Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Battleground Snow]

Another great improvement in the mean.

Flatliners coming in early on the graphical form too

 

[Stu_London]

Loving those short ensembles - perhaps we don't have to count down from 384 and something will crop up a lot earlier. 

Would fit with the MO of SSWs

[KTtom]

No mention of the ECM, and I can see why, certainly hasn't got into the party mood this morning...even more frustrating when you put the 850's up!

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by KTtom

[carinthian]

17 hours ago, carinthian said:

Ok folks a bit of an update from the team over here. Looks like mid -week some severe cold to develop over Central Europe and especially to the NE in Scandi land. The feeling is that with-in the time span 96h-144t will now be  crucial as to where the British Isles is heading ( snow and freezing temps or mild and damp ). As early as Wednesday a leading snow edge front will try and move through but its progress likely to be slow. The snow computer has halted this close to Eastern Britain. So overall, a strong backing of the ECM run from this morning which has the intensifying cold to the NE winning out, maybe sooner rather than later during this coming week. The high pressure to the SW of The British Isles obviously being a big potential spoiler to this scenario but the view from over here is that the eastward Atlantic energy remains rather weak over the coming days. The models likely to continue to throw up more conundrums as rapid changes are now taking place high up in the turbulent atmosphere so they advise.

C

Re: above post. ECM has front grinding to a halt just to the east of the UK as early as this coming Thursday. Fragments into two small low pressure systems to the north and south of the front coming up against the cold block. Where do we go from here ?  The very cold air is  tantalising close  to the UK shore even as early as 96t . Can you lot tap in ?  Think its on a knife edge. More changes today. A great viewing in the offering. UK/GFS runs however, are more progressive in moving the front out of the British Isles.

C

 

[Nick F]

11 minutes ago, KTtom said:

No mention of the ECM, and I can see why, certainly hasn't got into the party mood this morning...even more frustrating when you put the 850's up!

 

It's not worth stoking worry over a day 8 chart, too much uncertainty past day 5 at the moment. Lots of swings between model runs at the moment. The 00z GFS PARA and GEFS mean at day 10 still keeps the party on track ...

[That ECM]

25 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

 

Usual day 10 caveats apply stuff?

Usual 10 day caveats. looking at this morning’s output, there is more than a signal for heights to build north. Where they land and what we get will be not known for a while yet.  GFS did ok didn’t it? 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Comment in quote box removed

[carinthian]

12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

It's not worth stoking worry over a day 8 chart, too much uncertainty past day 5 at the moment. Lots of swings between model runs at the moment. The 00z GFS PARA and GEFS mean at day 10 still keeps the party on track ...

To right, I think out to 96t not nailed yet. The eastward progress of that front even in doubt. As you say expect more swings and I think even in the shorter time span. All good viewing.

C

Edited January 10, 2021 by carinthian

[Griff]

Just read the last 2 pages, to be honest I'm surprised it's not 20 given the positivity this morning. Presumably most people are trying to catch up on sleep after a challenging start to 2021?

@Battleground Snow really appreciate your endeavours, and others of course.

Have to say I was expecting a set back or 2 on the road to some proper cold. Let's see what the 06z have to say, but in the mean time a round up of some 120, 144 and 180 hour charts could be helpful across all the models. 

I would expect ecm to fall in line with gem, so would appreciate anyone's thoughts there. 

Perhaps I need to apologise to my 4 year old, it seems waking up this morning was OK after all

Edited January 10, 2021 by Griff

[IDO]

The less said about the 0z runs the better, but the ecm mean indicates the ecm op went a different route:

mean> op>

In London, again after d8 the op is a statistical outlier, this time for pressure:

For me, a struggle to make any sense of the SSWE as portrayed by the models. I think reanalysis rather than analysis run by run will be more helpful as a learning tool but the journey is interesting to say the least!

[Weathizard]

Chaos in the ensembles

[V for Very Cold]

Think everyone is taking the morning off after a rollercoaster of a few days. Have to say I’ve been away for a couple of days just to get a rest. However, back into the fray with renewed vigour

so, where does FI exist atm?

 

 

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Re: above post. ECM has front grinding to a halt just to the east of the UK as early as this coming Thursday. Fragments into two small low pressure systems to the north and south of the front coming up against the cold block. Where do we go from here ?  The very cold air is  tantalising close  to the UK shore even as early as 96t . Can you lot tap in ?  Think its on a knife edge. More changes today. A great viewing in the offering. UK/GFS runs however, are more progressive in moving the front out of the British Isles.

C

 

ECM now develops some cold air into the British Isles next weekend with some fairly widespread snowfall across the east of England.

C

[Polar Maritime]

3 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

So, where does FI exist atm?

Day 4/5...

Edited January 10, 2021 by Polar Maritime

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

The para is truly special, drops a ton of snow at 252 and then the -20 line is heading for the east coast at 264

I'll have it at mine aye! GFS gone boring as hell in FI, still hope 18Z battles happen, then the crappy 00, nobody wants anticyclonic crap in quarantine

Edited January 10, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[V for Very Cold]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Day 4/5...

Thanks PM.... just wondering (from a novice) why you made that judgement?

 

tia

[Nick F]

00z EPS mean between T+72-240 looks fine ... mild air not really making inroads, the cold air very close over the north and east in the means, certainly signal for frigid cold over NW Russia to spread further W and SW across Scandinavia too. Flow generally from the N or NE past T+72 - perhaps E for a time days 5-6 - as signal for Scandi high to develop briefly

[Methuselah]

Nice to see the GFS flapping like a sheet in a gale, this morning -- and that one ensemble member really 'goes for it':

    

And, should the NH profiles be 'on the money', Bigfoot might be about to make an appearance:

    

    

 

[Polar Maritime]

1 minute ago, V for Very Cold said:

Thanks PM.... just wondering (from a novice) why you made that judgement?

 

tia

The uncertainty within the models beyond that timeframe.

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest plume for de Bilt.

[sebastiaan1973]

This is one of the most special charts I have ever seen. What a snowfest for the people around the North Sea.

[Anthony Burden]

Continuing the theme with the charts struggling to get a hold on Synoptics post 96hrs/120 hrs

Alot of chopping and changing,personally waiting for the Scandinavian high to show it’s face

then bingo.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

More ensembles breaching the -10 threshold now on the GFS overnight run around the 21st onwards.

One of them (which I like to call the trendsetter!) even touches -16! 

Momentum is building for a potentially very cold end to the month!

[sheikhy]

Just feel there could be more changes ever so slightly in the shorter time frame!!around wednesday thursday time maybe!!a pool of cold air builds and sits to the east of us around 120 and 144 hours and wont take too much effort to tap into!!ecm is very close!!!!front get to the east coast and pushes back west again!!

[Ice Day]

So looking through the overnight runs, are we still seeing some interest in the 19-21st January period?

GFS - 20th January.  That's a Yes

GFSP - 20th January.  That's a very big yes

GFS Control 20th January - another good chart

ECM - 20th January - on the face of it, not good but actually not far away from being more than decent.  However, it's someway away from the mean and as per some other posts this morning, is an outlier for the 19th and 20th January

 

GEM - 19th January.  Superb!

So the odds are that Europe is currently on course for some potentially severe winter weather from next weekend onwards, but the question of how impacted the UK will be is still some way away from being answered.  But as Ian Drury once said, 'Reasons to be Cheerful'.

[northwestsnow]

40 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z EPS mean between T+72-240 looks fine ... mild air not really making inroads, the cold air very close over the north and east in the means, certainly signal for frigid cold over NW Russia to spread further W and SW across Scandinavia too. Flow generally from the N or NE past T+72 - perhaps E for a time days 5-6 - as signal for Scandi high to develop briefly

Thanks Nick..

Its squeaky bum time from my POV..

Key timeframe 120-168..

Nervous times ahead

..