Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

[damianslaw]

23 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The anomalies can be misleading when heights are weak they’re not really influential Greenland heights, I don’t think we should dress it up a step in wrong direction this evening. Let’s hope it pulls back a bit in morning and ideally with a good ECM op. All models are struggling and ens won’t be an exception. 
 

>

Just my observation but probably not backed up by stats so completely ignore, but I note the models tend to perform more poorly on a Sunday for some reason..and we see marked corrections on a Monday.

[Singularity]

 

Hmm - note the colder 'tail' on the 18z. Variations here may be a factor in the chaos we're seeing below - though surely not the full story.

[Jason M]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hows the snow looking on the 18z gfs for thursday friday?para had some as posted above!

Most places in the east see some as far down as London. Front dies quickly after transition though which is to be expected as high pressure will squash the front like a bug!

EDIT: Ignore as I was looking at the GFSP. Snow chance much less on GFS Opp

Edited January 10, 2021 by Jason M

[Frostbite1980]

5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Looks like the Atlantic amplification is heading towards a potent NEasterly if it doesn’t collapse too quickly

Too much energy coming out NE US looking likely to sink the high over the UK?

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z is a decent run, here T204, the red line follows the 1025 mb contour, and gives a chance to move the cold towards us as per the arrow.  

[Mr snowman 2018]

Yet again we are chasing charts again in the fi timeframe I’m afraid anything decent is always +192 hours plus This SSW could easily affect the USA and we stay on the mild side unfortunately I see this scenario playing out this time around ! 

[london-snow]

Just an observation but don’t we usually see e-w patterns back west (westward correction) as time progresses towards a possible cold outbreak from the east or north east.

[ianmm94]

Here come the doom and gloom posts again

[Mr snowman 2018]

3 minutes ago, ianmm94 said:

Here come the doom and gloom posts again

Not doom and gloom at all it’s the UK we are used to disappointment  in winter as it’s the normal now and it has been for a long time the exception being 2010 and 2018 !

Edited January 10, 2021 by Mr snowman 2018
Spelling correction

[Tim Bland]

18z is a good run. Produces snow, especially for the East. It’s completely different to the earlier runs or to ECM so can’t give it much credence. As long as we get snow i’m not fussed what direction / Synoptic is comes via!

[MJB]

After the last few sets of GEFS , I 'm betting this will be on the high side 

[IDO]

Not a bad run for cold up to d10 even though it moved towards the ecm with the downstream pattern, a reversal of the trough (PV chunk) as it returns towards the Arctic. It did in the intervening time bring with it a much colder upper flow so we have some better cold pooling. d10 chart:

 

I would bank that but we have to see how this pattern, if it has taken a turn away from Greenland heights, develops in future runs, as the ecm is not so good by d10.

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

5 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Yet again we are chasing charts again in the fi timeframe I’m afraid anything decent is always +192 hours plus This SSW could easily affect the USA and we stay on the mild side unfortunately I see this scenario playing out this time around ! 

Eh?  I'm sure the landing point for proper cold has been 20/21 January for days now?

That is still 240 hours away based on the current output?

[Frostbite1980]

I have seen enough.....too much energy going over the top of the ridge...there is only one way this run is going and that is as flat as a pancake. Tomorrow is another day so hopefully we see a better day of op runs

[damianslaw]

Sound a broken record but always best to stick to the reliable timeframe which right now is very short, no more than 96 hrs tops, expect lots of intra-run changes from the models period thereafter before they get to grips with the outfall of the effects of the SSW, which could well take a few days..

[Battleground Snow]

Para is trying to recover something at 210, but it's one big mess. One thing of note is the difference of the Arctic high.. on the OP it's virtually gone, but on the para it's still going strong at 1045mb

Night all, back to full time work tomorrow.

[Griff]

Para going to an extreme to test the "all roads" theory... 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I have seen enough.....too much energy going over the top of the ridge...there is only one way this run is going and that is as flat as a pancake. Tomorrow is another day so hopefully we see a better day of op runs

Flat as a pancake.... 

[CSC]

For the doom and Gloomers, it’s clear GFS OP is an obvious outlier and its fiat to say the models don’t have a clue what’s going on even at t48, t72. Check these 2m temp forecasts from the ensembles tonight. Some say 9c, some say freezing at 0c. The GFS are clueless   right now! 

 

 

[ianmm94]

2 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Not doom and gloom at all it’s the UK we are used to disappointment  in winter as it’s the normal now and it has been for a long time the exception being 2010 and 2018 !

The models are all over the place at the moment, which is usually a better sign for us than the usual +NAO winters with a euro high. Look at the NH view on the 12z compared to the 18, it's completely different in the latter stages which shows the volatility that's going on at the moment

[Daniel*]

GFS sure loves blowing up lows everywhere. Not realistic.

[Allseasons-Si]

No doom and gloom from me,we have to get this week nailed on yet never mind day ten!

the NWP'S(numerical weather patterns) are still toying with the nuances from the SSW and this won't be settled for a good few days yet, initial SSW date was the 5th Jan and we are only 5 days in and it will take another good 5 days> before the lag effect down wells into the trop,landing zone at the earliest,..20th>

 

[CSC]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

No doom and gloom from me,we have to get this week nailed on yet never mind day ten!

the NWP'S(numerical weather patterns) are still toying with the nuances from the SSW and this won't be settled for a good few days yet, initial SSW date was the 5th Jan and we are only 5 days in and it will take another good 5 days> before the lag effect down wells into the trop,landing zone at the earliest,..20th>

 

Good to hear some still have optimism!

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Flat as a pancake.... 

The energy coming out of the US is going to go over the ridge and flattern the pattern in future frames IMO

[bluearmy]

Not to put too much of a downer on the evening but that T222 para is a very similar height pattern to the ec mean ...... nite ...

    

Edited January 10, 2021 by bluearmy