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Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
36 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo looks good to me at 144!

Cut off nicely and ridge about to head up

UN144-21 (13).gif

Still got the good ol' Iberian heights stuck there though...UKMO very similar to ECM 0z at that time.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The GEM also getting there at 180...

gemnh-0-180.thumb.png.c67628e85d14e519cbffd9ddbabac1e6.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Sods law that as soon as GFS comes on board the GFSp jumps ship due to that random small low south of Greenland.
 

Remember though the GFS 06z was a warm Outlier so we expected this run.   I suspect GFSp is an outlier now...shame we can’t see it’s ensembles.   Even this run shows some interest though !

1A9F3E20-91D3-4299-953E-2BB21533FACA.png

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted
27 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS shows front stalking and turning to Snow on Friday. Not as much as ECM as the front fizzles in situ...

22C7CAA0-CD1C-4E4B-B701-AD6076F49B60.png

So does the GEM:

image.thumb.png.92549cb0d60fbda18514eb7c62c49708.png

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Nice blizzard on the op here

 

gfsnh-2-282.png

I think this has been modelled for around there, off and on, for a few days recently.

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Still got the good ol' Iberian heights stuck there though...UKMO very similar to ECM 0z at that time.

The UKMO is awful to be honest - miles apart from the GFS!

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

GFS T288 - channel low deluxe!

gfs-0-282.thumb.png.a16b9318eca55822b1455a3015057997.png

However, as much as I enjoy watching these runs coming out, I do get the feeling the models are not doing too well with this SSW. They've all flip-flopped with small features at D3/D4, and they are coming up with wildly different ideas run to run for D7 onwards. UKMO in particular, what is going on there, so often in the past the stable one, but nothing stable about it at the moment.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

IF the gfs was to be correct someone is going to get plastered with snow big time from the 20th>

 

 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The problem with the current evolution is the risk of a west based negative NAO .

Ironically the colder the earlier timeframe as in some sourcing of the flow from the east the more danger of that happening because the drop down point of low pressure to the nw will be further west .

You then need a series of steps to happen at the right time so too much amplitude at the wrong time v not enough etc .

There is certainly potential for an interesting few weeks of weather but there is by no means a stress free route to that .

Do you try  and bank more earlier cold or do you do go for the Greenland block much later on .

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

Errrr... Shannon has entered the building

image.thumb.png.f60906ab1544227993bcab6cb7513825.png

 

image.thumb.png.11b3e6d5ce677b5680e591488d19e514.png

 

 

Edited by winterof79
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Ventnor Viking Enthusiast

Ventnor Viking

Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
Posted

The last 3rd of January could be very interesting in terms of cold. For me the most important aspect of this transition to very cold is the low coming up from the south west. This will not only bring a lot of snow to the midlands north initially as it under cuts the cold air, but will also strengthen the north-easterly feed and bring it further south. That low will be the proper start and should be seen as the feature that drags the deep cold over the line (south coast)! 

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The GEM also getting there at 180...

gemnh-0-180.thumb.png.c67628e85d14e519cbffd9ddbabac1e6.png

GEM and UKMO at +144h not entirely unlike, especially near Labrador, where the new ridging takes off. GEM at the later timeframes might therefore give some clues about the direction UKMO would have taken.

 

GEM-144 10jan12.png

UK-144 10jan12.GIF

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Here’s the Ukmo 12h T+144 hours..erm..erm..yeah..ach, I’ve seen worse, but then..I’ve seen better..ach..why do I bother?:drunk-emoji:

2DDDDB66-2A5D-4DE8-926C-1086BFC7214D.thumb.gif.67259016ce83dfb024bf337f6e7aa59e.gif

 

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sukayuonsensnow Enthusiast

sukayuonsensnow

Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
Posted

GFS12 is a bank, me thinks!

Doubt it will come off anything close to this, but one winter lover can dream.........

Screenshot 2021-01-10 at 16.50.35.png

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

Wait until the 3. warming splits (terminates) the PV... that will be an epic end of January...

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Keep an eye on the short term as well folks!!ukmo pushes things slightly further west between 72 and 96 hours compared to the 00z run!!!hopefully ecm does the same!!!some peeps wont have to wait till day 10 to see snow if this carries on!could be more day 3 to 5!!

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The UKMO is awful to be honest - miles apart from the GFS!

Only time will tell...

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The GEM at 240,...

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.a5449be1cc558ddc074f19c1da3214a1.png

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