Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[That ECM]

The Arctic high really is something.

[northwestsnow]

Look at that NH profile...

[Nick F]

The weak jet across the Atlantic struggling to may any eastward progress into western Europe against a Scandi high that develops later in the coming week, some waves developing in the jet too, with a low breaking off/disrupting SE next weekend, as previous run, but with colder sub -5C T850 continental flow established by back door NEly/Ely across England and Wales than 00z by then.

Very uncertain synoptic evolution through latter part of the week, with FI close, as models struggle with meandering weak jet over Atlantic and cold blocking HP close to the east.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Nick F

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Look at that NH profile...

Positive NAO ?

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Look at that NH profile...

Looks like a typical late March profile with PV dissipating!

[Battleground Snow]

Can see what happens if the low doesn't cut off. Not sure if this will be good in FI now.

 

[bluearmy]

The op gfs looks flat approaching day 8. But the development of that small low between the ridges which is now on its way into Europe could distort the next few days output  - how likely is that feature to do what it’s doing on this run? 
 

sadly, another run which is clearly unreliable in the medium term. given that we don’t have any confidence in this period, will be interesting to see how the cold surge is handled and whether we get any greeny height rise later in week 2 .  The detail irrelevant as the starting point for the interactions not going to be nearly right imo  ....

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The op gfs looks flat approaching day 8. But the development of that small low between the ridges which is now on its way into Europe could distort the next few days output  - how likely is that feature to do what it’s doing on this run? 
 

sadly, another run which is clearly unreliable in the medium term. given that we don’t have any confidence in this period, will be interesting to see how the cold surge is handled and whether we get any greeny height rise later in week 2 .  The detail irrelevant as the starting point for the interactions not going to be nearly right imo  ....

Agreed but the ridge still trying to go up.

[Tim Bland]

By 192 we are in a fairly similar position to the 00z though. The Greenland ridge is a consistent signal by day 9 now 

[sheikhy]

Right whats happend with the 06z in my opinion is 2 things!!1st the pattern is aint edged far enough east early on to let the amplification in across greenland later!!number 2 is we have pushed that front back  west early in the week but we dont get the full amount of cold air from europe!!!this is the reason why we have ended up a bit boring on the gfs 06z between 168 and 192 hours!!!we either want a full wack of cold from europe or the pattern edged further east with the greenland wedge!!!!i personally think we gona end up with more of a scandi high in the end and worse come to worse the dreaded uk high which wont cut it for many of us at this time of the year with winter ticking down!!! Could still rescue it on this 06z mind you....once again after day 10!!!!!vicious cycle!!!!

Edited January 10, 2021 by sheikhy

[Battleground Snow]

The para does cut it off and should make for a better FI. going to be a while before we know which way this one will go.

 

[Tim Bland]

Bin the GFS and concentrate on the GFSp...it is more reliable after all .....plus I don’t like this run . GFSp more likely to deliver ...

[SLEETY]

At least we still have the frigid air diving down from the Arctic again,regular theme now, getting it to back West as far as the UK is another hard battle though!

[MKN]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The op gfs looks flat approaching day 8. But the development of that small low between the ridges which is now on its way into Europe could distort the next few days output  - how likely is that feature to do what it’s doing on this run? 
 

sadly, another run which is clearly unreliable in the medium term. given that we don’t have any confidence in this period, will be interesting to see how the cold surge is handled and whether we get any greeny height rise later in week 2 .  The detail irrelevant as the starting point for the interactions not going to be nearly right imo  ....

Medium term? Id say fairly near term as Its already a fair bit different to the 00z at just +96. Models are certainly struggling atm. 

[Notty]

GFS(P) quite consistent at T+168

06z

00z

[claret047]

1 hour ago, Snowmut said:

Although I think lengthy entrenched cold spell is doubtful, I do think we could see some quite memorable or even historic snow events in the not to distant future!

And lets face it Snow is the name of the game!

Lovely charts. Thanks for posting them. 

Perhaps you could tell novices like me what draws you to the conclusion that the cold spell if it arrives is likely to be of only a short duration.

I had always believed that once strong areas of high pressure and the accompanied very cold air in winter time they are very difficult to shift. I am old enough to recall the winter of 1962/3 and the Met Office kept calling an end to the bitter weather, but again and again they were wrong and the very cold conditions remained.

Many thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Notty said:

GFS(P) quite consistent at T+168

06z

00z

P at 180 definitely worth a watch (or did I just curse it...) 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Griff

[blizzard81]

If we just park the gfs to one side, what matters most today is avoiding a repeat of the ecm 00z op on tonight's 12z run. 

[northwestsnow]

6z is one of the most frustrating runs ever...

[Tim Bland]

Para is consistent by day 9 - 00z Vs 06z

[Griff]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

6z is one of the most frustrating runs ever...

So watch the //

[Battleground Snow]

Could be another epic para here. If the UK low shifts south again.

Until the ECM , Ukmo and para all cut that that low off in the reliable (72-96), we should remain cautious

 

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Cloud 10]

GFS (p) determined to build that greeny high,earlier timeframe be damned!

 

Fun model watching.

 

[Methuselah]

There are a lot of banana skins in the 06Z... A bit like letting a hungry chimp loose in a greengrocer's shop!

    

[Griff]

Obscene colours over Scandinavia