Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

41 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Almost nailed on now mate - all major NWP now swinging in that direction is a definite sign - plus the background factors etc, would be very unlucky if this were to retreat. 

And we could be.  Don’t promise the family yet, when we have it inside t72 then you may.  UKMO at t144 although heading that way doesn’t show nirvana...so it shows how far away it still is

 BFTP

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL!!

Det jumps on board, eps moving the other way??

Clearly this saga might have legs in it...

It has legs because T120 is where it starts? Good morning for sure but nothing done until T72 and met on board and drop “low confidence”

[Battleground Snow]

That cut off low is a tricky customer to model, once it's modelled in the 96 range I think we can start to celebrate, give it another 24 hours.

Got to give credit to the para, yes it's has a few bizzare runs, but haven't they all?

It spotted this general pattern of the Arctic / Greenland link up a long time ago now.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

It’s still way, way out...

 

Remember: nothing is as certain as a stubbed toe

[BalderstoneNick]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This is far from a done deal folks.  There is significant scatter on the GEFS and EPS through the medium range.  Lots of less cold options are still on the table - this morning’s mean EPS though decent is not as cold as previously.

Indeed, just looking the the GEFS postage stamps for 192 and there is no firm favourite outcome yet. Great to see OPS in the main agreeing but way too early still. I'm still very much in the 'hope for the best but expect the worst' mind frame yet

[markw2680]

Great set of charts and runs this morning but BEWARE nothing is nailed even below 72 hours things can quickly go tits up. Remember if it’s cold there’s so many things that can scupper it, if it’s mild it usually verifies. Hopefully things will start ticking down now and firm up

[northwestsnow]

Mean looks decent...

Could do with a flushing out of the mild options over the next 24 hours...

[NewEra21]

Hearing a lot of booms this morning, so I thought I'd check the ensembles. And while the GFS op is a true boom, there really is a big scatter. With the op well on the colder side.

I know there's always going to be scatter, but I'd like to see a few more members going with the op before getting too carried away. Overall still great charts this morning though!

 

[JoeShmoe]

Unsurprisingly GFS Op one of the coldest runs in the suite, plenty of milder options in there. Would need a LOT to go perfectly right in higher res to get that stellar output ...  

[Tim Bland]

Now we are BOOMING well talking!! Finally a good all round set of runs !!! ️

[IDO]

It seems the ops are simply running through the options each run or so, and this morning all on the GH track? Could be an eureka moment or not, will the music stop here? The ecm mean suggests the op is a clear statistical outlier for London:

 d10 ecm mean>

With that sort of graph I would normally dismiss the op run out of hand. But as others have said, that run is what we are expecting as the second stage of the SSWE (post-Arctic high), so it is not that simple.

Great runs this morning and just need to keep the momentum and watch the means improve!

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Great set of charts and runs this morning but BEWARE nothing is nailed even below 72 hours things can quickly go tits up. Remember if it’s cold there’s so many things that can scupper it, if it’s mild it usually verifies. Hopefully things will start ticking down now and firm up

Yes if I bought a bag of pavement salt for every failed cold spell over the years I'd have a heap the size of Ben Nevis (slightly exaggerated, but you get the idea)

Hats off to the Dynamic duo though for predicting how the charts played out, though its not necessarily how the weather pans out, good job all the same!

That is a beauty!........Sod it I'm off to get some salt!

Edited January 11, 2021 by Guest

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Now we are BOOMING well talking!! Finally a good all round set of runs !!! ️

Any snow charts for thursday friday?

[MJB]

8 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Unsurprisingly GFS Op one of the coldest runs in the suite, plenty of milder options in there. Would need a LOT to go perfectly right in higher res to get that stellar output ...  

It's ( OP ) not alone though Joe ,it has plenty of mates hugging the -10 

[John88B]

8 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Hearing a lot of booms this morning, so I thought I'd check the ensembles. And while the GFS op is a true boom, there really is a big scatter. With the op well on the colder side.

I know there's always going to be scatter, but I'd like to see a few more members going with the op before getting too carried away. Overall still great charts this morning though!

 

Hi a real novices question here but is the OP any different to any other of the ensembles. Is it in any way more reliable or just another ensemble run?

[Beanz]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Now we are BOOMING well talking!! Finally a good all round set of runs !!! ️

That’s not a boom chart, that’s la la land 

 

[biggreyface]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Now we are BOOMING well talking!! Finally a good all round set of runs !!! ️

IF and it’s a big if  that predicted snowfall accumulation chart came to fruition.

Boris would be flanked by the chief of gritting adviser and  C .E.O of B +Q snow shovel department  at the daily briefing 

stay at home 

curtain twitch 

lamppost watch 

[Gustywind]

13 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Hearing a lot of booms this morning, so I thought I'd check the ensembles. And while the GFS op is a true boom, there really is a big scatter. With the op well on the colder side.

I know there's always going to be scatter, but I'd like to see a few more members going with the op before getting too carried away. Overall still great charts this morning though!

 

Still got to get past the so far insurmountable obstacle of converting a FI Greenland high scenario into reality, we’ve seen so many of these in the +200 hour range, only to see it quickly fall apart as small features around S Greenland get picked up in the more reliable range & prevent ridging.

 

Will this time be any different? Not confident it will be.

[chris55]

Very little changed this morning. Chance is still there for the SSW influence to bring down some Artic air to the U.K. but it’s still to far out beyond day 7-8 to have to much confidence in the final outcome. Ensembles still with lots of scatter, as you’d expect at that range. 

Still makes for great model watching  

 

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any snow charts for thursday friday?

No, looks like high ground north east only now unfortunately, could come back though.

Has anyone posted the GEM yet?....

[nick sussex]

If you wanted to plot a route forward to the promised land with more hurdles than an army assault course then today’s outputs are for you !

A frenzy of shortwaves which all need to behave . The ensembles are all over the place and show just how fragile any evolution is .

Complex evolutions do happen but not sure many coldies need this much stress along the way .

As Bette Davis said in one of the all time great films All About Eve .

Fasten your seat belts it’s going to be a bumpy night ! 

Or in this case it’s going to be a bumpy ride of model watching !

My red alert system has been activated .

( This alert is activated when the NW helpline needs to recruit emergency staff and where there’s an imminent danger of mass toys out of the pram ,possible  broken dreams of sledges gliding down snowy hills etc .)

 

[O'Maille80]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Very little changed this morning. Chance is still there for the SSW influence to bring down some Artic air to the U.K. but it’s still to far out beyond day 7-8 to have to much confidence in the final outcome. Ensembles still with lots of scatter, as you’d expect at that range. 

Still makes for great model watching  

 

A consistent pattern amongst the major models has emerged. I'd call that positive change. Does it mean we are home and dry? No, far from it as it's too far out as you say and other systems could pop up and spoil it, Still I disagree that nothing has changed.

Edited January 11, 2021 by O'Maille80

[Met4Cast]

Can't help but chuckle at those suggesting this is "nailed on" now, after the complete despair in here last night when just about every model collapsed the high. The GFS & ECM were fairly big outliers, indeed the EC Det was in a minority cluster later on in the run.

How anyone can see an ensemble chart with a spread that large and say the pattern is "nailed on" boggles the mind. Will it be turning colder again? Yes. I think we can be certain of that, will it be bitterly cold & snowy? Possibly, but that remains a lower probability at the moment. 

Certainly some beautiful synoptics & snow charts out in the extended this morning, but until we start seeing more support for it, it's difficult to say exactly where we're heading.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC on the ball! from around Next Mon? deep FI though, want good models to help move borefest quarantine along quicker

[MJB]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Can't help but chuckle at those suggesting this is "nailed on" now, after the complete despair in here last night when just about every model collapsed the high. The GFS & ECM were fairly big outliers, indeed the EC Det was in a minority cluster later on in the run.

How anyone can see an ensemble chart with a spread that large and say the pattern is "nailed on" boggles the mind. Will it be turning colder again? Yes. I think we can be certain of that, will it be bitterly cold & snowy? Possibly, but that remains a lower probability at the moment. 

Certainly some beautiful synoptics & snow charts out in the extended this morning, but until we start seeing more support for it, it's difficult to say exactly where we're heading.

And that won't happen until we are in the 72-96h , you are never going to see it as this range