Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

[Allseasons-Si]

GEM at 240...

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Kasim greenie heights arent being modelled any later its same time frame as yesterday haha

Unbelievable morning for upgrades.

Steve will be happy to see his cut off high back in the game across the board!

The Arctic heights are unbelievably different on the GFS op compared to the 18z run, do you think this could be down the the subsequent warmings that are happening?

Edited January 11, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Mucka]

So my assessment would be great output this morning. UKMO looks good to me and GFS Op, GFSp (and GEM) are all there by day 10

Of course plenty of water to pass under the bridge before we can dream and we await ECM but as far as direction of travel is concerned we couldn't ask for much more this far out.

 

GFS Op, GFSp. GEM day 10

[northwestsnow]

Fabulous upgrades this morning.

Just what the doctor ordered !!

Come ON ecm !!!

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The Arctic heights are unbelievably different on the GFS op compared to the 18z run, do you think this could be down the the subsequent warmings that are happening?

The amount of data that has been made available in just 6 hours with these sudden events - yes - I think it's possible. 

[snowlessayr]

Highly unlikely to come off exactly as the 0z GFS run has just done. 

By my word if it did, very severe cold and setting up a northerly reload now as well. Uppers comparable with BFTE 2018 but instead of late Feb into march it is slap bang in the middle of winter. 

I don't usually comment on individual runs but my god I need a lie down

[Barmada_Casten]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not really - good chance the Azores high will be phased out over time with this pattern, even if initially it is somewhat of a limiting factor as @Mucka pointed out.

As @Scott Ingham pointed out, the model bias favours the GFS in the Greenland amplification department, so I'm fairly confident that the ECM at half 6 will make a move towards increase easterly vectors around D4-7. In theory this will increase efficiency of the retrogression, amplification. 

there was a really good list earlier in the thread which gave % chances of certain scenarios coming off. I go with the one which said this upcoming cold spell will be similar to the last one with some enormous satisfaction and a lot of disappointment. There is something afoot but I don’t feel it will be nationwide or significant.

However I do enjoy your posts they are very informative and I certainly hope you are right!

 

P.S: Has anyone been to sleep yet?!

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The Arctic heights are unbelievably different on the GFS op compared to the 18z run, do you think this could be down the the subsequent warnings that are happening?

Its down to the models getting a better grasp of the first of three warmings i believe. The next 2 warmings likely wont show till the week afters weather and extend the cold spell

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

GEM at 240...

Oh how we need EC to follow.

Feels like a cruel game chasing cold at times, the one straggler who says no is usually the right one.

We need ,absolutely,a better ECM today.

[Scott Ingham]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not really - good chance the Azores high will be phased out over time with this pattern, even if initially it is somewhat of a limiting factor as @Mucka pointed out.

As @Scott Ingham pointed out, the model bias favours the GFS in the Greenland amplification department, so I'm fairly confident that the ECM at half 6 will make a move towards increase easterly vectors around D4-7. In theory this will increase efficiency of the retrogression, amplification. 

I would say whilst models could flip yet again today we are in the strongest position yet for true brutal cold.

Can we get this cut off greenie high cross model and counted down

[Kasim Awan]

04:30-06:30 is the best time to be on this forum, avoid the crowd, nice and quiet chat. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I feel there always has to be someone in here to put a downer on things or at least be critical. Helps keep things grounded.

Yep, the name is ECM ..

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yep, the name is ECM ..

Oh, I may have to change my name to "ECM" then, and have character to fit. Yesterday Steve definitely took on the ECM role. 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I would say whilst models could flip yet again today we are in the strongest position yet for true brutal cold.

Can we get this cut off greenie high cross model and counted down

Yes, speaking on statistical terms it is possible for the limiting factors to become more pronounced, the judgement of a favour towards clean amplification does not discount this either. What's important imo is there seems to be an overriding signal for amplification towards Greenland & now increasingly the Arctic. Very interesting and this will likely stump out any insignificant limiting factor. 

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Oh, I may have to change my name to "ECM" then, and have character to fit. Yesterday Steve definitely took on the ECM role. 

GFS ensembles aren't firmly behind the Op by any means, (they aren't bad, just nothing to throw your hat on, not even the control so plenty of angst to come and caution is wise. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

so, about that GFS...wee bit nippy

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles aren't firmly behind the Op by any means, (they aren't bad, just nothing to throw your hat on, not even the control so plenty of angst to come and caution is wise. 

Yes, related to the limitations I mentioned before. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes, related to the limitations I mentioned before. 

I didn't think many would follow the op depth of cold wise.

Synoptically we would like others to follow the op..

[Stu_London]

Not a bad GFS with a very notable 7 day cold spell in FI.

What I did take from this mornings runs is there is a move towards some model consensus is the semi-reliable timeframe which is, of course, the building block stage of the cold spell.

Would like some tighter ensembles, and of course the elephant in the room is the ECM, but baby steps this morning. 

I'll stick to my original musing that things will look much clearer by Thursday or Friday, with more model consistency (good or bad) by then. 

 

 

 

[O'Maille80]

The GFS parallel has us buried in FI.

[Scott Ingham]

That  gfs run is the best run ive ever seen! 

Are we saying its an outlier in the ensembles?

[northwestsnow]

Mean is very nice day 10 ...

[Kentspur]

0z ensembles Averaging minus 4 to minus 5.5c uppers in the SE here so id imagine further north a couple degrees colder, op was within the envelope of ensembles in the main

Edited January 11, 2021 by Kentspur

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

That  gfs run is the best run ive ever seen! 

Are we saying its an outlier in the ensembles?

Looking at the day 10 mean it’s definitely at outlier with its 850s, but in general the direction of flow has support. 
If the ECM follows the GFS Op, I’d say we should take note.

That GFS Op run was exceptional, if only a few days out you’d be talking Historic , and COBRA would be meeting!! 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Ali1977

[Stu_London]

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

0z ensembles Averaging minus 5c uppers in the SE here so id imagine further north a couple degrees colder, op was within the envelope of ensembles in the main

Remarkable!

There is one at +5 and another at -12 at around day 6!

Critically that is the key time for whether we get something like the GFS or alternatively, more akin to the last few ECM runs. 

Need tighter clustering before we we call for Michael Gove.

Edited January 11, 2021 by Stu_London