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Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats 120

 

Fat fingers 

78964A5F-E09C-4832-B9AE-080FFDAAF8CB.png

5B4451CA-496D-40F9-8ACA-67E4BE5428F6.png

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

It’s certainly a step forward from yesterday from the ECM, but the continued modelling of much stronger heights cored to our south is a continued concern for me, it’s an area the ECM normally excels in.

 

FADBBBA5-959C-4C71-AD28-622DE14DAA13.png
 

edit: 192  

E2B5D296-8337-4629-86DD-4E6B029D7E4C.png

Edited by Weathizard
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

Don’t care what happens from here, superb morning output.

448223BA-9CCA-4ED8-96D3-CE2D9E266864.png

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

Much improved on yesterdays 12z run thankfully, I just hope the Iberian heights get flattened in the next frame or 2, lovely heights to the south of Greenland

ECM1-192.gif

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PiscesStar Rising Star

PiscesStar

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted
Just now, That ECM said:

Don’t care what happens from here, superb morning output.

448223BA-9CCA-4ED8-96D3-CE2D9E266864.png

Gets you like that doesn't it. Yes, downwelling underway by tonight's runs I think we will  see some outstanding output by the models 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Much improved on yesterdays 12z run thankfully, I just hope the Iberian heights get flattened in the next frame or 2, lovely heights to the south of Greenland

ECM1-192.gif

Steve will like that.

552dm into Greenland across the board.

Looking good now.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Popular Post
Posted

3F32A2ED-FC5C-46C7-8B14-B19FBDB2D452.thumb.png.31425709d6cee72d6ce3bcc0af045498.png

All roads! 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Well thats the ECM that 100% would NOT move to the GFS.

GFS is king in this pattern

FANTASTIC

Morning output!!

Well, seems it's been called mate! Thanks to your model expertise though!

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

We both called it mate! Thanks to your model expertise though!

Yes mate!

Lets see how the rest of the day goes first though! But yes we called it in private!

What a week of model watching to come!

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icykev Aficionado

icykev

Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
Posted
20 minutes ago, SteveB said:

But it was predicted and is happening! We could have stayed cold,just like we do when we stay mild when a cold spell is predicted! 

Was just writing something very similar to RD, too much to say atm so will leave it for now. All weather is predicted/forecast bar the odd hicup. SI nailed the early winter forum forecasting atm, some were rather blunt last night, sour. Thanks. Keep it up Scott, so helpful, especially to newer members! Anyway all looking rosey, still counting down, off to work

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

We both called it mate! Thanks to your model expertise though!

Bit early for Willy waving competitions again. Not sure anyone should be doing that in these 850’s

 

seriously tho, stop the point scoring please.

50DE9940-B77D-4808-BE5D-CBAF7C27B57F.png

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

The ECM has been shambolic at times since its 'upgrade' a couple of years back.

The OP maybe. But it's still the daddy across its ensembles. 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yes mate!

Lets see how the rest of the day goes first though! But yes we called it in private!

What a week of model watching to come!

Almost nailed on now mate - all major NWP now swinging in that direction is a definite sign - plus the background factors etc, would be very unlucky if this were to retreat. 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The OP maybe. But it's still the daddy across its ensembles. 

Maybe they should pick an ensemble member to be the op. Might be an outlier less often!

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