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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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jayb1989 Contributor

jayb1989

Posted
Posted

18Z looking really good 

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Before the usual riff raff log in and start complaining that 850hPa temperatures are 0.2c too warm, this is a very good run from the GFS.

18z.thumb.png.aa36619250c0712467ec3552425303e2.png

More in-line with the earlier GEFS suite and very similar to the ECM, if not a touch better.

Blimey, this used to be a place where people could express an honest opinion about what the charts were showing.. now anyone who points out something that is a realistic issue, they are riff raff!? Do we not have moderators on this forum!?

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WINTRY WALES Aficionado

WINTRY WALES

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
Posted

Would it be expected that the northern battle ground line we see on Thursday shall drop further down the country in to next week bringing more of the country in to play if further precipitation travels in? 

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andy989 Rising Star

andy989

Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Aint gonna happen is it. When was the last time we saw 24 hours of heavy snow?

image.thumb.png.160dbe51400b0ba8f367870941e46877.png
 

Not 24 but I had 18 hours non stop in 2013 and had to dig myself out the front door, this was when I lived 3 miles from the Irish sea at  250ft asl.

Last Friday I had 9 hours of snow, but I now live 1000ft asl. 

 

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Obviously now the para is not as good

Looks okay to me? 

Snow still there for Thursday
image.thumb.png.02b932c15f836c6937ce200de52bd8d1.png

and the low is much further south for next tuesday

 image.thumb.png.b8f82b8131764805c0958407c742d5f4.png

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)

The pub run is already much better than the 12z earlier so I’m happy. Too early to be worrying about snow chances at this stage on charts that are going to change frequently over the coming days anyway.

D0A3AAA8-F5F8-4830-92F1-C901BE37D619.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted

This pattern is a bit perplexing to say the least... 

A few days ago we were watching a lobe of the vortex drop down into Europe and move eastward.. 

The last few days the runs are still showing a lot of westerly momentum to the point on the latest GFS where the lobe dosent drop at all. 

Not sure what's going on tbh? 

Para goes off one this time, be nice to just have consistency for a change. 

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, radiohead said:

spacer.png

Good God . . . did you have to ? 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

If you ask me this is a much better run than ECM, yes it doesn’t go straight into Greenland but it is positioned so much better, here T216:

E4DABCD1-C935-4CAC-9712-F4AEA7BD52D3.thumb.png.29e7b4b9d6a119896a66cacac39abf3d.pngD29E303F-154D-461D-BD2E-276BF0AB3BB4.thumb.png.cb5d276cdd096f2c085b82cd1e4c3c3e.png

Those worried about heights in Spain, well all is needed is something to remove them!  Good run this.  

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

No west based negative NAO so far so I won’t go into one ! 

The Greenie ridge Arctic high combo is important here and it would be great if they could force the troughing se and allow a more ne flow .

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

GFSP for comparison at 162

gfsnh-0-162.png

gfsnh-0-162 (1).png

GFS(p) is definitely not as good this evening but I’m not going to worry too much unless the GEFS/EPS significantly shift towards this tomorrow morning.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
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Posted

I saw an earlier indication that the ECM was suggesting repeating  anticyclonic Atlantic wave breaks. And the one at T+240 wasn’t too west based. Good to see the gfs following suite. Reinforcement of the Atlantic block will give us far better opportunities at delivering longer and colder synoptic results. 

7F1349F0-D808-4064-BBFB-5D62F75B626F.thumb.jpeg.e4bf39dc893d2f51afbe24b2b82b3cb8.jpeg

64259DA1-E107-4CDB-9BA3-F7AD4253CA21.thumb.jpeg.a0681c9e78f49267a28fe02ffed22467.jpeg

brings us far greater chances even further south

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
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Posted
6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

spacer.png

I will take that, now everyone gets nothing and that will stop the imby rubbish that is going on

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Very nerve racking. We are getting there, but it doesn’t come without nervously watching them heights and vital separations of shortwaves! The 18z gets the cold in quicker, and also a more eastward concentration of heights around Greenland, placing us in the colder, less marginal air! 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

If you ask me this is a much better run than ECM, yes it doesn’t go straight into Greenland but it is positioned so much better, here T216:

E4DABCD1-C935-4CAC-9712-F4AEA7BD52D3.thumb.png.29e7b4b9d6a119896a66cacac39abf3d.pngD29E303F-154D-461D-BD2E-276BF0AB3BB4.thumb.png.cb5d276cdd096f2c085b82cd1e4c3c3e.png

Those worried about heights in Spain, well all is needed is something to remove them!  Good run this.  

You took the words right out of my mouth. Definitely a correlation between one's own patience and how well this will be greeted... 

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Long haul to mild Community Regular

Long haul to mild

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
Posted

Wow, that low deepens very rapidly as it moves across the country next week on the 18Z. Real issue with high winds if that came off.

 

 

4E44EADB-B1BC-498F-93AB-51F849C4837E.jpeg

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

A rain/snow mix shifting Southeast on Thursday. Short term output changing quite quickly! Although, I wouldn't be expecting a great deal the further South you are..

1266173490_viewimage(4).thumb.png.2f52937f470eb4ff6a980733d72ea525.png 52039709_viewimage(5).thumb.png.24d8198fdd66e5fb3557a14aca8cbbef.png 1386290901_viewimage(6).thumb.png.195fcbbae4ddad51d191841dd90cefc8.png

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted (edited)

Wow boooooooooooom

kaboooooooom

the pub run gives the south a complete snow fest 

we would be snowed in

Cant wait for the 0z now

just as much that happening 

as anything else next week

Getting really boring now

just saying

Edited by snowbob
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
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Posted

For those looking purely for imby charts go visit the regional. Its fab. Then the model thread can be just that. 

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A rain/snow mix shifting Southeast on Thursday. Short term output changing quite quickly! Although, I wouldn't be expecting a great deal the further South you are..

1266173490_viewimage(4).thumb.png.2f52937f470eb4ff6a980733d72ea525.png 52039709_viewimage(5).thumb.png.24d8198fdd66e5fb3557a14aca8cbbef.png 1386290901_viewimage(6).thumb.png.195fcbbae4ddad51d191841dd90cefc8.png

Any frames before it left the North at all please. 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

I would snap your arm of for the pub run . And no I don’t live in the north

448CF849-70A1-4500-912D-6E65B71D9A29.png

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Any frames before it left the North at all please. 

I apologise for not posting ones ahead of it, I should have said it in the post before.. Some decent accumulations showing over high ground, Pennines etc. UKV pretty much mirrors the current warnings in place.

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