Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

[Allseasons-Si]

At 192 and it looks like the parra run from this mornings 06z.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[ICE COLD]

This might go the way of the para 6z from this morning . Let’s hope so

T192 

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

can i get excited yet

Permission granted

[Man With Beard]

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare your "BOOM" voice 

 

 

[ICE COLD]

Proper Greenland high love it  

[Notty]

Just now, Man Without Beard said:

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare your "BOOM" voice 

 

 

Not until the GFS(P) says YESSSSSS

[Tim Bland]

GFSp Has a small low south of Greenland which will complicate things...hioefully justa. Short delay with the Greenland ridge 06z Vs 12z below

[fromey]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Proper Greenland high love it  

I give this my 

[Notty]

Where did that LP come from?

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare your "BOOM" voice 

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Notty said:

Where did that LP come from?

It's the one we need to cut off. Hopefully just a small delay like Tim says

[MJB]

n

5 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare your "BOOM" voice 

 

 

Not so sure on this run 

[Notty]

I take it back. Not very consistent GFS(P) at T+180

06z - 

 

12z - 

[Battleground Snow]

Gem is good at 144 for what it's worth.

If ECM is good later too, hopefully we can disregard the para at 144.

 

[ICE COLD]

If I was being picky could do with the block slightly further SE so we get the full on cold uppers there being wasted at sea

[nick sussex]

I expect the para to now be dumped and sent to the naughty corner !

In the model world you’re only as good as your last cold run! 

Even allowing for differences between the runs the latest GFS at day ten compared to the 06hrs run are on different planets ! 

 

[ICE COLD]

Lovely run again tho

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 minutes ago, Notty said:

I take it back. Not very consistent GFS(P) at T+180

06z - 

 

12z - 

It could still be right! And knowing our luck it will!!!!!!!

[Ali1977]

I think we can say with a degree of certainty that a block to our North is on the cards day 7 ish, this run has the block slightly to far south and west to give other a BFTE scenario, but it only take a few hundred mile move East or SE  and we are talking severe cold spell. 
The pro’s are hinting/watching this closely , interesting times ahead again. 
We’ve just had a prolonged cold spell , and we have another looking favourable to be inbound in the mid term.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Ali1977

[carinthian]

Evening, certainly an upgrade from GFS latest new in the short term. The chart below for this Thursday shows the British Isles placed in the middle of two very different air flows. That old front may possibly give some snow along the convergence zone being set up. Also some low DP and 850mb lower temps into the SE by Friday. The UKMO  run much warmer out 96t -144t. Which on e is on the ball ?  I think at this stage it will be pointless to look much further than 96t , but have a feeling a rapid switch to cold is getting closer.

C

[MJB]

The LP could be a pot of gold for someone 

[Tim Bland]

You won’t hear this one often...Snow..but only south of the M4!

Edited January 10, 2021 by Tim Bland

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS shows front stalking and turning to Snow on Friday. Not as much as ECM as the front fizzles in situ...

I tell you what that snow can STALK me as long as it wants...in fact it can STALK me through till March.. looks good at 192hrs for sure...come onnnnn

[Battleground Snow]

Para is still going to get there eventually I think... It's a very messy route though

 

[NewEra21]

Always seems to be the case, whichever model initially picks up the cold spell, in this case it was the GFS P. The model then has a few very consistent runs showing the same almost identical pattern, before then having a wobble just as the other models then come on board. Seen it countless times now.

Still overall things are very much moving in the right direction, I wouldn't worry too much about the finer details yet. But the pattern across most models is now looking very promising!