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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?


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Stopped looking at ECM tonight at 168. It’s one of those times, that no matter what is modelled before day 10, I knew that T+240 would show a Greenland block scenario.  And sure enough I just looked a

Ok folks a bit of an update from the team over here. Looks like mid -week some severe cold to develop over Central Europe and especially to the NE in Scandi land. The feeling is that with-in the time

Looking at the Euro4 im not convinced GFS is right even at +48! Note the N,lys over the far N of Scotland and Shetland islands. Ridge of high pressure extending further S in this model compa

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    GFSP not being mentioned tonight because it basically goes zonal.

    That said, based on all output and GEFS nobody can really predict at present beyond day 6 (even that is a stretch). The GEFS are all over the place by day 6.

     

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  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    using the mean for trends is probably at its least effective with so many variables out there. 

    I'd like to see some clustering of the long ensembles to spot a trend right this minute - but nothing doing at the moment. 

     

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  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Jason M said:

    GFSP not being mentioned tonight because it basically goes zonal.

    That said, based on all output and GEFS nobody can really predict at present beyond day 6 (even that is a stretch). The GEFS are all over the place by day 6.

     

    Parallel seems to have gone wrong as early as D6- clue: look at W Greenland

    image.thumb.png.227bdef2b2818ce66da973859f31a933.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    This is the theme.😄👍 just need to panic🤣 where the block sits now😩😩🤣

    8E79FF96-DBC4-4126-8D40-510120BCA3BE.png

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  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    For balance, the GFSP is absolutely abysmal tonight.  No Atlantic amplification whatsoever and to be fair, the 12z went a bit flat in FI as well.  Whilst it's pretty dreadful I really wouldn't be discounting anything at the moment.

    That said, the Control is looking pretty decent at 228

    image.thumb.png.f77885ed1967819ccfd4cf9e4224fd6f.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Parallel seems to have gone wrong as early as D6- clue: look at W Greenland

    image.thumb.png.227bdef2b2818ce66da973859f31a933.png

    It does feel unlikely, but given the chaos in the GEFS tonight I'd be reticent to bet the house on anything being wrong right now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    using the mean for trends is probably at its least effective with so many variables out there. 

    I'd like to see some clustering of the long ensembles to spot a trend right this minute - but nothing doing at the moment. 

     

    Didn’t you see the eps clusters that were posted on here ?  

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Add into the equation of greater downwelling than what the models are currently picking up on, and also SSW reinforcements coming into the equation in 8 to 10 days time I think it's safe to say there will be more cold pushed out into lower regions than currently being modeled. Personally I think were in for a very potent spell of cold that could potentially last right through February. Good signs as it stands. 🤞

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  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    Didn’t you see the eps clusters that were posted on here ?  

    I haven't seen them tonight to be honest. Fair play if they are picking a trend. Just a lot of white noise at the minute, particularly with the GFS - which is actually normal but has been amplified by the general model uncertainty. 

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  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    using the mean for trends is probably at its least effective with so many variables out there. 

    I'd like to see some clustering of the long ensembles to spot a trend right this minute - but nothing doing at the moment. 

     

    What would be your assessment of these? The mean is so strong because of these. Detail will come nearer to the time but the trend is clear imo.

    9CEEC489-C5C7-488F-A629-1184CA2A9630.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 hour ago, Griff said:

    144 gfs vs p... 

    I'm just trying to keep up, but these look like they'll have different evolutions. 

    gfsnh-0-144 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    (waiting for guaranteed egg on my face) 

    I wish I hadn't now... 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    Just now, That ECM said:

    What would be your assessment of these? The mean is so strong because of these. Detail will come nearer to the time but the trend is clear imo.

    9CEEC489-C5C7-488F-A629-1184CA2A9630.png

    Definitely a trend for a block moving towards Greenland - what happens next is probably key - collapse, go west or topple. 

    There is big potential for some quite severe winter fayre. If it does occur, longevity, just how severe and whether it is a nationwide event is Mystic Meg stuff at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    At this point I'm not quite sure what can stop that big, densely cold area of Siberian air hurtling SW. There's barely any W'ly momentum in the system...

    Looks that way and I hope you are right but you have been around long enough to know that the UK usually finds a way to dodge the cold. 

    Expectations of a cold spell, even when they become modelled, always have to be tempered with that reality.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
    18 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    GFSP not being mentioned tonight because it basically goes zonal.

    That said, based on all output and GEFS nobody can really predict at present beyond day 6 (even that is a stretch). The GEFS are all over the place by day 6.

     

    Everbody here knows we could go zonal even with a SSW. Zonal is the norm for our little island in the atlantic. Models struggle to get to grips with SSW's. Why should members comment on a run likely to be wrong showing zonal ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    I'm getting all flustered, its either the output, or the male menopause... They are seriously shaping up, and I've only viewed a dozen of them.. 

    gens-1-0-264.png

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    gens-5-0-264.png

    gens-10-1-264.png

    gens-11-0-276.png

    gens-13-1-264.png

    200-4.gif

    Pert 10 is an absolute beaut

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Op not representative of the suite in FI

     

    image.png

    Edited by LRD
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  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    4 minutes ago, LRD said:

    Op not representative of the suite in FI

     

    image.png

    Good to see a few more breaching the -10C mark 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    48 minutes ago, Welsh_Weather said:

    Based on every operational in the reliable timeframe. I think it’s more down to you to prove that your opinion is correct. Yes there are ensemble members pointing at cold and plenty of operational’s showing potential in FI but apart from potential I’ve yet to see anything concrete showing ‘real cold’ making its way to the UK at some point.  

    This seems to be what the long range forecasts namely the BBC monthly outlook and perhaps to a lesser degree the Metoffice are hinting at, albeit with low confidence, so all to play for IMO.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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