Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[Mucka]

As far as NH profile goes GFS is great at day 10 but what's the point?

When the models have proved so totally clueless about an Azores low just a few days away?

Getting really PO with the output, it is no better than 10 years ago

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is where 18z is leading to as a slower burner ...if this doesn’t become sensational...then woooah!

 

BFTP

 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, MJB said:

Just wondering how you can write  the cold spell off after a few frames of the GFS OP ,  the OP could be the mildest in the pack or one of them with very little support 

 Not writing it off, but today’s output isn’t looking very positive. Of course with FI being quite early, it could change. But with all of the volatility, the ensembles will be next to useless. A couple of days ago there was strong ensemble support for a cold spell, which has all but disappeared.

[Ice Day]

The 18z at 234 v 12z 240

  

I mean, pick the bones out of that...... absolute chaos.  In 10 days time, we could have anything from mild south westerlies to frigid weather from the north/north east.  One thing is for sure, nothing is 'nailed' yet.

 

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Lol it was only 2 days ago people was saying locked into a cold spell coming and now it’s the opposite. I say again why do we look so far into the future and take the runs as gospel. There all over the shop. Normally I’d say look upto say 144 but as things stand with ssw and that only take note upto 90 hrs. Anything after is just for a trend. The trend as of today is cool but not cold enough for snow for many.

not what I wana see and say but that’s how it is in my eyes

I don't recall one post saying anything cold was locked in? And I haven't seen a post this evening say mild is locked in?

We can only comment on what the charts are showing.

I do think people make up their own version of this thread sometimes!

 

[ALL ABOARD]

So we've had a major SSW 

Followed by a another minor warming so two reversals in as many weeks. 

FI is currently at day 3 because the models can't work out the conflicting factors and now we have a big ass pacific ridge that wants to flex its muscles in the artic. 

If we don't see at least one major outbreak before the end of winter then I'd give up chasing cold forever(not really) 

Insane charts for January 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Why don’t people just focus on the snow chances for this week instead of focusing on FI. We know literally 3-5days if FI right now,

minor warming under way and a split - models will get worse before they get better.

don’t worry what they say for next week because it’ll change a lot.

If the models were confident of a good show dumping, I think people would focus on that. But for a lot of people, it’s looking marginal. Even the hi res models don’t look too good for those in the south.

[Jamie M]

 

AROME 18z 

[Allseasons-Si]

Uncertainty springs to mind at a very early stage...,(black circle),this from the 12z gefs

There are two scenario's there,one being that we get the cold in early by most of the ens or we have flip flop weather down on the south beach,the op and control with a few ens go for flip flop beach weather,OK not that warm i know but you get where i am coming from

shannon calls in high regard at 96 hrs FWIW,the SSW is by far playing havoc on the NWP'S that's for sure

then out of the blue the gfs somehow pulls a fast one...

there could be a link up of heights from the Atlantic sector to the Pacific!, that could be fun.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS mean further West again at shortish range, The big girl's got the TCP ready now.

[Griff]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

As far as NH profile goes GFS is great at day 10 but what's the point?

When the models have proved so totally clueless about an Azores low just a few days away?

Getting really PO with the output, it is no better than 10 years ago

 

9 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

This is where 18z is leading to as a slower burner ...if this doesn’t become sensational...then woooah!

 

BFTP

 

Hi... I'm new, so indulge me for a moment. Ta. Not a moan, more a query regarding how much faith to have beyond 3 or 4 days. 

The output has been so volatile over the last 24/48 hours, it would appear the consensus is that the outlook is bleak. 

Is there anything to support a "shuffling the pack" hypothesis other than wishful thinking? 

Other have commented that the Atlantic is picking up again whilst my favourite gfsp and others have suggested over the last week or so that a west based -nao is also likely. 

Wishful thinking that nothing is resolved yet, or a fair assessment? 

Thanks. 

 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Griff

[MJB]

So close 

[mrsmall]

Just now, MJB said:

So close 

Have we ever seen a link up in our lifetime? Would some screen grabs to show the grandchildren

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

 

Hi... I'm new, so indulge me for a moment. Ta. Not a moan, more a query regarding how much faith to have beyond 3 or 4 days. 

The output has been so volatile over the last 24/48 hours, it would appear the consensus is that the outlook is bleak. 

Is there anything to support a "shuffling the pack" hypothesis other than wishful thinking? 

Other have commented that the Atlantic is picking up again whilst my favourite gfsp and others have suggested over the last week or so that a west based -nao is also likely. 

Wishful thinking that nothing is resolved yet, or a fair assessment? 

Ta

 

A fair assessment.

Especially when considering the actual weather and amount of cold over our tiny Island.

Big picture is that we are still favouring a cold outbreak from the NE though perhaps delayed indefinitely

One scenario that has been consistent is for a clear boundary between very cold air and milder Atlantic air setting somewhere in our local somewhere now near 21.23 Jan

It could be very snowy or very wet depending how far SW that boundary can dig as the Atlantic looks like it will disrupt low pressure to our South final week of Jan.

Crystal ball stuff so keep watching, unless you have hair then keep your hair instead.

[weathercold]

Unquestionably high levels of NWP volatility currently due to the recent SSW. However, it does feel we have taken a few big steps back over the last 24 hrs in terms of advecting any deep cold towards us.

So much promise recently but the trend is clearly moving in the wrong direction...for now. Let’s hope we see a better set of runs over the next 24 hrs, still enough volatility to give us hope things may change for the better over the next week but time is quickly running out. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

This is where 18z is leading to as a slower burner ...if this doesn’t become sensational...then woooah!

 

BFTP

 

It’s a wooaah!   How does the GFS ness that up?

 

BFTP

[Man With Beard]

Early daffodils anyone?

[Bullseye]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s a wooaah!   How does the GFS ness that up?

 

BFTP

Clue in the title in this one - it's the good old GFS pub run but in the middle of trying to work how to deal with SSW for good measure! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Everyone, please go to bed and look at these charts of 1989. It could be an awful lot worse. Anyone would want to puke if this was in the immediate timeframe! That’s what you call a raging PV and uncle Barty saying hi! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Lets be honest,....we haven't got a scooby what happens next week TBF

this week is proving to be a headache never mind the next

and i wish you all the best for tomorrow as this is the focal point as to what happens after

Saturday looks to be a snow to rain event but what happens after that,...well?

goodnight peeps

snow day for some i am sure

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Early daffodils anyone?

The old run says we're going to need a boat instead!

 

[bluearmy]

Low thicknesses widely across the arctic although the majority of the tpv seems to be just to our northeast ........ not for detail, just an observation of an option .....

  

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Early daffodils anyone?

You have to laugh don't you?

Two days ago it was modelled as an Ice day

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Everyone, please go to bed and look at these charts of 1989. It could be an awful lot worse. Anyone would want to puke if this was in the immediate timeframe! That’s what you call a raging PV and uncle Barty saying hi! 

But if the current blocking leads to nothing and we remain mild and wet is there really much difference?

If theres a 1080 greenland block but it does didly squat for us in the UK why should I care all that much?

Most people here just want to see snow outside on the ground and don't care for much else, as long they get they're happy.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Everyone, please go to bed and look at these charts of 1989. It could be an awful lot worse. Anyone would want to puke if this was in the immediate timeframe! That’s what you call a raging PV and uncle Barty saying hi! 

At least you can look at those charts and just get on with your life.

The constant chasing of day 10 charts is draining.

The summary of today's runs, is turning colder but not cold enough without significant rainfall.

As Captain Tom says "Tomorrow will be a good day"

Here's hoping.