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Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Way Hey!!!

ECM at 192...

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.a3be5298e59f6842f8d33acb39d07895.gif

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

At +144h I wondered how the rounder shaped Arctic High would change the outcome. Here it gets stretched in the right direction I'd say. It is not far from GFS.
Those lingering heights over France are a pain though. Let's see what happens there +192h.

The low is a very weak affair on the ECM at 144, which doesn't have enough strength to push the ridge higher into greenland. A blend of the ECM and GFS would be perfect

Screenshot_20210110-184148.png

Edited by Battleground Snow
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goosey007 Community Regular

goosey007

Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
Posted
7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Not great at 192

4AB0A559-D456-405D-8915-F1BA637E24E5.png

Looks full of potential to me 

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted (edited)

Mixed emotions tonight

Excellent 12z GFS but another very poor ECM ...

Another day of waiting ....

The ECM OP continually being the odd one out - it has a history of being volatile - but we do need the euros on board...

Edited by Steve Murr
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Not great at 192

4AB0A559-D456-405D-8915-F1BA637E24E5.png

I thought it looked fine, surely the cold is about to unload at day 9/10? (As usual, I know )

Edited by Weathizard
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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

Stunning differences 24 hours apart.

EC 192h yesterday and 168 today. Atlantic, Arctic, Europe: all different.

Illustrates what @Kasim Awan said earlier. So many changes at a timeframe where EC-Op usually excels.

EC-192 9jan12.png

EC-168 10jan12.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Sure it's not optimal. It's a trend towards the GFS/GEM though.

Agreed.

27B32280-38E4-4CCE-B6C5-AE62BD73785E.png

8BC19C9C-C5AF-42F3-B787-8A0B00CABCA1.png

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Way Hey!!!

ECM at 192...

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.a3be5298e59f6842f8d33acb39d07895.gif

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMISH

 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Mixed emotions tonight

Excellent 12z GFS but another very poor ECM ...

Another day of waiting ....

Yes at first glance it is better than the 00z but looks like toppling to me.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
Just now, Djdazzle said:

If the ECM 192 is poor, people are setting their bar way too high. Not as good as GFS, but it’s a good chart.

Yep I am I want a stonking Greenland block with -12 850s wide spread with heavy snow ❄️ . 

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NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted
Just now, Djdazzle said:

If the ECM 192 is poor, people are setting their bar way too high. Not as good as GFS, but it’s a good chart.

100% agree. I think some are just expecting too much too soon, the overall pattern across all models is now looking very promising. So much better than just 24 hours ago. 

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Way Hey!!!

ECM at 192...

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.a3be5298e59f6842f8d33acb39d07895.gif

Not the best - lot of pressure on the Greenland high and set for a slow sinker. 

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

If the ECM 192 is poor, people are setting their bar way too high. Not as good as GFS, but it’s a good chart.

That’s because some here are hyping every run too much. that shows maximum cold... and forgetting that ALL models are swinging like crazy even in short range. Let the 3rd warming develop and kill the PV first, then watch the outcome...

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

You can’t polish a turd the ECM is rubbish . Sorry to be the grinch but it is . 

DA05F8E9-A2D7-4AD7-A1D8-7BE6C6FE5239.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The 216 is even worse...

As Said 2 days ago ..... Need to keep firmly grounded here. No booms or anything else until Euros on board.

ECM to me isn't terrible? Mid Atlantic high setting up in a position favourable for continued bouts of amplification.

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

ECM to me isn't terrible? Mid Atlantic high setting up in a position favourable for continued bouts of amplification.

Yes, despite what I said, I expect day 10 to be full of promise (is it Groundhog day yet?). 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Face value - ECM is a brief northerly before a return to westerlies. I guess the issue is that the model is being rather resistant to building substantial blocking unlike other models and this has happened for a few runs. Hopefully if it does go more blocked that the ECM will nail it.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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