[Day_9]

Reasons to be cheerful.  Tomorrow’s forecast will be white for many, enjoy it whilst its there!

the trend still says Down!  This ‘blip’ on Sunday / Monday is slowly being eroded and from the 20th they are clueless.  Don’t forget all those inputs being collected from weather balloons etc in an already shot NH....... there is no Atlantic force, and we have a good 6-10 weeks left yet, bearing in mind that March can be quite a snowy month.......

[pages]

I think there is a chance all models could flip back to real cold at very short notice. Just not from the north the Greenland high/Atlantic ridge is not going to happen.

Throughout this week the block to east has been middled further west on each run and still is even to extend that Saturday could be good for snow.

A couple of the ensembles showing the low at 78hr not flattening the high over us as much with the low going off north east with the high amplifying behind to give us a north Easterly at day 5.

We have seen a number of times in past potential Easterly implode at 96hrs. This could be a very rare occasion that we suddenly see In couple of days time models flip to showing Easterly at about 120hr seemingly out of know here.

 

[damianslaw]

Model watching at present should come with a mass disclaimer..

We have seen many sudden short term developments not evident even in 3-4 day model runs.. evidence reliable timeframes are exceptionally short at present. Indeed weather watching has become a nowcast event in the past couple of weeks. Take current conditions, only a day or so ago the models showed the front that moved through today developing a wave and pivot, prior to this it was expected to move swiftly into the north sea.

 

[Cavehill Snow]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

So close 

Some many conflicting signals all trying to impose themselves at the same time - so charts look unrealistic. Just look at that area without any isobars - stretches from N Spain to just south of Iceland and from the Isle of Man to about 500 miles of west coast of Ireland. Will never happen in reality

[damianslaw]

Models are in 100% state of flux.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

Some many conflicting signals all trying to impose themselves at the same time - so charts look unrealistic. Just look at that area without any isobars - stretches from N Spain to just south of Iceland and from the Isle of Man to about 500 miles of west coast of Ireland. Will never happen in reality

Is there a correlation between charts with a low amount of isobars and low verification stats?

[Cavehill Snow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is there a correlation between charts with a low amount of isobars and low verification stats?

Not sure on that. But the col (area with no isobars) is unusually large. It is even more unusual when you see the tightness of the isobars throughout the remainder of the chart. Normally cols are larger in slack pressure gradient scenarios which this chart is not.

[Cryosphere.]

14 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

Some many conflicting signals all trying to impose themselves at the same time - so charts look unrealistic. Just look at that area without any isobars - stretches from N Spain to just south of Iceland and from the Isle of Man to about 500 miles of west coast of Ireland. Will never happen in reality

Pin the donkey on the tail...

[A Frayed Knot]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models are in 100% state of flux.

Yeh REFLUX... Stick to beeb forecasts or your own regional threads as its just now cast from here onwards. 

Next week it gets more exiting and the charts are all over the shop ann nothing is set in stone. 

I could say what I think is going to happen but I shall leave that in my regional group without all the doom and gloom and throwing toys out of the pram when you don't see it snowing in your area. Yeh we need to see it falling but we still got over a month and a half of winter to surprise us. 

Enjoy the up north. Lucky peeps

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

56 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Question ....why on earth do they insist on running the GFS etc 4 times a day ! Its consistency is just laughable.....or perhaps they just need to stick to T168 max Think I'm going to lobby for it.....save alot of people mental breakdowns every 6 hours ..think every 12 is more than enough for mental torment......

If you think GFS is laughable then check out the CFS, it goes out for 9 months on the Meteociel site

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

Early daffodils anyone?

They’re already out in the a south West! 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Going to start up a new thread in a bit as, with the way things have been, a little refresh I think is needed. Has been quite an exhuasting few days Model-wise, especially with the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) events bringing all sorts of twist and turns to the models.