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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Again, this run will be 50/50 from 120hrs onwards. Any model in my opinion is only as good as its last error! The last GFS run still moved it’s forecasted precipitation all over the place at less than 36 hours out. They’ve not got a clue, and have a tendency to lose the plot when it comes to unorthodox, non default patterns, such as a SSW event and a slight reversal in zonal setup! 

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted
47 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Is it a good thing or a bad thing for cold

It's something to keep an eye on whether it happens we will need to wait and see as the models are continuing to bring different outcomes from run to run which will probably continue for some time until they fully understand the exact tropospheric response to the SSW but this tweet from yesterday is one possibility 

 

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon really going for the snow Sat...

F5F1C8B0-7B1B-42DC-A46D-EDD04E7D69C2.png

Thats accumulative since +0 i assume majority shown there falls Tomorrow? 

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Fax looks fantastic for another snow event saturday!!can anyone provide an update from ukv for saturday?!!

Trouble with Saturday is it will be a snow to rain event, whereas tomorrow is a rain to snow event, much rather have the latter. There is milder air behind Saturday's front, any lying snow will quickly be washed aside..

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
8 minutes ago, MKN said:

Thats accumulative since +0 i assume majority shown there falls Tomorrow? 

This is up until tomorrow night...

9FFF90C8-AFC1-4647-B2B2-CE8109BDAA55.png

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Trouble with Saturday is it will be a snow to rain event, whereas tomorrow is a rain to snow event, much rather have the latter. There is milder air behind Saturday's front, any lying snow will quickly be washed aside..

Not if you make a big snow man then put it under cover

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Trouble with Saturday is it will be a snow to rain event, whereas tomorrow is a rain to snow event, much rather have the latter. There is milder air behind Saturday's front, any lying snow will quickly be washed aside..

Aperge has more of an undercut so not much rain on the back edge..

1932ECF9-0198-4006-BB29-17EFF1FAD067.png

B90A1704-8179-406F-B3CA-6980A36A0D26.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The gfs for tomorrow evening...

gfs-2-24.thumb.png.3c84361c92ccd71ef88d6be9949e778b.png

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Thinon Contributor

Thinon

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

This is up until tomorrow night...

9FFF90C8-AFC1-4647-B2B2-CE8109BDAA55.png

The trouble with these charts is they don't take into account any probable interim thawing or the negative impact on accumulations during rain to snow (or snow to rain) events. These are best taken with a pinch of salt, even at this relatively close range.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

As said yesterday expecting lots of flip flopping from models at present, so I am not commenting on them tonight, as I don't have much confidence in their output at a very short timescales, 72 hrs tops...

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

Ominous at 126

gfsnh-0-126.png

Im getting the feeling we could end up with a much colder easterly when this is all sorted.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Didn’t mind the 12z at t132

image.thumb.png.4d909179d511ad34c22f4c2ccd8bccc7.png
 

but the 18z same timeframe ....yes please 

 

image.thumb.png.73306f7d89da3b50507e3651e70eb630.png

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Didn’t mind the 12z at t132

image.thumb.png.4d909179d511ad34c22f4c2ccd8bccc7.png
 

but the t126 18z....yes please 

Am I missing something . It looks ghastly and worse than the 12hrs run . Or have you been on the sherry! Lol

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Didn’t mind the 12z at t132

image.thumb.png.4d909179d511ad34c22f4c2ccd8bccc7.png
 

but the 18z same timeframe ....yes please 

 

image.thumb.png.73306f7d89da3b50507e3651e70eb630.png

 

BFTP

? For cold by day 10 (ish) again? 

?‍♂️ 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

Am I missing something . It looks ghastly and worse than the 12hrs run . Or have you been on the sherry! Lol

That's what I thought too

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

The ops have swayed towards a slight to moderate negative NAO in the 6 to 7 day period. This has had a knock on effect of delaying anything 'meaningfully' cold from arriving to our shores. Still some nice snow opportunities from the Midlands northwards starting as early as tomorrow. 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

Am I missing something . It looks ghastly and worse than the 12hrs run . Or have you been on the sherry! Lol

Agreed - doesn't look good to me 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
  • Popular Post
Posted
7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Didn’t mind the 12z at t132

image.thumb.png.4d909179d511ad34c22f4c2ccd8bccc7.png
 

but the 18z same timeframe ....yes please 

 

image.thumb.png.73306f7d89da3b50507e3651e70eb630.png

 

BFTP

Easily pleased Fred ...... bit like a rump steak for dinner ordered on Monday has been subbed with a spam fritter two days later. Still a meal but ......

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

GFSp has the ridge hanging on by its fingernails

gfsnh-0-132.png?18gfsnh-0-144.png?18

We just about come out the right side by 144.

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Am I missing something . It looks ghastly and worse than the 12hrs run . Or have you been on the sherry! Lol

Exactly what I thought.

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