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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)

A fairly decent day 10 chart but it looks like the ridge will topple again on this run unfortunately. Hopefully that’ll change tomorrow.

7A04AB0F-127A-491E-A21A-3B6196E48865.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)

Lets hope the gem is leading the way,that had the coldest uppers ,and they were doing their best to get towards us,,the big three have all been disappointing today,trending the wrong way.

Day TEN looking good..giphy.gif

So frustrating trying to get deep-cold into uk

Edited by SLEETY
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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted

I have a feeling, and this may be bold, that all models are currently wrong. Feel free to relate back to this in the days ahead! 
 

The SSW events have created absolute havoc for these models, even the UKMO is struggling to get temps right t+6 hours today. 
 

Be optimistic guys, I believe the chance hasn’t faded yet. Onto the pub run! 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Models today looking ok for. 3 -4 day cold spell with perhaps some snow in 10 days time. What’s disappointing for me is that there has been the potential for something more sustained / significant. I guess with the 3rd warming in the strat there is a chance  of something more substantial later on, but by then the clock is ticking. That’s why I’m hoping things revert back tomorrow

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)

Where has the Arctic high gone at 240?

Seems a bit odd after 168 this run, happy up until that point... It was always going to be tough to squeeze an easterly out downstream in such a short timescale

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, stratty said:

............not expecting anything before this, are we?

No, fully agree, I’m expecting something cold about 20th January, maybe a couple of days later.  And it will be as a result of the SSW - which kind of defines the timescale, because since it only happened on the 5th, 2 weeks is pretty much the minimum for a response in the trop.  

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daz_4 Community Regular

daz_4

Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Might just get there by day 10 but as Steve said, not the greatest of days ...

Hoping for a better day tomorrow...

Well still better than what Para produced this evening after 144h. 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

Well, I was right, and wrong.

Right in that we never made it to Greeny, but the high got far enough North to ridge towards Scandy.

I could live with a Scandy high!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

ECM is good at, guess when (...drum roll...) 

Yes 10 days...

image.thumb.png.c0082f9a7a7ba05001e97bd7e90e8cf2.png

10 days has been spectacular most of this winter. Exhausting is this!!

 

Edited by LRD
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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Not a bad day 10 chart again but I’m not going to claim to be a fan of this run as it just looks like another toppler. Hopefully that’ll change tomorrow.

7A04AB0F-127A-491E-A21A-3B6196E48865.png

I reckon that'd topple, yes. But into Scandinavia. Not that it will look like that at Day 10 of course but, in theory, I think that's what would happen

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

I do hope that @Steve Murr's somewhat less than positive post, above, doesn't lead to a mass consumption of Kool-Aid... I mean, come on -- one post by one person -- and the whole of NW is on Suicide Watch!

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sebastiaan1973 Experienced

sebastiaan1973

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
Posted

There is so much variation.

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, I was right, and wrong.

Right in that we never made it to Greeny, but the high got far enough North to ridge towards Scandy.

I could live with a Scandy high!!

Me too, lots of cold air in eastern part of Europe. I saw temperatures dropping to minus 25. http://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=europe&chart=2mtemp,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=222&plottype=10&lat=52.761&lon=19.483&skewtstep=0

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, I was right, and wrong.

Right in that we never made it to Greeny, but the high got far enough North to ridge towards Scandy.

I could live with a Scandy high!!

Yes seemed to be heading in one direction then revert back to previous form, unless likewise I was projecting my preferred outcome?

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Jason H Enthusiast

Jason H

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I do hope that @Steve Murr's somewhat less than positive post, above, doesn't lead to a mass consumption of Kool-Aid... I mean, come on -- one post by one person -- and the whole of NW is on Suicide Watch!

Are we/they? It's only one run. I can't emphasise that anything beyond day 5 should be treated with the utmost caution. Such inter-run variability and volatility at the moment. Awaits further runs with interest.

Edited by Jason H
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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, LRD said:

I reckon that'd topple, yes. But into Scandinavia. Not that it will look like that at Day 10 of course but, in theory, I think that's what would happen

Yes that’s definitely a possibility. Ideally you’d want the ridge further north though but that’s just my personal preference.

Edited by Frosty Winter
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

Manage your expectations folks and you’ll be less disappointed. I remember when we were looking at those great looking charts before Christmas - and saying to myself that I was expecting no snow. I’m still waiting for my first flake!

I’m hopeful of deep cold in the final third of January. But as usual some people are thinking it’s far more likely than it actually is.

 

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

If ecm day 10 charts verified,we would all be buried in the Snow  by now.

Poor run TBH

 

I agree. Tedious that the really good stuff is modelled tantalisingly out of reach all the while

Having said that it does seem that all roads are leading to some kind of cold. Whether it's via Scandi heights, Greenland heights, a long road or a shorter road. Even in the worst runs cold does end up appearing. So there are positives. But patience is thinning with me and I sense it's thinning with a lot of folk on here. Especially with those who live in SE and Eastern areas. Understandably so too

Edited by LRD
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, Jason H said:

Are we/they? It's only one run. I can't emphasise that anything beyond day 5 should be treated with the utmost caution. Such inter-run variability and volatility at the moment. Awaits further runs with interest.

Indeed! More runs needed?

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

JMA similar to UKMO at T120, here:

C1E54A02-75D2-4C8F-89FC-A0C666E36D78.thumb.gif.2736db1a73aeda2e36000024ffa628e1.gifF33782AE-B7B0-46B3-8C5A-5150EAEA0D09.thumb.gif.3f5e0375ae441b4a1ced23a0b7512a4c.gif

So let’s see where that goes...T192:

E613DEE5-1300-4444-8530-B252228CE70C.thumb.gif.e35a5a0329dc2b321fc7c1dd68861372.gif

Really sharp ridge into Greenland, stick around to 11pm to see the rest of the run!!  But my money is on this sort of evolution at the moment, I think ECM went a bit wrong.  But still all roads seem to lead to cold, it is a question of how cold...

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

If ever an emoji that depicts a Pear with breasts  laying in a pram throwing out its toys is needed!

Just by what the Met said after their 10 day outlook the other day- SSWs don't always favour cold for UK and that coupled with La Nina driven second half of winter, to me doesn't sound that good for a decent cold spell!. nobody loves snow and cold more than me but there seems to be a lot of turd polishing going on!

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Jason H Enthusiast

Jason H

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Indeed! More runs needed?

. Drat. I thought I'd got away with it.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

The 20th has been the date of interest for days and days, not sure what people are expecting before then?

ECM looks bang on date wise- 

image.thumb.png.97ef016187fc291de39fa11005535dd8.png

Look at the amplification upstream and secondary ridge off the ESB. Only one way that's heading (hint: not mild)

Edited by CreweCold
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