Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

[Garthvader]

When is the 3rd ssw expected to peak guys?

[Tim Bland]

I’m happy that the ECM is still showing some snow in the next 7 days. We have a chance Thurs and again next weekend. After that is firmly FI and the models don’t have a clue!

Edited January 10, 2021 by Tim Bland

[sheikhy]

Right thats a better ecm tonight!!think its playin catch up!!!and i most certainly not looking beyond 96 hours cos there could be further changes!!!

[SMU]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM to me isn't terrible? Mid Atlantic high setting up in a position favourable for continued bouts of amplification.

No > it is terrible.

Flat as a witches...

Edited January 10, 2021 by Osbourne One-Nil
Family forum!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

You can’t polish a turn the ECM is rubbish . Sorry to be the grinch but it is . 

it is, but better than 00Z, surely trended towards GFS 12Z

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Johnp said:

Yes, despite what I said, I expect day 10 to be full of promise (is it Groundhog day yet?). 

Yer spot on , I’m usually very positive in chasing cold on here but in never gets near . On the face of it it’s not a terrible run but surely we are wanting more than this 

[Tim Bland]

Day 10....  No longer has potential

[pureasthedriven]

20 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Lift off !!!!!!!!!! 

Eh??

[Froze were the Days]

12 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Game set and match?

Talk about a premature post...GHP never secured here.

[nick sussex]

The ECM delivers the worst of all worlds .

It makes less of any easterly and then goes downhill thereafter . If you like slush then it’s a winner if you want crunchy snow and ice days then it’s not up to much ! 

The best that can be said for it is it doesn’t blow up the PV to the north like this mornings run by day ten .

[That ECM]

 

[Vikos]

It’s getting ridiculous in here right now, just over one for some not so favourable run, disregarding the overall patterns we have. Childish behaviour, I’m sorry to say...

[mountain shadow]

ECM ops just don't want to drop the Westerly influence over the Greenland ridge.

Hopefully they've got it wrong as it will further delay the proper cold.

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No > it is terrible.

Flat as a witches TiT

At 240Z

[Djdazzle]

ECM isn’t in the same ball park as GFS, that’s fair enough.

Time will tell, but we aren’t yet close to nailing this.

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No > it is terrible.

Flat as a witches TiT

From a southerners perspective, yes, 

[ICE COLD]

What an horrific attempt by the ECM op . I’m speechless it’s pony

[BalderstoneNick]

Day 10 looks like it might give it another go further on. Sorry did I say that out loud

[mulzy]

ECM is relatively poor but bear in mind there were 6 clusters in this morning’s eps at day 7.  Take anything after day 5 with a shed load of salt.

[MJB]

Shocking ECM if we are honest - roll on GFS 18z 

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 10....  No longer has potential

That does not look like a distressed PV to me

[Stephen W]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Not really - No sub -4c air makes it a pretty poor effort

I have to agree completely. Underwhelming 850’s, much like this current cold spell. Deep cold needed and I’m not getting a confident sense of that yet from current output. Tantalisingly close. As you say, need euros on board and within a reliable timeframe. There seem to be a number of possible spoilers in the mix still.

[Kasim Awan]

ECM isn't brilliant, and it can't be discounted, however 2 things imo

1) Let's see the ensemble

2) GFS is usually the preferred model in terms of Greenland amplification

[Cloud 10]

JMA rides into town.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM delivers the worst of all worlds .

It makes less of any easterly and then goes downhill thereafter . If you like slush then it’s a winner if you want crunchy snow and ice days then it’s not up to much ! 

The best that can be said for it is it doesn’t blow up the PV to the north like this mornings run by day ten .

I don't know your elevation etc, but this not good? snow or rain?