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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

The one very promising thing is no matter how poor or messy the output seems to look, everything eventually seems to lead to cold. We're not exactly seeing mild when things aren't looking great, and that is a great sign in itself!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFSP victory from an almost certain defeat... 

gfsnh-0-276.png

Yes a it of a Scooby Doos dinner Greenland...see what i did there?

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

A few tweaks to this (Greenie high topling  to scandi) and we could get an easterly..look at what is lurking to our east  

99D24BD2-3406-4BEC-BDF3-0F3436F48EE8.png

0A32DB5B-4D24-49A9-8F74-00672AA17C76.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
1 minute ago, Snowmut said:

Winter Fayre on the Broads!

image.thumb.png.5a7ed4d6ef57a9c69ca84c079faff113.png 

In terms of deep cold, probably the best chart of the night!

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFSP victory from an almost certain defeat... 

gfsnh-0-276.png

Give me GFSp instead of EC tonight! Far better, with heights over Iceland instead of them sailing out Into the West.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

ecm last to join the party again,only today decided to join it,gfs and other models beating it again ,it had the Azores high yesterday towards the end,poor performance again.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
18 minutes ago, CSC said:

I would like to ask those hypothetically, what would a T196+ ECM12z scenario entail? You think dare I say it, historical snow somewhere in U.K.? 

Cold but not massively so. Temps at 850 level around -6c which is similar to what has just gone before. Whilst a long maritime track I suspect slightly better dew points as the origin of the airmass is from a long way north. In the north your looking at anything falling being snow to low levels, in the south 'wintry showers'. The kicker though is that in many places it would probably be dry.

In the days following the cold intensifies slightly away from the far south but I would not expect any historical snow events. In essence its a bog standard winter cold snap despite it looking dramatic but maybe a little more punchy than the last one. Beyond 240 hours it could go colder still but the jury is out on that and my own sense is that we are gradually trending away from any full on 'beast'.

All the above based on gut feel from the 500 & 850 Metiociel charts so others might have more detail.

Edit: To be clear, I'm not saying 'no snow'!!

Edited by Jason M
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1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Cold but not massively so. Temps at 850 level around -6c which is similar to what has just gone before. Whilst a long maritime track I suspect slightly better dew points as the origin of the airmass is from a long way north. In the north your looking at anything falling being snow to low levels, in the south 'wintry showers'. The kicker though is that in many places it would probably be dry.

In the days following the cold intensifies slightly away from the far south but I would not expect any historical snow events. In essence its a bog standard winter cold snap despite it looking dramatic but maybe a little more punchy than the last one. Beyond 240 hours it could go colder still but the jury is out on that and my own sense is that we are gradually trending away from any full on 'beast'.

All the above based on gut feel from the 500 & 850 Metiociel charts so others might have more detail.

I will hold you to the no significant snow/cold idea if it happens

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Just now, CSC said:

I will hold you to the no significant snow/cold idea if it happens

Didn't say no significant snow I said no to 'historical' snow. That's possible but for most, especially in the highly populated areas it won't be anything that people talk about for years to come!

Happy to be judged by my comments as I have no ego with this stuff. If I'm wrong so be it and in truth I'll be as happy as everyone else. Besides, I thought I called the last spell well so if I get one right and one wrong I've done okay 

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Just now, Jason M said:

Didn't say no significant snow I said no to 'historical' snow. That's possible but for most, especially in the highly populated areas it won't be anything that people talk about for years to come!

Happy to be judged by my comments as I have no ego with this stuff. If I'm wrong so be it and in truth I'll be as happy as everyone else. Besides, I thought I called the last spell well so if I get one right and one wrong I've done okay 

I was only joking great analysis as always!

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

A lot of excitement tonight regarding ECM charts but GFS following along with this second

cold blast for the U.K. all be it in that period of Will it or won’t it happen.But because Of SSW

chances must be greater.Let’s hope for the white stuff this time that the south so badly deserves.

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

If I had the choice I would choose Gfsp over ECM but that is partly from an imby perspective but also I think the high would move slowly from Griceland to Greenland over time and we could also tap into the colder uppers from the North east which look to be heading towards uk .(apologies if I have read this wrong,just my interpretation of the maps).

 

34E16E3E-6150-4669-A196-BA5F534545D1.thumb.png.6d8f0f8d217e41378f419efab898e10e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

To give some perspective on how uncertain things are, there are 6 clusters at day 5

Where does the op sit please

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
4 minutes ago, CSC said:

I was only joking great analysis as always!

No worries. Worth just adding that it was an interpretation of that run as you requested. It may and probably will change between now and then. Actually my gut feel is that it won't be far off though.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey, you’d take this at T240 for a mean chart!!!

89F93CF6-2203-45E0-8152-2863B5430CB4.thumb.png.dfe29320d423e880c0575ae2f1589564.png

Bank

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