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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
Just now, warrenb said:

Yep looks good at 216, remember this is at 216, and is nothing like the previous run.

?? Not Exactly far off is it? It’s actually very similar to this mornings run sypnotically speaking.

353ECA39-2450-401B-AA7E-F0F7252A51B2.png

27E6D461-13D8-4C8B-AB3B-804572424B1D.png

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, warrenb said:

Yep looks good at 216, remember this is at 216, and is nothing like the previous run.

Yes but tomorrows 192 won't be like this evenings 216 , that really is nothing new , as long as the trend stays the same 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Just a reminder of the 00z ECM ..it’s not far off what we are seeing now , it’s just a Slight improvement !

97E9B95D-7F59-4719-A294-86EE6723D232.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Much better uppers as well.. on the 240 previous there were still greens over the channel. Even allowing for the 12hour gap.. it’s a vast improvement...

-7 uppers over the south east.. North Sea a degree cooler than start of year and dryer air.. should be ok?
 

image.thumb.png.5865e512cf236e0ce47d64fb45e0d412.png

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Popular Post
Posted

ECM 12z at t240. No words required, what an absolute beauty.

E9B276D4-A78F-4252-A2B2-DDAFB993248E.thumb.png.5ce503eceae52b22918709bb88bf4df7.png739D6E54-F863-4A7D-B102-D4C92D1B778A.thumb.png.9285821a8cbd6b1ebfc0b101fb8091b0.png

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Just a reminder of the 00z ECM ..it’s not far off what we are seeing now , it’s just a Slight improvement !

97E9B95D-7F59-4719-A294-86EE6723D232.png

Just a slight improvement

WOW  

4E3795EA-048B-4B60-8301-F3F13141A3B1.thumb.png.793363f008bdde1f9c1de7b0e93db629.png

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NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted

Like others have said, that's two good ECM runs in a row now. Now we just need to see consistency for a few days.... But I feel like that's asking for too much. But hey one model has to eventually find the correct outcome!

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

@240 still looks very good!!!

ECM1-240.gif

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

E91AD371-3E54-4797-BCE6-A3BA96260FB5.png
 

where is Steve Murr?  What’s the odds now ??‍♂️

While I love this run and think it has a chance, I still will withdraw judgement until I see two ensemble sets that mainly follow this pattern. The old law with the Greenland Ridge/High (whichever you prefer) on the ECM op applies, which is wait until D5.

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
15 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Where's them Iberian heights....lol

Will be back on the next run no doubt

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I just hope this ECM run is not an outlier!

I do ......................................................a mild one 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted

I suppose it's game on again now until the next bad run? Deary me, this forum.

Great ECM/UKMO 12z runs. Waiting for the EPS to see how much support there is for that solution. 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Greenie high locked in between 216 and 240.. more work required on uppers for the south which actually increased by a degree or two between 216 and 240

image.thumb.png.81bf9af6646d4a5f19624ab13dfb5836.png

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
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Posted

Greenland high and a deep trough encompassing the whole of Europe. That will do nicely, cold or very cold at the surface. No point going into deeper detail as I doubt the set up would be that slack. Let’s get that high and trough nailed first.

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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted
2 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

Need a channel runner or two to satisfy us southerners..

I would have hoped we would be seeing colder 850’s given the set up..

 

ECM seems to always underplay 850 temps in fi but with this set up you would easily knock a couple of degrees off them nearer the time 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I just hope this ECM run is not an outlier!

I do - a warm one!

ECM delivers again, and it seems the critical period for getting cold going forward is around 132. So we SHOULD start to gain a little more confidence in this evolution, if it appears 12 hours closer on the 0z runs.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This one is for you...

BADB4C2D-F6DF-4141-AB2D-1E927B6453E9.jpeg

Barely worth the bother to be fair, 1-2cms from a usually over-optimistic ECM.

A pretty cold 2nd half of the run from the ECM, little sign of it weakening either as the upper high looks fairly rooted to Greenland, just slowly weakening.

Hard to see a quick evolution out of that from cold, probably would eventually shift towards a west based NAO based on what I can see, but that won't be anytime soon.

 

Edited by kold weather
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I suppose it's game on again now until the next bad run? Deary me, this forum.

 

You know what they say, if you cant stand the heat stay out of the kitchen.......,At least it gives us a bit of escapism in these sad times!

 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I suppose it's game on again now until the next bad run? Deary me, this forum.

Great ECM/UKMO 12z runs. Waiting for the EPS to see how much support there is for that solution. 

It’s almost as if most people do this as a hobby and live cold and snow isn’t it ??‍♂️
The only poor run today is this afternoons old GFS , which I will bet is a mild outlier if it ever finishes. 00z GFs and ECM and 06z runs were good. And all bar the 12z gfs are great today ??‍♂️ I won’t say the ‘nail ‘ word or I’ll get lynched but we have stapled it and hopefully we can screw it down tomorrow!

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