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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
2 hours ago, Climate Man said:

Slight upgrade on previous run but Iberian heights remain an issue. 

Im on page 41, and this reply will be out of context, but the 'Iberian heights' are essentially a consequence of the pattern to the north. Its basically cause and effect. Normally those Euro heights will be the 'cause' and the pattern surrounding is the 'effect'. In this circumstance the Euro heights are the 'effect' rather than the 'cause' if that makes sense.

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daz_4 Community Regular

daz_4

Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
Posted
5 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

I find it hard to understand (so please tell me) why this is a good chart, the cold air eroses the Greenlandhigh.

ECMOPEU12_144_2.png

You are not alone. Strong western flow and all cold air gone from Europe.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Yes a very good ECM at 168 synoptically, now we just need to get those colder uppers in...

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.7f91bca910a91b3b99cbb45609f8a7d0.gifECH0-168.thumb.gif.c6aecb36f9011481e7bbdf6a719b256a.gif

 

 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)

Great consistency from the ECM 00z ~ 12z ! Looking at the precip charts which show hour by hour ..the precip is sitting right on the south coast at exactly the same time 

4F00037C-1FE4-43F1-82C8-6A16C6515574.gif

883C83C8-2E4C-4EF2-A0CA-CEC421A61F4D.gif

3E0DF346-5B1D-4C41-A1ED-E4B02C500B1D.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
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sebastiaan1973 Experienced

sebastiaan1973

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes a very good ECM at 168 synoptically, now we just need to get those colder uppers in...

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.7f91bca910a91b3b99cbb45609f8a7d0.gifECH0-168.thumb.gif.c6aecb36f9011481e7bbdf6a719b256a.gif

 

 

Please check how the isobars are drawn. The cold air from the Arctic makes a detour.

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted
5 minutes ago, BenFreeman_91 said:

Hello, I would be grateful if somone could provide their view on snow chances for tomorrow / Thursday? I live 10 miles north of Peterborough and I have seen a couple of posts hinting that Peterborough could get some now? Met Office app showing cold rain for two days!

We had rain icons in Manchester on Saturday two weeks ago which brought a decent surprise snow covering

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM T192:

5265E134-EA01-42D8-900C-6724FAE4B66F.thumb.png.28540af570c74084cdf05e63e05997dc.pngACC93596-3D96-4A19-BDD5-073C29EBE050.thumb.png.86c222ad0f9efc95b8fc467501150534.png

Like the GEM, for me at the moment this is setting up shop too far west to get the real cold to our shores quickly. 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
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Posted

If anyone complains about this ecm then i really dunno what theyre looking at!!not only does it upgrade the snow for thursday but it stays cold throughout!!!with many more chances coming for snow coming up!!

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

If anyone complains about this ecm then i really dunno what theyre looking at!!not only does it upgrade the snow for thursday but it stays cold throughout!!!with many more chances coming for snow coming up!!

Yep for us and further north its fine  expect many in the south need it colder  

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

If anyone complains about this ecm then i really dunno what theyre looking at!!not only does it upgrade the snow for thursday but it stays cold throughout!!!with many more chances coming for snow coming up!!

But it's not even as cold as it was over Christmas up to day 8. 

Should be good though, by day.....10. 

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192:

5265E134-EA01-42D8-900C-6724FAE4B66F.thumb.png.28540af570c74084cdf05e63e05997dc.pngACC93596-3D96-4A19-BDD5-073C29EBE050.thumb.png.86c222ad0f9efc95b8fc467501150534.png

Like the GEM, for me at the moment this is setting up shop too far west to get the real cold to our shores quickly. 

Do we need the GH to link up ?

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Garthvader Enthusiast

Garthvader

Posted
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
Posted

Just a quick question(New to all this) if there is another ssw occurring would tgis come into play at some point to help push the vortex out of sync even further?

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted

I’m going to stick my neck out and say Thursday the snow will go much further south than expected. It seems to be trending more south and en evolution of the GEM idea is likely for me. I know some don’t rate GEM but I think it’s done well lately

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Valleyboy Contributor

Valleyboy

Posted
  • Location: Brynmawr
  • Location: Brynmawr
Posted
2 hours ago, phil nw. said:

If you read my post i commented how the changes to the 500 pattern have been counting down to within 10 days now.The switch to cold will develop from there but a step backwards it ain't.

All the charts are disappointing to be honest.  All looking marginal on low ground.

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NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

If anyone complains about this ecm then i really dunno what theyre looking at!!not only does it upgrade the snow for thursday but it stays cold throughout!!!with many more chances coming for snow coming up!!

Agreed, ideally things could be a bit further east. But the pattern is all that matters currently, get that set and the surprises will follow. Just as we saw a few weeks ago.

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

If anyone complains about this ecm then i really dunno what theyre looking at!!not only does it upgrade the snow for thursday but it stays cold throughout!!!with many more chances coming for snow coming up!!

Apart from all the frigid uppers.bleeding into North America because the pattern is too far west while we bathe in mere -4 uppers, IMO no where near as good as previous runs on various output 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, Johnp said:

But it's not even as cold as it was over Christmas up to day 8. 

Should be good though, by day.....10. 

We went through this before at Xmas... Uppers were modelled at -4 or -5 at 7 days out, when they got here they were -8

Also the source of air will mean lower dew points this time.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, Timmytour said:

Do we need the GH to link up ?

With the arctic high, I presume you mean?  Ideally yes, but this run looks quite a long way from that at the moment.  

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AFCBSNOW Contributor

AFCBSNOW

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

How many times does it have to be said in here?? Get the pattern first, then the cold will come, some people really need to take a couple of days off I think.  You would thrown every member of your family under the bus for half of these synoptics over the last 10 years!!

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NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted
1 minute ago, CSC said:

I’m going to stick my neck out and say Thursday the snow will go much further south than expected. It seems to be trending more south and en evolution of the GEM idea is likely for me. I know some don’t rate GEM but I think it’s done well lately

GEM has been one of the most consistent models of the past few days, not had the ups and downs of most models.

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

But it's not even as cold as it was over Christmas up to day 8. 

Should be good though, by day.....10. 

The point is the key part of this evolution starts at day 5/6 once you get past that; it’s cold in some way or another, too many looking at micro differences rather than the pattern in general Imo

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted
Just now, NewEra21 said:

GEM has been one of the most consistent models of the past few days, not had the ups and downs of most models.

I know! The temperatures forecast from it have been spot on in my area here too. I think it has built its reputation 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
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Posted

I think, on balance, this NW Atlantic ridge is going to verify. I know in theory one should wait for D5, but I'm content to go early because the tilt of the lows coming off Canada are so negative by D5, the models will have to be extremely wrong for there to be a turnaround. Usually the GFS finds an extra low to pump across Greenland around this time, but I don't think that's going to happen, because any new low looks far more likely to go under the block than over it. Greenland ridge here we come! Next fence: west based -NAO.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Fear not gang , cold arrived bang on time - 20th , with scattered snow showers ~ whilst we await something more substantial from the south west...

97BB72CA-DBD1-4A05-A911-3DF6ADC4E338.jpeg

1E719091-480C-40C6-99C7-CA39358E716D.jpeg

F6CC06D7-79B5-444A-9249-2DC1B7D0CD6A.jpeg

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Popular Post
Posted

Putting the uppers to one side for a moment, it’s great to see that the ECM is still establishing a HLB over Greenland. Our issue before was that the mid Atlantic ridge collapsed before any notable uppers turned up. If a decent HLB sets up then eventually we should get there with the uppers. Just my thoughts anyway.?‍♂️ 

8F3FB6C6-6C8F-49FC-9448-C3D6A0D2E992.png

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