Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[sheikhy]

Amazing differences all over the place on the gfs 18z!!!

[Mike Poole]

The GFS // looking similar to ECM evolution T126, but different to GFS:

[TSNWK]

So unusual to not see any dark blues or purpules to our north and north west... quiet a big change from previous run with plenty more heights across to the north..

[feb1991blizzard]

Very messy but here she comes again, she's gonna have a go!

[adrianh]

Very messy GFS. Lows and wedges of high pressure all over the place. Hard to tell what's going to happen beyond a few days in advance

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Pressure-wise, a chart that looks more like mid-Spring than mid-Winter - remarkable in its own right

Yes, a very good point, it is winter but the main driver for our weather, the trop vortex, is non-existent, at least anywhere near us. I think it might affect us later though....from the east...

[Griff]

144 gfs vs p... 

I'm just trying to keep up, but these look like they'll have different evolutions. 

(waiting for guaranteed egg on my face) 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Griff

[Eskimo]

Only one way this can go now - lows forced southward, opening the doors for the cold from the NE. 

(I touched wood as to not jinx it)


 

[Mike Poole]

Breaking news, GFS goes for the full monty, T 192:

I think it is unlikely that the purple blob will avoid us from there.  Do you know there’s a word for fear of purple?  It came up in the covid thread, it is prophyrophobia, if you are a sufferer don’t look at a Meteociel chart anytime soon...

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Only one way this can go now - lows forced southward, opening the doors for the cold from the NE. 

(I touched wood as to not jinx it)


 

Be great if doesn't go the dreaded west based and keeps an Atlantic omega... Until someone tells me why I'm wrong. 

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Only one way this can go now - lows forced southward, opening the doors for the cold from the NE. 

(I touched wood as to not jinx it)


 

Or more likely the Atlantic low will spin up and move north westwards causing a west based NAO. 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Johnp

[Battleground Snow]

Para having a harder time with the cut off low. Don't think it's going to do it. The low near the UK not really helpful either.

 

 

[Mike Poole]

Holy Smoley, T234 pub run , it’s only gone and done it - arctic high link up:

Edited January 9, 2021 by Mike Poole

[XtremeUKWeather]

PV is shredded 

[bradymk]

The frames below are from each of the GFS runs today, for the same date - next Sunday. 

As you go from the 00z run through to the 18z, on each run the heights have got higher to our north and north west and the Arctic high has become much more visible and influential on each run.

As to be expected of course given what’s happening, but just to show how much is changing run to run with the SSW influence becoming more obvious each time, even if it isn’t directly affecting us yet.

 00z

06z

12z

18z

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Holy Smoley, T228 pub run , it’s only gone and done it - arctic high link up:

Uppers not great for UK, academic at this stage I know... Look at the -40 pool to the far north east tho!

 

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Holy Smoley, T228 pub run , it’s only gone and done it - arctic high link up:

That's the 12z?

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Holy Smoley, T228 pub run , it’s only gone and done it - arctic high link up:

Hang on Mike, that's the 12z 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

That's the 12z?

Yes, thanks and have corrected my post.  Thanks @Ice Day too.

Edited January 9, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Ice Day]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes, thanks and have corrected my post.

And you're right, it's superb 

[Griff]

Great for Shetland? 

I'm confused 

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Great for Shetland? 

I'm confused 

The Iberian high is way stronger on this run and stops the cold air descending south I think

Edited January 9, 2021 by Howie
Misspelling

[Mike Poole]

You know that thing that penguins do with their eggs?  GFS T258:

And what follows...

[sheikhy]

Ah well as good as the synoptics look over to the 00z runs!warming causing all sorts of havoc with the models!nuff said!!!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What a run and trend it’s becoming. The initial early cold to the east keeps on gradually getting shunted closer in the mid time frames. 

After that, anyone else getting that dauntingly exciting feeling watching that super cold pool over Siberia buzzsawing its way Westwards towards scandi!? This is madness.