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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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After the recent SSW there are signs that the models might be homing in on the outcome with a spell of cold and snowy weather possible for the UK. So a good time for a new thread to continue discussions.

Please only discuss the model output in this thread, and as ever please also keep it friendly and respectful of others views.

With it likely to get very busy in here, can we please not use the thread for congratulations or thanks type posts - instead could we use private messaging or the 'like' or 'thanks' button. Thanks. 👍

Some alternate threads if you don't want to discuss the models:

Winter chat, banter, moans and ramps
Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch
Regional Chat

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Global Jetstream
Stratosphere

Edited by Blessed Weather
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Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

Posted Images

image.thumb.png.96e7fd817cd175aedca0b18cfc1854f6.png image.thumb.png.31854583138fccc033aa2d2a617ef55b.png image.thumb.png.f2249987f1f3a5cf6c3342ae831a5041.png 
 

Good FAX chart for the north, bad one for the south with constant rain in the south for days on end whilst a caking in the north.

Edited by Jamie M
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Agree with all the posts above.

Never gonna be fully nailed on with events like this at this sort of time range especially with so much scatter at such short range.

image.thumb.png.164a8c6b18543628545d974620e1cca8.pngimage.thumb.png.b9edb2d15c0c3e9c2e893b9a51cc973d.png 

EC46 coming out today so will have to see what that holds.

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Very interesting charts this morning at 144 hrs UKMO and GFS holding the high pressure 

to our west while ECM and GEM going for the high to sink south and low pressure moving 

in from the north.Will of course make a big a big difference to what happens in the future 

Synoptics,one to watch very carefully.

 

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49 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Can't help but chuckle at those suggesting this is "nailed on" now, after the complete despair in here last night when just about every model collapsed the high. The GFS & ECM were fairly big outliers, indeed the EC Det was in a minority cluster later on in the run.

ens_image.thumb.png.ed3919a5b79a9f41129d84791d92b901.png

How anyone can see an ensemble chart with a spread that large and say the pattern is "nailed on" boggles the mind. Will it be turning colder again? Yes. I think we can be certain of that, will it be bitterly cold & snowy? Possibly, but that remains a lower probability at the moment. 

Certainly some beautiful synoptics & snow charts out in the extended this morning, but until we start seeing more support for it, it's difficult to say exactly where we're heading.

It's not nailed on at all. But that ensemble graph shows excellent agreement for it to turn colder, so not "low probability" in the slightest. The scatter starts immediately after the cold arrives, so yes, it could turn milder after one day.

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There’s been a lot of booms this morning.  My advice is to wait for the main models to agree 4 / 5 days out, then confidence can be high, especially if UKMO is on board.  You can then boom away! ☺️

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7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Yes - spot on mate.

Could be an absolute pasting for the North/North East at times! 

Few UKV snapshots below.

Please excuse the sheer number of charts posted...trying to squeeze in lots of wintry potential for many parts of the UK! 😀

Wednesday 21:00

CF79A448-D9A1-4929-A3E9-BBFAD84170B0.thumb.png.989673b67a25955e410664aab4be2101.png
 

Thursday 06:00

61EE37AD-E155-4E6C-8B26-4079F00DDED8.thumb.png.d120d977bb35d1607cf5991e4102b216.png

 

09:00

B51008B5-9413-4090-AC2A-9E96E9EE5F4E.thumb.png.b11c92a7edb2da2c6db6de8685d0b0a9.png
 

12:00

76FBC619-E41E-4D98-9059-94DE7EEE0147.thumb.png.fa7891c2a49f75bffb76ef299d90c436.png
 

15:00

DF5A50E4-BA8C-4DCE-B17C-F7B50F4EF02E.thumb.png.22d482701f4a6759ad4846c343e4c915.png
 

 

Saturday 00:00

35B9DE69-42B8-40B5-A529-AA9C14E69550.thumb.png.022ce8e0821729cf26f7a684453837d5.png
 

03:00

42778648-5B78-4ED9-85D1-9020D31B79E4.thumb.png.193feec7545e2b4c39c3920132f97bf2.png
 

All the above subject to change/timing but great to see the snowfall risk (higher ground especially) once again within the semi-reliable timeframe. 

Charts/models looking great in the mid/long term - lots to be excited about!

Nailed on though? Nah...let’s get these big proper snowy boom charts into a reliable timeframe before all that chat. 

All the best to you all! 

Looks a good high ground event 150m+ will do well ❄️

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Lol I have seen cold spells disappear within t+96 range so until a cold spell get down to at least +96 then be very careful of calling it nailed-on,especially at the timeframe being shown,and even the so called semi reliable timeframe isnt nailed on in the final outcome and gfs was showing mild crud at the same timeframe yesterday!

Nice to look at these cold charts,but they havent verified yet, and  to be honest ECM wasnt that great anyway!,and its always ahead of gfs in verification stats even if its supposed to be not as good as gfs in the greenland region🤣

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Just now, XtremeUKWeather said:

image.thumb.png.d11936d455ec4e8cc567ee8f31fbef40.pngimage.thumb.png.0c8af23f2dcb4a49f53e6758b1f0f84f.pngLow south of Greeland just gone on 6z

Will that mean nothing to pump up the Greenland height in this run?

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