Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

[Met4Cast]

That's a shame, I paused the Eastenders omnibus to watch the drama in here unfold. 

Given the ECM has huge spread at just day 2, I'm not sure why people are worrying about what the model shows at day 10. We're seeing a period of high model volatility at the moment as they begin to resolve downwelling & impacts from the SSW. We've seen the entire GEFS suite shift from milder to colder in a single run. 

Worrying about an ECM day 10 chart is futile at the moment. 

21st onwards. That's when the goods will come. Anything before that is a bonus.

[Jason M]

Some of the moderating in here tonight was so quick it would have make Billy the Kid wary on the draw! Well done!!

 

[Man With Beard]

Apologies if I've played a part in derailing the thread ... Back on track then - looking at the ecm ensembles D10-D15 doesn't really provide a useful steer tonight - I'm seeing three types of runs in general

 1. some cold runs but they generally are close to being mild with a twitch (similar to GFS 12Z) - example below

2. runs where blocking to the north is weak, the jet therefore is reflected south but not far south enough to be sure of getting on the south side of the jet 

3. and some runs where all evidence of heights has gone, instead ridging to the south is significant again and therefore mild 

 

Coldies will need to hope Chiono is right!

 

 

 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

That's a shame, I paused the Eastenders omnibus to watch the drama in here unfold. 

Given the ECM has huge spread at just day 2, I'm not sure why people are worrying about what the model shows at day 10. We're seeing a period of high model volatility at the moment as they begin to resolve downwelling & impacts from the SSW. We've seen the entire GEFS suite shift from milder to colder in a single run. 

Worrying about an ECM day 10 chart is futile at the moment. 

21st onwards. That's when the goods will come. Anything before that is a bonus.

Yes, wholeheartedly agree with this, once you get into this level of uncertainty, entire suites can shift and that is noise not the signal.  And it isn’t confined to one model, all the op runs will likely throw out an epic run or garbage run here and there.  Patience required, and we will soon see where this is heading...but for the moment, from the model output at least, it is not clear.

[Matt H]

1 minute ago, Barmada_Casten said:

I firmly believe this thread should have an age limit and be restricted to sensible posters to filter out the vast nonsense and make it more palatable.

Sorry but I don’t agree with this. There are many young people, including myself, that enjoy contributing to this thread due to our love of weather and model watching. Dismissing people’s posts as ‘nonsense’ due to their age is unfair.

[Allseasons-Si]

Some subtle differences just at 90...

the jet more buckled NW>SE hence slightly more amplified heights to our north

18z 90 v's 12z 96.

 

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Absolutely bang on mate. I would also add Thundery Wintry Showers (who doesn’t seem to post here) and Wirral based Stephen Prudence who as far as I am aware is no longer based on the forum.

I was attacked on the north west regional thread for posting the same thoughts as you, and I have often been attacked on the forum because I will blatantly refuse to big up cold snowy winters.

I firmly believe this thread should have an age limit and be restricted to sensible posters to filter out the vast nonsense and make it more palatable.

Yeah I highly valued their opinions too great posters.

Kind of goes against the entire point of discussion if your not allowed a differing opinion

[Climate Man]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Sorry but I don’t agree with this. There are many young people, including myself, that enjoy contributing to this thread due to our love of weather and model watching. Dismissing people’s posts as ‘nonsense’ due to their age is unfair.

Indeed, and you only become an experienced poster by starting at the beginning.  I have studied, weather and particularly climate for 40 years and learn on here every day.

[sheikhy]

Slightly stronger scandi heights at 114 hours!!defo fight back from the east in the last 24 hours!!

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Apologies if I've played a part in derailing the thread ... Back on track then - looking at the ecm ensembles D10-D15 doesn't really provide a useful steer tonight - I'm seeing three types of runs in general

 1. some cold runs but they generally are close to being mild with a twitch (similar to GFS 12Z) - example below

2. runs where blocking to the north is weak, the jet therefore is reflected south but not far south enough to be sure of getting on the south side of the jet 

3. and some runs where all evidence of heights has gone, instead ridging to the south is significant again and therefore mild 

 

Coldies will need to hope Chiono is right!

 

 

 

I had that feeling looking at the eps run come out ....but then the ec suite can often do that on a single run. The change from the previous run was more low heights where we want high and vice versa. But not enough to change the location of anomalys as we expect to currently see them.  there is momentum in the wrong direction but it’s not strong enough to be too concerning just yet. 

[Daniel*]

The anomalies can be misleading when heights are weak they’re not really influential Greenland heights, I don’t think we should dress it up a step in wrong direction this evening. Let’s hope it pulls back a bit in morning and ideally with a good ECM op. All models are struggling and ens won’t be an exception. 
 

>

[jam]

10 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Absolutely bang on mate. I would also add Thundery Wintry Showers (who doesn’t seem to post here) and Wirral based Stephen Prudence who as far as I am aware is no longer based on the forum.

I was attacked on the north west regional thread for posting the same thoughts as you, and I have often been attacked on the forum because I will blatantly refuse to big up cold snowy winters.

I firmly believe this thread should have an age limit and be restricted to sensible posters to filter out the vast nonsense and make it more palatable.

Use the block user facility... like I’m about to do 

[Jason M]

4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Sorry but I don’t agree with this. There are many young people, including myself, that enjoy contributing to this thread due to our love of weather and model watching. Dismissing people’s posts as ‘nonsense’ due to their age is unfair.

Yep, especially when the rudest responses often come from older members. Anyways onto the next set of runs.

[Matt H]

Just now, Climate Man said:

Indeed, and you only become an experienced poster by starting at the beginning.  I have studied, weather and particularly climate for 40 years and learn on here every day.

Absolutely, I’ve learnt so much by reading this forum over the years and it has been great getting involved in the conversation this winter for the first time.

[GSP]

Out to 126 and that low is too near Iceland again.

[bobbydog]

Ok.... we want the low over Iceland to stall and sink..

This was a much weaker feature on the ECM

Let's see...

[Battleground Snow]

Looks likes it's shaping up good again on the GFS op. Similar to the 12z run which is nice. Low is cut off, will if have enough ooomph to push heights far enough North, compared to ecm

Let's hope we can get the para back on board and make that 12z ECM a distant memory.

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I had that feeling looking at the eps run come out ....but then the ec suite can often do that on a single run. The change from the previous run was more low heights where we want high and vice versa. But not enough to change the location of anomalys as we expect to currently see them.  there is momentum in the wrong direction but it’s not strong enough to be too concerning just yet. 

Yes, completely agree, ensembles not particularly consistent at the moment either! Until we see a few runs in a row with a similar pattern, I'll be considering everything as "trends" only

[sheikhy]

Gone towards ecm im afraid at 156 hours!!those heights just seem to vanish in the same area on this run!!!

[Barmada_Casten]

Looks like I have opened Pandora’s box. Apologies to anyone offended genuinely was not meant to. Now more than ever we need to stick together! B.C.

[The Eagle]

Looks like a step toward the ECM here. More progressive off Newfoundland @ 144hrs, heights not as evident over GL

[sheikhy]

Hold on are we about to be rescued with a further wedge of heights into greenland....

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Sorry but I don’t agree with this. There are many young people, including myself, that enjoy contributing to this thread due to our love of weather and model watching. Dismissing people’s posts as ‘nonsense’ due to their age is unfair.

Absolutely bang on with this...

people come on here to learn from the more experienced people on here,...and i am still learning 9 years in lol,i started at the bottom since 2012 but i wished that i was on here during the 2010 cold spell 

as a balanced poster/viewer (and i speak from experience),with the occasional ramp just for fun of course that model viewing past 96>120 hrs is purely looking for trends,...THIS should be noted to any newcomer on here as we have said this umpteen times already.

 

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, jam said:

Use the block user facility... like I’m about to do 

We would much rather people use the ignore facility than negatively respond to posts they don't like, for sure. 

But I will add, we have absolutely no plans to put an age limit on this or any threads on this site. I joined this site when I was 15, posting on here helped nurture my interest in meteorology. That then lead to a degree in meteorology, and now I'm employed as a meteorologist and have been for the last 6 years. There will be numerous other young people on this forum who could potentially follow that path, and posting on here will continue to nurture that interest.

So, yes, please use the ignore facility. But we have a wealth of knowledge and posts from all ages on this forum. Anyway, let's get back to discussing model output and put this evening's drama behind us, and thank you to all who reported posts - that's the way to deal with issues.

[Weathizard]

GFS moves to the ECM, however it still persists with the core of the heights significantly further west than the ECM