Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[northwestsnow]

Thats a booooooooom.

Edited January 12, 2021 by northwestsnow

[markw2680]

7 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

I know! My location has gone from having rain as I am too far west to missing the snow as I am too far east!

At such short range the models are all over the place, but the fax is rarely wrong having the best data and human input.

Andy

As quite often the case with these type of fronts with building pressure to the east, it gets pushed further and further west as time gets closer, I’d say it will go further west still. Sure snow will only be a problem over hills etc as it’s just not cold enough imo

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a booooooooom.

Maybe a bit to soon for a ‘Boom” let’s get the UKMO on board 1st

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Penicuikblizzard said:

Maybe a bit to soon for a ‘Boom” let’s get the UKMO on board 1st

The mean itself is a huge upgrade.

ukmo can go whistle

[Tim Bland]

Best thing about the ECM is that the GH starts at day 7....we are finally counting it down...

[bluearmy]

at day the 10 on the eps mean uppers

the area of uncertainty- further north than west like to see tbh .... need that to correct south over the next few runs 
 

As

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just seen GFS 00Z! one of best I think I have seen, but all deep FI, as FI is around +72, this chart could be a BOOM! it's a childhood 90's classic! snowfest, rain S of M4!

[Troubleatmill]

Ecm op in cluster one which trends for a more west based neg NAO it appears, not want we want to see ideally. Still lots of members in clusters two or three  which would hopefully bring a more direct cold spell  

[Drifter]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The mean itself is a huge upgrade.

ukmo can go whistle

There’s never been a cold spell that hasn’t had the UKMO on board unfortunately.  Plus this appears to be getting watered down like the pre Xmas spell especially for the south. 
Roll on spring

[IDO]

The ecm, gfs and gem means:

 

I would be relatively confident that we have crossed that event horizon and now have the envelope for the d10 period; heights building to our NW and a Scandi trough. The gefs at d11 showing various clusters (also London 850s):

 

A few days needed to pinpoint finer details as to the extent of the trough and the cold flow. A neg NAO and the ebb and flow of Iberian heights remains potential spoilers in this pattern but the further north you are (and/or elevation) this should be a great setup?

[daz_4]

Don't like ECM. It's very reluctant to drop the cold air south though it probably fits with the anomalies for the end of the January that Ventrice posted on twitter yesterday.

GFS Control is my run of the morning.

[pureasthedriven]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

There’s never been a cold spell that hasn’t had the UKMO on board unfortunately.  Plus this appears to be getting watered down like the pre Xmas spell especially for the south. 
Roll on spring

This is increasingly looking like a very favourable set up for the midlands north (if one can generalise like that). Battleground events look probable and the line for those battles are almost never drawn in the ‘south’ (for arguments sake, let’s say the M4 Boundary but probably a touch further than that. Just had a quick look at Exeter’s overnighter and despite their understandable fence-sitting, they’re not really having it, especially the further south you go. And looking at the suites this morning, not hard to see why. 

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

This is increasingly looking like a very favourable set up for the midlands north (if one can generalise like that). Battleground events look probable and the line for those battles are almost never drawn in the ‘south’ (for arguments sake, let’s say the M4 Boundary but probably a touch further than that. Just had a quick look at Exeter’s overnighter and despite their understandable fence-sitting, they’re not really having it, especially the further south you go. And looking at the suites this morning, not hard to see why. 

Agreed it is quite clear they aren't sure just how far the really cold air will dig ,  the fact that they are mentioning Southerly tracking LP's is always a good sign and as we know can produce some cracking snow events ..............................for some

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, lets hope that secondary wave moves through and on time unhindered to release that mass of cold Arctic Air. What can go wrong ? Would like to see the UKMO run at 144t having the potential trigger low a bit further east. However, even before we get there , oh what a messy picture over the coming days into the weekend. Stalling troughs could produce a lot of rain and even snowfall. I think its down  to a matter of now forecasting with short term models and an expert eye coming to the fore as so to speak.

 C

It never seems to be plain sailing getting cold into the UK does it?

The hang back west of the jet returning south after looping round the upper level high over Greenland and the turn westerly of the jet too far north over the UK on 00z EC is highlighting the risk of delaying the cold setting in and certainly not allowing the deep cold to get down across the UK, with low pressure too far west along with low pressure trying to phase from the SW too, as illustrated on the EC jet stream chart for Wednesday next week.

00z GEM offers the cleanest route to deep cold with the jet turning westerly further south after coming down from Greenland.

Lots of complications to be ironed out in getting the cold in from the north next week, with lows dropping down from the NW with the northern arm of the jet buckling upstream and looping around Greenland, then lows moving east across the Atlantic on weaker southern arm of jet trying to phase with these lows dropping down.

If only getting deep cold to the UK could be easy!

Lots of swings in model output to come as they try to resolve the jet configuration and where the lows are placed.

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Nick F

[winterof79]

I'll be using these over ECM 

[mushymanrob]

9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Guys,i know we are commenting on the models(which is fine)but we are looking too far ahead when even this week isn't nailed on yet!

the overall trends still look the same and the variation of the same theme looks to continue with Greenland heights and trough coming down from the N/NE in the extended

i am happy at the moment overall with today's proceedings.

latest from the cpc...,what more can you ask from those anomalies?

They show the difference betweenb a Greenland Ridge and a Greenland high.... the 8-14 day chart certainly now adds weight to the argument for sustained cold.

[Cymro]

16 minutes ago, Drifter said:

There’s never been a cold spell that hasn’t had the UKMO on board unfortunately.  Plus this appears to be getting watered down like the pre Xmas spell especially for the south. 
Roll on spring

Is this strictly true? I have seen the UKMO flip within T48 our climate is so finely balanced here in the UK small changes make for massive differences in surface conditions. 

[nick sussex]

Still a lot of uncertainty just 3 days out .

The ECM op is the mildest solution for the shortwave moving se . Never mind later on where lots of options are on the table and until those phasing issues are overcome then I’d urge coldies to not think this is a done deal .

[mushymanrob]

anyone else having trouble viewing wetterzentrale?

[chionomaniac]

Some pretty chilly runs this morning. Lets reel them in!

(3rd ECM on the trot showing some form of Greenland block too)

That last third of January signal has been consistent.

[NewEra21]

19 minutes ago, Drifter said:

There’s never been a cold spell that hasn’t had the UKMO on board unfortunately.  Plus this appears to be getting watered down like the pre Xmas spell especially for the south. 
Roll on spring

Wasn't the UKMO pretty poor over the Christmas/New Year period. The only model to come out with any credibility over that period was the GFS imo. The UKMO and ECM haven't been great of late.

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest temperature plume De Bilt. And wind direction. We see a cluster of easterly winds at the final days of the plume.

[mulzy]

34 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Best thing about the ECM is that the GH starts at day 7....we are finally counting it down...

Wish it (GH) was a little further east - the trough would then be further east and the risk from the higher heights to the south would be reduced.

Great potential though but still a distance away from boom charts (they need to happen at day 4 or less).

FWIW, the ext EPS do look better than previous two runs.

[Beanz]

44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a booooooooom.

I cannot see how anything can be ‘boom’ at that far out.  

Edited January 12, 2021 by Beanz

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

The best trending mean that coldies have had for many days.

Greenland High very likely from about 19th. Op very close to the mean throughout.