Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, makes a change from recent years where those charts have shown practically the whole world red, one for @BLAST FROM THE PAST

Makes you think with the Japan warm anomaly as they are experiencing record snow and temperature challenging records too.

I like it

BFTP

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Not bad T+384 charts... Nothing to do with day-to-day detail of course... But I'm liking the southerly-tracking jet stream. Likelihood of verification? Ooh, about 0%!

    

Custer, Aye 0 chance, as it's a 90's childhood chart, rain S of M4, snow north

[TSNWK]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Just a quick word on potential W based neg NAO (more phasing dramas)

First of all let's get past the first phasing hurdle (nearly there)

As for the trough dropping too far W and phasing with the shortwave trough undercutting the Atlantic ridge later, two things.

1. It would almost certainly still give us a cold spell unless it dropped further W still and allowed the SW trough to develop to our SW  instead of phasing cleanly. The ensuing cold would not be the depth of cold we could get by ant means with a boundary between the frigid air mass to our NE and warmer air to our SW possibly somewhere over the UK. Historically these set up somewhere over S England/midlands but can be further S or further N, These set ups give massive dumpings of snows at the boundary lines (unless it is too far s) as Atlantic lows disrupt against the cold air mass.

2. The low is likely to drop further E than some of W based runs have shown. It won't be a massively dissimilar situation to what we have just seen where the low was originally modelled to drop S much further W (except by UKMO that has it too far E)

Jan 9th V Jan 17th

So UKMO could be best guidance tomorrow on where it will actually be placed with ECM which I believe will be corrected E not W even though that goes against the norm of us getting another busted cold spell

NIce post. Thank you! you're right we so often berate the models, our luck when things start to trend East. Could really do with something like on that ECM, gone a little flat in here..

[Man With Beard]

43 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Puddles or snowmen? That’s going to be the million dollar question for most I expect in the next few weeks! High risk but high reward and a lot more exciting than anything we have had for years! ️

On the positive side, if you're after a snowed-in blizzard, such charts represent the best chance of getting one.

[winterof79]

In correct assesment

Edited January 12, 2021 by winterof79
Wrong

[Frosty.]

I remember 10 years ago in the build up to the Epic Dec freeze there were model wobbles aplenty, one in particular from the ecm..it’s the general trend that excites me most and I think we are rapidly approaching the tipping point now..for what it’s worth I’m backing the experts who say Scandinavian cold will be spreading down across most of the u k during next week with associated snow / wintry hazards!...looking at the Gfs 12z op...there’s snow in the outlook....there could be mountains of snow in the outlook and bitter cold..sorry..I got a bit carried away there..thought I was Mr Crazy Snowman / Fan! ️ 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Jon Snow

[winterof79]

Complicated or what? 

[Richard Fisher]

As a casual observer model fatigue is setting in.  I don’t hold much hope for the ECM. I just wish we could only see up to 144 hours rather than chasing random generated 200 plus phantom charts.

[NewEra21]

3 minutes ago, saintkip said:

What a lovely chap

I know right, just no need whatsoever for that sort of post. We're all here because we're excited about the potential and then someone had to post something like that. I don't care if you're from the N,W, S or east. I just hope we can all enjoy the fun and games!

Edited January 12, 2021 by NewEra21

[NewEra21]

2 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

As a casual observer model fatigue is setting in.  I don’t hold much hope for the ECM. I just wish we could only see up to 144 hours rather than chasing random generated 200 plus phantom charts.

Yeah I think hanging on every run can just completely drain the fun out of any cold chase.

But the overall pattern is what's most promising, and that's the main thing run to run. The finer details won't sort themselves out until nearer the time, just as we're seeing with this current week.

[Tim Bland]

GEFS still great, I’d say this cold spell is Blue Taked on now!  ...

[Matt H]

Another decent set of GEFS 12z ensembles this evening, albeit with slightly more scatter than the 06z suite. Still a noteworthy cluster of runs breaching the -10C uppers though so the potential is still there.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Weather vane]

I can see some downbeat sentiment based on 850 temps, but I for one am really excited by what's coming up. There has been excellent cross model consistency the last few days for upcoming cold from the NE, so I think we're very close to nailing that part of the equation. Unlike the last cold spell, we have real opportunity for significant snow, or even blizzard conditions, given the LPs that look likely to be hanging around. Just need the temp to play ball. It also look to me that the cold wont disappear quickly (hope I haven't jinxed it). Haven't been this excited about the winter models for a long time (well, since 2018 anyhow).

Edited January 12, 2021 by Weather vane

[Daniel*]

22 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

As a casual observer model fatigue is setting in.  I don’t hold much hope for the ECM. I just wish we could only see up to 144 hours rather than chasing random generated 200 plus phantom charts.

Believe it or not we are getting closer. Day 7 from ECM 00z anyone would snap that up?

 

[DEYS(Kent)]

IMBY, GFS mean doesn’t reach -5 850 throughout..

Still great Synoptics though..

[NewEra21]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Believe it or not we are getting closer. Day 7 from ECM 00z anyone would snap that up?

 

Let's just hope the 12z looks like that now

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

IMBY, GFS mean doesn’t reach -5 850 throughout..

Still great Synoptics though..

Looking forward to the next few weeks we have a not seen models trending cold in agreement like this for years

[78/79]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Believe it or not we are getting closer. Day 7 from ECM 00z anyone would snap that up?

 

Plenty of other winters where people would have sold their Granny  for charts half as good as that.

[Battleground Snow]

@sheikhy

 

[BARRY]

Just now, 78/79 said:

Plenty of other winters where people would have sold their Granny  for charts half as good as that.

open to offers 

[Tim Bland]

ECM further south with the snow..

!! Shakey!!  Will be pleased  

[MKN]

2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM further south with the snow..

!! Shakey!!  Will be pleased  

Another shift west i think would be good for a lot more of us. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Imby comment removed

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I’m pretty sure with a decent cold continent, you can have a full blown blizzard with 0c uppers! I think someone back over the years mentioned that the Dec 78’ blizzard definitely had uppers that were very marginal, touching 0c. These charts are phenomenal. A trend I would love to see be continued over the week. 

[Mapantz]

Here's the UKV for Thursday. Snow mainly for high ground.

  

[Griff]

Ecm looks ok