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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The answer is a lot more. 

You follow a the green lines to get an idea of wind direction, so these show North Westerlies.

No they don't - they show West North Westerlies, so the answer is you cannot hope for any more - if you live in highland Scotland!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

GFS // T282:

6E3FE08B-6CE2-4732-9FE5-485D535127F3.thumb.png.57a9088c9acb2d63aa626919c8caa070.png281FE9FD-1704-4009-8A1D-36730645C4CA.thumb.png.67dd9916d8a5bc1d0f902bec6b4d97e1.png

And look at what is practically on the doorstep.  WHITES in the new upstream.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, ALL ABOARD said:

If this is putting lipstick on a pig.. 

I want to also put a wig, a nice dress and take it out for dinner before putting a ring on it... 

Stunning. 

gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.fa5b35eaf5bd6d0280cab94cae57c79a.png

I can't believe I'm so greedy that I want perfection instead of this less 'perfect' route, I should be delighted. (Truth be told I'd be ecstatic vs average). 

And regarding the lipstick comment, most of us have probably done a lot worse with beer goggles on, and are probably not Brad Pitt ourselves... 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The answer is a lot more. 

You follow a the green lines to get an idea of wind direction, so these show North Westerlies.

Yes i know that MS,but as i stated in my previous post the anomalies show +ve heights to our NW with -ve heights to our NE/E/SE.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.c1dd7eb5c1b0e66348eba64b42764ca0.png

 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
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Posted

GFS Para at 234 has more than a passing resemblance to the ECM for the same time

image.thumb.png.39e3e6a85d712d666d30f7b977d5fba8.pngimage.thumb.png.d11414b8108194bf6e3fb09ddc9783d8.png  

Look how the PV has completely shifted away from North America.  Absolutely amazing charts.

The Para also has a lovely snowstorm for the south on the UK at 258 courtesy of a low moving through the channel (just for fun of course)

image.thumb.png.56d3e4ac5204cab19b033f699df83277.pngimage.thumb.png.7a61d6343d8429f9a6fdc458b0ebe29a.png  

Finally, the GEFS mean at 192 is excellent.  

image.thumb.png.7fbb6205adfde34f58b87a26ebc1111c.png

This is where we are as of today, but still plenty of hurdles to overcome but I'm enjoying the ride as I'd hope most of the posters in here are?!  If you can't enjoy this, I think you need another hobby.

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GSP Enthusiast

GSP

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
Posted

So many changes still run to run in the mid term.

We went to bed on a muted note after a not so good GFS18z last night, only to be welcomed this morning by special looking charts.

Feels a bit deja vu this evening.

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ScottSnow Aficionado

ScottSnow

Posted
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
Posted (edited)

18z GFS not looking very good however this is coming up to my 18th year on here and very rarely to we approach a cold spell without a few bad runs.

Hopefully we are back where we should be in the morning. If we are still seeing the same by this time tomorrow then it may be time for concern.

Edited by Snow White
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Iberian heights dominant on the control as well

E90422E5-57D1-4615-B736-8AA69CCED738.png

Just ask yourself. When did the pub run ever get one over on the ecm? 

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london-snow Aficionado

london-snow

Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Just going to leave this here

1AF3B494-67F4-45D6-8AEB-382947D8501F.gif

A person with near 10 thousand posts should know better..

All about trends my friends and nothing is nailed on yet. 
 

except from the miserable heavy rain currently having after experiencing a cold and cloudy drab past week.

Edited by london-snow
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
34 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

It might get there eventually but as we’ve learned many times, when things  are pushed back it’s normally a bad sign.

Even with the GH building in this chart it’s going to take a while for any cold to flood into the U.K. with the heights over Europe

 

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The good news is it appears the control/para/op could be out of kilter with the ensembles, looking at the mean compared to the 12z

418AAF10-F1DC-47A1-B494-7721C507985A.png

9C9E1F9D-1F80-4BDC-B17D-2DE6EEB87FB5.png

I was going to enquire about the mean and ensembles but you've already got there  and addressed the first point

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted
13 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

If this is putting lipstick on a pig.. 

I want to also put a wig, a nice dress and take it out for dinner before putting a ring on it... 

Stunning. 

gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.fa5b35eaf5bd6d0280cab94cae57c79a.png

I've just dropped my knife under the table and leant down to retrieve it and my god what a view..... 

969418350_gfsnh-0-330(1).thumb.png.5f8b7f3a804afc23b1d3162274938515.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

The gefs mean is looking a lot better than the 12z so far with a closed HP cell over Greenland.

gensnh-31-1-216.thumb.png.558370eadce78c2a2545b3b641006a88.png

same roller coaster rides and turmoil tomorrow,this isn't a done deal yet...but the conscious is there

goodnight everyone. 

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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

Chaps this period is going to be v tricky for the ops to follow even more so for the ensembles. It is all about weather that low separates. We all know that the gfs can be pretty poor at modelling split energy so just keep toys in Parma until all models can agree on how the energy spits. I’m sure @nick sussex will back me up about the comments of gfs being poor about splitting energy.  

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
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Posted
6 minutes ago, london-snow said:

A person with near 10 thousand posts should know better..

9500 of them were snow charts and I can reassure you that at least 3 came off

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

Oh I see! GFS (P) is now the best model...since the 0z this morning GFS it appears to me that each consecutive op run doesn't look as good, 18z makes little of the GHP.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Awesome mean at T228, closed off on the mean is big time.  As @Allseasons-si notes above:

E0122FA5-0799-4693-9578-72B2E3B03C6B.thumb.png.41a401a76b310712e620aff3fcd638b6.png

Some work to do on the uppers but they will follow, they can’t not do with this set up.

D4FC42EB-C5A5-43C5-A375-D926416C4293.thumb.png.96e2a12c4be207fd5c451cc51eb0fe58.png

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted (edited)

GFS para looks on the money,the soon to be discarded GFS having a fit probably because its gonna be binned shortly

EC maintains a very weak Vortex well into February. Also a strong signal for -NAO going forward,and favouring cold for the UK.. Latest from Marco P..

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-0-222.png

gfs-0-258.png

ErfKYe8XEAEMKHU.png

ErfKYGfXIAAejMq.jpeg

ErfKYyEXAAIu8O8.jpeg

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

GFS para looks on the money,the soon to be discarded GFS having a fit probably because its gonna be binned shortly

EC maintains a very weak Vortex well into February. Also a strong signal for -NAO going forward,and favouring cold for the UK.. Latest from Marco P..

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-0-222.png

gfs-0-258.png

ErfKYe8XEAEMKHU.png

ErfKYGfXIAAejMq.jpeg

ErfKYyEXAAIu8O8.jpeg

I believe the old GFS is more accurate than the para though. Also, the GFS did quite well during the last cold spell.So we dismiss the GFS at our peril.

Edited by Bricriu
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

I believe the old GFS is more accurate than the para though. So we dismiss the GFS at our peril. Also, the GFS did quite well during the last cold spell.

You believe wrong. It’s verifying a lot worse than GFs(p) and behind the GEM

PS ECM is the top model according to the stats......

E5CAB449-CEBB-42C2-A612-97FB99E9EC95.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

You believe wrong. It’s verifying a lot worse than GFs(p) and behind the GEM

Oh ok. I am happy to be wrong about this!

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.gif.c57cb3aa57bfba112a86b05126d25b10.gif
 

Rainfall totals up to Friday morning, most of this falls during Wednesday and Thursday (especially the areas with the highest amounts). You can see the major risk for parts of Yorkshire and NE England in particular as you could easily see several inches of snow settling with elevation. Flooding may also be an issue underneath that stalling frontal system. Frankly for eastern areas it would be good to see snow because a combination of persistent moderate to heavy rain, a stiff south easterly wind and temperatures of just 2/3c is going to feel pretty horrid.

Despite high pressure building in, it looks like it will remain cold at the surface for the end of the week. Further frontal snow events are possible before we potentially see a larger pattern change potentially highlighted for week 2, so it is further keeping an eye on the shorter range as well as seeing whether that Greenland high verifies.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I believe the old GFS is more accurate than the para though. So we dismiss the GFS at our peril. Also, the GFS did quite well during the last cold spell.

Hey don’t rule out the CMA

ps , Navgem wasn’t that great  

1482742D-472B-4FCC-AFD0-0AB5402FEB88.png

C1D8CB83-7DF5-4D27-9679-09B9D1450E18.png

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