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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Paceyboy Explorer

Paceyboy

Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
Posted

The -40c 850s shown in Northern Siberia on the 18z GFS and their potential journey towards is fascinating, exciting but also a scary prospect.

Let's face it, even if that airmass propelled itself toward us it would inevitably be moderated but if it was sort of -20c 850s for any period of time around 5 days or longer, this country would be in serious trouble. 

I remember looking forward to the 2018 BFTE and when it came my boiler kept cutting out due to condensate pipe freezing and eventually the heating broke completely as a valve went in the CH system. Once this happened I was praying that the weather would warm up and go above freezing as my house was being kept above 10c by patio heaters etc and it was unbearably cold with the easterley near gale howling through our dog flap, that ironically faces east! 

If a more severe, prolonged version occurred this year, especially in the main height of winter it would be incredible/ epic but would feel for people in peril. In these situations the cold can gain the upper hand and deliver such an impact on our normal routines and life, i.e. no thaw, heavy snows, burst pipes, unbearable windchill. The likes of which we never normally see.

Having said that it would assist lockdown, reduce traffic and keep people inside.

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heath Explorer

heath

Posted
  • Location: North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl
  • Location: North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl
Posted
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Winter '79 run. Somewhere would get buried, dependent where boundary set up.

Snow and Ruhr soot dropping on the north of England. Just like 79.

image.thumb.png.8ed008d076d321530d2e7bd7873d95a0.png

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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

The -40c 850s shown in Northern Siberia on the 18z GFS and their potential journey towards is fascinating, exciting but also a scary prospect.

Let's face it, even if that airmass propelled itself toward us it would inevitably be moderated but if it was sort of -20c 850s for any period of time around 5 days or longer, this country would be in serious trouble. 

I remember looking forward to the 2018 BFTE and when it came my boiler kept cutting out due to condensate pipe freezing and eventually the heating broke completely as a valve went in the CH system. Once this happened I was praying that the weather would warm up and go above freezing as my house was being kept above 10c by patio heaters etc and it was unbearably cold with the easterley near gale howling through our dog flap, that ironically faces east! 

If a more severe, prolonged version occurred this year, especially in the main height of winter it would be incredible/ epic but would feel for people in peril. In these situations the cold can gain the upper hand and deliver such an impact on our normal routines and life, i.e. no thaw, heavy snows, burst pipes, unbearable windchill. The likes of which we never normally see.

Having said that it would assist lockdown, reduce traffic and keep people inside.

 

4 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

The -40c 850s shown in Northern Siberia on the 18z GFS and their potential journey towards is fascinating, exciting but also a scary prospect.

Let's face it, even if that airmass propelled itself toward us it would inevitably be moderated but if it was sort of -20c 850s for any period of time around 5 days or longer, this country would be in serious trouble. 

I remember looking forward to the 2018 BFTE and when it came my boiler kept cutting out due to condensate pipe freezing and eventually the heating broke completely as a valve went in the CH system. Once this happened I was praying that the weather would warm up and go above freezing as my house was being kept above 10c by patio heaters etc and it was unbearably cold with the easterley near gale howling through our dog flap, that ironically faces east! 

If a more severe, prolonged version occurred this year, especially in the main height of winter it would be incredible/ epic but would feel for people in peril. In these situations the cold can gain the upper hand and deliver such an impact on our normal routines and life, i.e. no thaw, heavy snows, burst pipes, unbearable windchill. The likes of which we never normally see.

Having said that it would assist lockdown, reduce traffic and keep people inside.

Not to mention the difficulty in distribution of vital vaccines across the country. 

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heath Explorer

heath

Posted
  • Location: North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl
  • Location: North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Northern hemisphere view easterlys   right across the Atlantic

13E59623-5336-48BB-A18B-5E6C0F21679D.png

From the Kazakh Mongolian border to Cape Cod 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS 18z T318, wonder where the ejaculate is going from the purple member, enough to give me porphyrophobia.  

54BE9A96-0A5D-48B7-92E6-637586CF2190.thumb.png.69a15581bc46f8d19946057c8b088676.png

Wrong place, this block, but it is a long long way away in time, and there is every chance that any block will land better for us, what to take now, is such blocks are showing up at all.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)

Day 110 ....what comes from the above ‘member’ is the only white stuff flying around on these runs

00F76911-453B-4179-8FB4-A7678FF15BE8.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Paceyboy Explorer

Paceyboy

Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
Posted
Just now, Bartlett High said:

 

Not to mention the difficulty in distribution of vital vaccines across the country. 

Of course. This is an added vital point. Trouble is as well, would people venture out to get it? Lets hope so. Its the UK, maybe we would be spared more than a 10 day freeze but who knows

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

Nearly on that run and gfs p going similar after being a bit messier early on in the run but that theme still remaining of that deep cold to the NE gradually heading SW we are still a long way off worrying about any specifics of positions of lows that might drag that air in, I’m still looking to see that movement of it become the trend through the next week image.thumb.gif.02f6013303ce8b3975d78cb4b5c18ee4.gif 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
11 minutes ago, Howie said:

I really hope the Iberian high gets modeled weaker soon as it's the real spoiler right now 

Yes, that Iberian high just doesn't seem to want to budge!  Obviously, that's not to say it won't of course!

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, heath said:

From the Kazakh Mongolian border to Cape Cod 

Now, if that Atlantic low could dive south east towards Biscay . . .

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GSP Enthusiast

GSP

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
Posted
5 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

The -40c 850s shown in Northern Siberia on the 18z GFS and their potential journey towards is fascinating, exciting but also a scary prospect.

Let's face it, even if that airmass propelled itself toward us it would inevitably be moderated but if it was sort of -20c 850s for any period of time around 5 days or longer, this country would be in serious trouble. 

I remember looking forward to the 2018 BFTE and when it came my boiler kept cutting out due to condensate pipe freezing and eventually the heating broke completely as a valve went in the CH system. Once this happened I was praying that the weather would warm up and go above freezing as my house was being kept above 10c by patio heaters etc and it was unbearably cold with the easterley near gale howling through our dog flap, that ironically faces east! 

If a more severe, prolonged version occurred this year, especially in the main height of winter it would be incredible/ epic but would feel for people in peril. In these situations the cold can gain the upper hand and deliver such an impact on our normal routines and life, i.e. no thaw, heavy snows, burst pipes, unbearable windchill. The likes of which we never normally see.

Having said that it would assist lockdown, reduce traffic and keep people inside.

Yes, it has to be a careful what you wish for.

Makes you wonder how many people would be caught out/affected by something they haven’t encountered before by the extreme cold possible shown on some charts f it was to arrive here in some form.

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

 

Not to mention the difficulty in distribution of vital vaccines across the country. 

I'm sure we'd cope. But the Govt will probably blame the weather to cover their uselessness if they can

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Proof, if proof were needed, the chaos that SSW's produce in the NWP's.  GFS and GFSP are showing some really extreme charts that just won't verify come the day.  The trend, however, is clear.  The PV moving away from Canada then starts to filter into Scandi/Europe.  We just need some decent luck for once to put ourselves in the bullseye.

 image.thumb.png.d70482fb9b377ba79089fd955390786a.png image.thumb.png.cceda072153b7fab4eea6c51b9b9cc12.png

It feels like we're really on the cusp here.  No doubt the 0z's will have a more negative view on things though!!!! (extra exclamation marks for @sheikhy)

 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Only 378hrs away..what could possibly go wrong ??‍♂️

C7D062D7-0791-43C0-9746-5FDDC0D3D59F.png

 

2BF17AE1-FF8F-47F7-B31B-194D8FC75F73.png

0B5BD393-C003-49A4-941B-E203F9283D37.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z T318, wonder where the ejaculate is going from the purple member, enough to give me porphyrophobia.  

54BE9A96-0A5D-48B7-92E6-637586CF2190.thumb.png.69a15581bc46f8d19946057c8b088676.png

Wrong place, this block, but it is a long long way away in time, and there is every chance that any block will land better for us, what to take now, is such blocks are showing up at all.

That is so close to being a 31 Dec 1978 chart. So close

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

Today has been a good lesson that members shouldn't get too hung up over individual runs when FI is so close. There is no support for anything much post 200 hrs 

Minus 20C upper over Western Russia and north eastern Europe are also relatively common occurrences. Usually every year at some point and can hang around on occasions. 

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, XtremeUKWeather said:

image.thumb.png.5447afd41abb71a6e1e3995bf5dc4403.pngMean 18z

Yes, i think we need to be guided by the mean charts at the moment, but only to a point. In really uncertain times (like now) the higher resolution of the op runs will tell - so be guided by the means, but if the op runs go for something different that is supported by background signals, I’d follow that...

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Snow cover all around the NH on our latitude-

image.thumb.png.68ade8fb067a04e4b334c38fb0cfdd79.png

Not a bad run at all. Shift that initial reverse zonality around days 10-11+ 500 miles S and bingo!

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Welsh_Weather Apprentice

Welsh_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Aberdare, Mid-Glamorgan. 202 ASL
  • Location: Aberdare, Mid-Glamorgan. 202 ASL
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Updated_Weather said:

Based on what?

can’t just say that without backing it up?

imo real cold will make its way to the UK at some point. 

Based on every operational in the reliable timeframe. I think it’s more down to you to prove that your opinion is correct. Yes there are ensemble members pointing at cold and plenty of operational’s showing potential in FI but apart from potential I’ve yet to see anything concrete showing ‘real cold’ making its way to the UK at some point.  

Edited by Welsh_Weather
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Uncertainty Accomplished

Uncertainty

Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
Posted

image.thumb.png.62959cb9d51b6ddbfd7d4f0c4849a0b3.png

Mean is more amplified and closer to the ECM. Wonder if this set will sustain some of the amplification...

Still a few days to go till UKMO range but good trends this eve...

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