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Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looking at the day 10 mean it’s definitely at outlier - or is it the trendsetter. 
If the ECM follows the GFS Op, I’d say we should take note.

That GFS Op run was exceptional, if only a few days out you’d be talking Historic , and COBRA would be meeting!! 

4FE0DC73-688B-41C3-B5A2-7BF345E35288.png

E87DCBD4-43BA-4CD7-AA56-0E36B3385121.png

Yes although the circle of lower heights on that mean could encompass the surrounding low pressures of a cut off high

Intereates in the ensembles AFTER the 20th tbh this is where the mega cold lands

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

The mean gets colder after day 10 ..

image.thumb.png.e364e7402ed1cea10f94aa5d3773af5c.png

THIS is what i wanted to see very good mean chart this one!

Edited by Scott Ingham
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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
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Posted (edited)

Anyone see the clues for the next arctic High from the 2nd bout of warming in the strat?

Its on both gfs runs.

I would suggest excellent placement as it will push the cold out of scandi ever further south over us and give us those fi insane upper temps!

 

20210111_052849.jpg

20210111_052744.jpg

Talk about locking in the vortex over north west europe!!!

Edited by Scott Ingham
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icykev Aficionado

icykev

Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
Posted
5 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Remarkable!

There is one at +5 and another at -12 at around day 6!

 

Id say it certainly is! Looks like its about to get serious in my opinion. Remarkable looks the word, another trend! Cant wait for the ECM now. Surely will come on board to a degree

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, icykev said:

Id say it certainly is! Looks like its about to get serious in my opinion. Remarkable looks the word, another trend! Cant wait for the ECM now. Surely will come on board to a degree

Haha...

If only it was so simple...

But yes, we do need a good EC this morning..

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jamboperth11 said:

When is ECM out? I'm new to all this really, Always remember 2010 up here in Perth, Wouldn't mind the foot of snow we got then to happen again.. 

Should start rolling out about now. Your location will do well if some of this mornings predictions come anywhere near verifying

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

What I find amazing and also annoying is that the warm up we are in and will be continue in for the next few days, was picked up by the models 7-10 days ago. And once it was picked up, it was never in doubt that it would happen. Now fast forward 7-10 days from now, will the next cold spell reliably happen?

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
Just now, SteveB said:

What I find amazing and also annoying is that the warm up we are in and will be continue in for the next few days, was picked up by the models 7-10 days ago. And once it was picked up, it was never in doubt that it would happen. Now fast forward 7-10 days from now, will the next cold spell reliably happen?

Not sure, yes it was in the models but it was shown to be much longer than will actually end up being the case.

The milder spell has consistently downgraded.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
6 minutes ago, Jamboperth11 said:

When is ECM out? I'm new to all this really, Always remember 2010 up here in Perth, Wouldn't mind the foot of snow we got then to happen again.. 

it’s out to T96. Gfs is stunning but for me T144 Ukmo is great to see cause you can see from there it could follow gfs nhp pattern.

323476E7-F0DB-430C-9BB0-1A0F388FFBCA.png

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted
1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Not sure, yes it was in the models but it was shown to be much longer than will actually end up being the case.

The milder spell has consistently downgraded.

But it was predicted and is happening! We could have stayed cold,just like we do when we stay mild when a cold spell is predicted! 

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, SteveB said:

What I find amazing and also annoying is that the warm up we are in and will be continue in for the next few days, was picked up by the models 7-10 days ago. And once it was picked up, it was never in doubt that it would happen. Now fast forward 7-10 days from now, will the next cold spell reliably happen?

To be fair, the modelling was very consistent around the Christmas and New Year period - yes it did over-egg the cold period from 27Dec to now a bit, but the reality was that a lot of forum members expectations were beyond what was being modelled. Therefore the warm up was just a continuation of consistent modelling. However the SSW has chucked a bunch of foxes into the hen house and the resultant carnage is consistent with several previous events of this nature. 

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Penicuikblizzard Experienced

Penicuikblizzard

Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Unbelievably cold if this came off, possibly historic. Let’s see how cold this gets but at day 12 we have -12c uppers clearing the West coast 

13D5EC2E-CDD3-4DD8-A6DB-AC7E05AC9A6E.png

253833B3-1A1A-4DF0-BE8D-83300911E3FF.png

That’s the perfect chart with a strong Greenland high and biter NE winds over the UK ❄️

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, SteveB said:

But it was predicted and is happening! We could have stayed cold,just like we do when we stay mild when a cold spell is predicted! 

It’s hardly going to become mild like it did in December though is it ?

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T120 all 3 and t144 from last nights ecm. Look at the us and look at how it is now modelling the low. we will see but encouraging I would say.

4D1C951F-3EFE-4B12-9392-D0B382668C02.png

8A5C1808-D1E5-48D8-AE43-DAF4C11D0FFC.gif

188ADC47-65D9-4E52-9B5E-49A22888F078.png

276820DB-D621-465E-B199-56495D153A36.png

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LoisE Rookie

LoisE

Posted
  • Location: Allesley
  • Location: Allesley
Posted
4 hours ago, O'Maille80 said:

Same model. He is just referring to fact that the amplification up to Greenland looks better in the  18z gefs run than it did in the 12z run.(hence upgrade). 

Thanks! So better = clearer / easier to interpret / more reliable?  Shouldn't the standard of model be equivalent on each of the runs..  I find this all a bit baffling  

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Owww I'm going to bow to you here Kasim...

I'm not convinced ...

Better view. Looking good.

4B7D4A3E-828F-4C91-9800-EE5AC537E6F2.png

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