Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[sebastiaan1973]

8 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

Where can we see this

Here.

Model charts for England (Temperature, 850hPa) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

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ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 01/21/2021, 01:00pm of parameter "Temperature, 850hPa", model chart for map "England"

you can even select county

 

[Penrith Snow]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow I’ve gotta admit I was feeling a bit down on today’s output , just feels like we’re chasing shadows lol . BUT then the ECM ens and mean come out and it’s really good . Please for the love of  god give us cold snow seeking netweather nutters are winter . Some really cold ens appearing now some down to  -9 850s .

You can’t moan at that chart for London 80% of days are cold with a long cooling trend finishing with a mean of -7c, not to be sniffed at.

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest plume for De Bilt.

[NewEra21]

I just think people are getting too hung up over the details at the moment, people looking for the longevity, will the ridge topple etc etc.

Charts right now might not look wonderful and of course they could get a whole lot worse, but we have signs of Atlantic ridging and cold dropping into Scandi and Europe. For me that's enough for now, we'll just have to see how it plays out in the days ahead. Looking for too much detail right now and you'll just end up disappointed, but that's just my opinion.

[sebastiaan1973]

The control is extreme! Look at these 850 hPa temperatures.

 

Model charts for Europe (Temperature, 850hPa) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

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ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 01/22/2021, 07:00am of parameter "Temperature, 850hPa", model chart for map "Europe"

 

[northwestsnow]

The mean graph can be an exellent tool.

The trend day 7 onwards is unmistakable.

Some are quicker than others but they are pretty much all dropping troughing towards the UK from Scandy.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It gets down to -15.3 as it happens!

-11C Uppers will do me fine, feb... Why waste all that money, on extra heating bills, when maxes of -1C will still deliver the goods, just as well?!

[Jason H]

5 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest plume for De Bilt.

Those look promising.

[Ben Sainsbury]

I do get the impression that this potential upcoming cold spell is going to be very different of that from the last/current one. The upcoming spell looks to alternate between very cold & cool to mild spells associated with low-pressure systems sliding across Southern UK and this seems to be a recurring theme with the majority of the NWP output. This leads to potential big snow events which imo are much more exciting than the stale cold that we've had as of late.

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It gets down to -15.3 as it happens!

London or de bilt ?

[ICE COLD]

13 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

The control is extreme! Look at these 850 hPa temperatures.

 

Model charts for Europe (Temperature, 850hPa) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

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ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 01/22/2021, 07:00am of parameter "Temperature, 850hPa", model chart for map "Europe"

 

Will them temperatures be ok for your ice skating? . That control run is bonkers . 

Edited January 9, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Singularity]

Worth considering just how much hasn't worked out well within the next 10 days in todays deterministic runs from ECM and GFS. Slider lows taking unfortunate paths and even a low becoming stuck due north of us on the 12z ECM, which really doesn't help with moving the very cold air toward and across the UK.

Judging by the ensembles, we may well have been seeing some of the most 'difficult' options. Best hope, then, that this is merely by chance, as opposed to the det. runs resolving the situation more effectively. For what it's worth, the situation is so complicated and downright unusual (in terms of combination of factors in play) that I'd be surprised if they were able to gain that much of an edge.

I do wonder if ECM could be onto something with the lack of Greenland height rises. After all, the (potential... still not nailed down!) vortex split location could feasibly support a blocking high over Scandinavia instead.

[sebastiaan1973]

8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Will then temperatures be ok for your ice skating? . That control run is bonkers . 

More than enough. I really wish the cold can come to both of us. We need it You guys are just so desperate winter lovers like me. The control shows 30cm of ice in the NO of the Netherlands.

Edited January 9, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

London or de bilt ?

London on the 850's graph on that french one - here is the actual chart btw in all its glory.

 

 

@General Cluster  but the lower the uppers, the better the convection, plus normal cold doesn't cut it for me, it has to be bonkers cold and bonkers snow totals.

Edited January 9, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Bricriu]

10 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I do get the impression that this potential upcoming cold spell is going to be very different of that from the last/current one. The upcoming spell looks to alternate between very cold & cool to mild spells associated with low-pressure systems sliding across Southern UK and this seems to be a recurring theme with the majority of the NWP output. This leads to potential big snow events which imo are much more exciting than the stale cold that we've had as of late.

I am getting this feeling too. It would chime with the UK Met Office thinking too. It could lead to ecstasy for some and heartache for others. I'm not  confident we will see a long cold spell, but more an ebbing and flowing situation. Personally i could live with this, if we got a serious dumping of snow before a milder turn.

[Uncertainty]

Moving away from the medium range shenanigans for a  moment...

The narrative I have been pushing all winter, e.g. the December seasonal models on trial... has its next chapter today:

Our next suspect, the CMCC...

Here’s the latest, if you’re feeling a tad blue, this ones for you!

The Dec update was practically the same, except, er, the colours in the Atlantic and Arctic were swapped

Thats CMCC, ECM, Meteo-France, CFS (For Jan), DWD and CANSIPS, all flipped from a moderate +NAM to a hardcore -NAM. Conclusion: They’ve seen the SSW and they see a major downwelling -NAM .

Caveat: A similar phenomena happened in Jan 2019 and the Azores ridge completely blunted the signal - so the above is of course not a given. After all, although they *might* have been wrong in December, who knows, they might be wrong about being wrong!

Still, the first 10 days of Jan have gone to the new plan quite well so far, how about the latest day 10 anomalies?

A pretty good match!

It was only really the UKMO that bought us an unlikely quick ticket to cold, yes the uppers were ‘oven ready’ in the continent but it was always a punt for anything before the 19th. The scenario we’ve been tracking remains the ridge heading north day 9 and this hasn’t changed, as I pointed out yesterday, this has been hinted at on the GFS and particularly the para for nearly a week now. They nailed the Bella / ridge scenario and that got us two weeks of cold weather. Given the seasonals and the SSW, there is every reason to think that they’ve got this one too. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

5 of them. All have some degree of Greenland blocking about them, I like, and also favour in terms of probability now, the 5th cluster - I think this is where we are heading (see post earlier re ECM mean T240).  We will see...

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

London on the 850's graph on that french one - here is the actual chart btw in all its glory.

 

 

@General Cluster  but the lower the uppers, the better the convection, plus normal cold doesn't cut it for me, it has to be bonkers cold and bonkers snow totals.

The London graph you posted was T2Maxes .....the ones you keep referencing are uppers ! 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240:

5 of them. All have some degree of Greenland blocking about them, I like, and also favour in terms of probability now, the 5th cluster - I think this is where we are heading (see post earlier re ECM mean T240).  We will see...

The fifth cluster is the control cluster  .....

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The London graph you posted was T2Maxes .....the ones you keep referencing are uppers ! 

Sorry Nick - crossed wires, was just pedantically perhaps but also joyously pointing out that the -15c you said was actually 0.3 lower than the 15.3c!!

[northwestsnow]

Those clusters look very good.

[Bricriu]

4 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Moving away from the medium range shenanigans for a  moment...

The narrative I have been pushing all winter, e.g. the December seasonal models on trial... has its next chapter today:

Our next suspect, the CMCC...

Here’s the latest, if you’re feeling a tad blue, this ones for you!

The Dec update was practically the same, except, er, the colours in the Atlantic and Arctic were swapped

Thats CMCC, ECM, Meteo-France, CFS (For Jan), DWD and CANSIPS, all flipped from a moderate +NAM to a hardcore -NAM. Conclusion: They’ve seen the SSW and they see a major downwelling -NAM .

Caveat: A similar phenomena happened in Jan 2019 and the Azores ridge completely blunted the signal - so the above is of course not a given. After all, although they *might* have been wrong in December, who knows, they might be wrong about being wrong!

Still, the first 10 days of Jan have gone to the new plan quite well so far, how about the latest day 10 anomalies?

A pretty good match!

It was only really the UKMO that bought us an unlikely quick ticket to cold, yes the uppers were ‘oven ready’ in the continent but it was always a punt for anything before the 19th. The scenario we’ve been tracking remains the ridge heading north day 9 and this hasn’t changed, as I pointed out yesterday, this has been hinted at on the GFS and particularly the para for nearly a week now. They nailed the Bella / ridge scenario and that got us two weeks of cold weather. Given the seasonals and the SSW, there is every reason to think that they’ve got this one too. 

The only problem is the GFS ends the cold spell quickly. Given, as you say, it  has done well up to this point, we can't ignore the possibility that the latest runs are correct, as oppose to it just displaying the old GFS zonal bias in a complicated setup.

[LRD]

56 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Any support for it? 

Yeah, it's got support from me!!  There's only one ECM control run, ECM control run, there's only one ECM control run...

[SnowSalah]

I’m due to move back to Barcelona office on the 19th, if I was there at the minute I could have travelled to Madrid for some record snowfalls . Judging by the ECM mean tonight I may have to delay my return as I could stand missing out on two major snow events. The real cold (if it ever shows it’s face) looks likely to come round 20th.. allowing for a few blips!! Let’s keep the fingers, toes and wives crossed that the trend keeps going  

[Day_9]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

I do hope that @Steve Murr's somewhat less than positive post, above, doesn't lead to a mass consumption of Kool-Aid... I mean, come on -- one post by one person -- and the whole of NW is on Suicide Watch!

Wasn’t winter declared over in the first week of December?

 

anyhow, for what it’s worth....I don’t know much about meteorology but I do know how to spot trends in data and they are all only going in one direction.  As we get closer to an uptick in mild it gets shortened, the effects of an ssw also always seem to play havoc but they are sniffing it out and the trend is only down