Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

Birmingham eastwards perhaps Thurs evening?

Given the current output yes - however this front is on the northern side of the low so west adjustments possible in next few hours. 

[CSC]

-4°c or -10°c? There is a huge variation and just D4. This has major repercussions to whether we see widespread snow or rain! 

 

[Daniel]

Gfs mean 

[Matt H]

GEFS 18z mean is an upgrade with more ridging into Greenland.

12z:

18z:

 

[Jason H]

Is it a Greenland ridge? A Greenland wedge? A surface Greenland High? A high Greenland high? Runs..... Joking aside, they don't look too bad.

[Pembroke Dangler]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

GEFS 18z mean is an upgrade with more ridging into Greenland.

12z:

18z:

 

Didn’t see that coming at all after the op run to be honest, this has westward corrections written all over it this week coming the warm front could stall on the England wales border at this rate come Thursday it’s happened before a certain January 2013 event comes to mind

[Updated_Weather]

Didn’t go through the 18z run.. taking it from how Twitter is reacting? It’s jumped onto ECMs back?

any support in the ensembles?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

18z mean at 192  12z at 204  where that BFTE equivalent level of cold is now  192 mean   Don’t see much point stressing there are going to be swings from run to run given all that’s happening, SSW, and I’m still wondering similar to @Singularity that the MJO might be adding to the models confusions in placements of the ridges and troughs, I’ll repeat what I said to myself in my earlier post today stay calm

[MJB]

10 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Didn’t go through the 18z run.. taking it from how Twitter is reacting? It’s jumped onto ECMs back?

any support in the ensembles?

GEFS look good IMO up to 240 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

25 minutes ago, Jason H said:

Is it a Greenland ridge? A Greenland wedge? A surface Greenland High? A high Greenland high? Runs..... Joking aside, they don't look too bad.

I don't care if its a Greenland ridge,an alaskan ridge,an outer Mongolian ridge,or a ridge in the Black Hole of Calcutta....its a ridge...and the Vortex is completely displaced from the Western side...

Actually I'm a bit worried about that..in chart 1 the Vortex is giving us the fingers..in the second chart its giving us the middle finger

Edited January 10, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Cryosphere.]

59 minutes ago, ianmm94 said:

Here come the doom and gloom posts again

still lots to chase for the British Bulldog yet....

[Matt H]

Ensembles are fantastic still with an average of around -5C from the 15th onwards with a decent cluster around -10C by the 22nd still as well. On to the 00zs, night everyone.

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I don't care if its a Greenland ridge,an alaskan ridge,an outer Mongolian ridge,or a ridge in the Black Hole of Calcutta....its a ridge...and the Vortex is completely displaced from the Western side...

Displaced vortex but we’ve been stung so many times by the residual energy left in the exact area it’s being modelled.

Lets hope this time our ticket to the Siberian express is valid, the ECM having too much energy going over the top as we’ve seen so many times in the past worries me.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Remember saying last week, I’ve seen models struggling to conclude what will happen 72-96hrs out. It’s happening right now. No point in even batting an eyelid at day 10 and beyond at the moment. The focus now lies in that low heading down the Norwegian Sea, and the heights to our NE, and if we can bring in a flash easterly to turn that front into a snow fest! 

Edited January 10, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Scott Ingham]

35 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

GEFS 18z mean is an upgrade with more ridging into Greenland.

12z:

18z:

 

Well this tells its own story.

Gefs if anything is firming up on this now

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Well this tells its own story.

Gefs if anything is firming up on this now

GFS and GEFS moving towards a solution whilst the ECM much less into it, what could possibly go wrong  

Meanwhile, the GFS control is about to go full Kim Jong Un

 

[GSP]

Some important changes medium term run to run leaving many options still on the table.

[Scott Ingham]

8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS and GEFS moving towards a solution whilst the ECM much less into it, what could possibly go wrong  

Meanwhile, the GFS control is about to go full Kim Jong Un

 

I think i have covered why I like GFS in these scenarios with Steve earlier but needless to say its not as far fetched as you may think.

@Kasim Awan

What was the period the GFS nailed the ECM with greenie heights this year when i had the same debate with you over GFS being superior in the north atlantic?

Its happened once already this winter

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I think i have covered why I like GFS in these scenarios with Steve earlier but needless to say its not as far fetched as you may think.

@Kasim Awan

What was the period the GFS nailed the ECM with greenie heights this year when i had the same debate with you over GFS being superior in the north atlantic?

Its happened once already this winter

The big win of GFS over ECM and UKMO in December was about trop stuff, the SSW hadn’t happened then, now I’m not so sure, things are a bit more 3 dimensional!!  So you would look to ECM, GFS // to have the best handle on it, UKMO too, but it only goes to T144.  I think it is very uncertain but if you have a decent prior (Bayesian term) in your mind of where this is going, I wouldn’t be too worried about today’s output. 

[Scott Ingham]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The big win of GFS over ECM and UKMO in December was about trop stuff, the SSW hadn’t happened then, now I’m not so sure, things are a bit more 3 dimensional!!  So you would look to ECM, GFS // to have the best handle on it, UKMO too, but it only goes to T144.  I think it is very uncertain but if you have a decent prior (Bayesian term) in your mind of where this is going, I wouldn’t be too worried about today’s output. 

Yeah it was driven by high momentum and an mojo phase on top of a mountain torque but it still involved amplification in the atlantic and phasing of lows in america.

Its modelling of the lows in america that gfs is king at

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The big win of GFS over ECM and UKMO in December was about trop stuff, the SSW hadn’t happened then, now I’m not so sure, things are a bit more 3 dimensional!!  So you would look to ECM, GFS // to have the best handle on it, UKMO too, but it only goes to T144.  I think it is very uncertain but if you have a decent prior (Bayesian term) in your mind of where this is going, I wouldn’t be too worried about today’s output. 

I’ve found it very amusing that the collapse of the high shown on the ECM is down to a low pressure system that is currently in the Pacific Ocean. I would not be worrying yet at all! How it behaves over the US will give us a better idea. That is still 3 to 4 days away yet! 

[Kasim Awan]

14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah it was driven by high momentum and an mojo phase on top of a mountain torque but it still involved amplification in the atlantic and phasing of lows in america.

Its modelling of the lows in america that gfs is king at

Yes, and if you look at America now you will see the GFS has a better handling on the low - the ECM is alone with the Michigan low at 120 hours. Will find the charts for it, the GFS was predicting strong Greenland amplification & the ECM / UKMO a "flat" pattern around Xmas, the ECM / UKMO switched to the GFS on one 00z suite. 

[Bartlett High]

Ugh!! I've gone from feeling extremely optimistic late December about a decent cold and snowy Jan to slowly becoming more and more pessimistic as we move through this month...it's now the 11th and still huge uncertainty in the models remains and I've now noticed we might not see benefits of SSW until beginning of Feb! .....think I'll take a break and come back in a few days.

[Jason M]

6 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Ugh!! I've gone from feeling extremely optimistic late December about a decent cold and snowy Jan to slowly becoming more and more pessimistic as we move through this month...it's now the 11th and still huge uncertainty in the models remains and I've now noticed we might not see benefits of SSW until beginning of Feb! .....think I'll take a break and come back in a few days.

No offense, but we could easily manage without a Bartlett high right now. Come back in mid March 

joking aside I know what you mean but it can all change quickly.

[LoisE]

2 hours ago, Frosty Winter said:

GEFS 18z mean is an upgrade with more ridging into Greenland.

12z:

18z:

 

Could you please explain what "upgrade" means on the 18z GEFZ weather model compared to the earlier version? Is it using new technology or something? Thank you.