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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?


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Stopped looking at ECM tonight at 168. It’s one of those times, that no matter what is modelled before day 10, I knew that T+240 would show a Greenland block scenario.  And sure enough I just looked a

Ok folks a bit of an update from the team over here. Looks like mid -week some severe cold to develop over Central Europe and especially to the NE in Scandi land. The feeling is that with-in the time

Looking at the Euro4 im not convinced GFS is right even at +48! Note the N,lys over the far N of Scotland and Shetland islands. Ridge of high pressure extending further S in this model compa

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

     Sensational gem! showing the black hole,its been a while,coldest air over Ne scandi for years,trying to get here it looks like,not marginal,even if your on the East coast,🙄be ice-floes in their ,if that air makes it🥶

    Why?...it's not showing that degree of cold...most of the brutal stuff is still holed in Scandinavia. You know this chart has little degree of verifying?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Why?...it's not showing that degree of cold...most of the brutal stuff is still holed in Scandinavia. You know this chart has little degree of verifying?

    To be fair that could be said of most +180 hour charts, but hey we're all still here 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    I'm not sharing the excitement with others - what am I missing?

    I'm looking for a long lasting cold spell, but GFS seems keen on a good northerly followed by a west based -ve NAO then Atlantic domination. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Why?...it's not showing that degree of cold...most of the brutal stuff is still holed in Scandinavia. You know this chart has little degree of verifying?

    Its more that we are seeing that sort of brutal cold in Europe,havent seen it like that for years,if we get that over here,then watchout where you live on east coast.!!

     

     

    GFS P doing the same now..

    Edited by SLEETY
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  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    I'm not sharing the excitement with others - what am I missing?

    I'm looking for a long lasting cold spell, but GFS seems keen on a good northerly followed by a west based -ve NAO then Atlantic domination. 

    I think it's more we're now seeing the models picking up on the possible cold, and once they do things can upgrade quickly over the coming days and weeks!

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  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
    6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    I'm not sharing the excitement with others - what am I missing?

    I'm looking for a long lasting cold spell, but GFS seems keen on a good northerly followed by a west based -ve NAO then Atlantic domination. 

    It's one operational run. The signs are there that a cold pattern is emerging in the last third of the month. There is no long lasting cold spell currently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    20 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Couldn’t of drawn the m4 better if it had tried. 😩😩🤣

    ABE0DD31-7AEF-4895-AFC5-1432EBDEC755.png

    I presume that is GFS - it is simply that it has a row of grid points along the M4 corridor, so if the snow line is even anywhere near, that is where it will show on the charts.  We need the higher resolution models nearer the time to give a more meaningful picture.  

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  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    I'm not sharing the excitement with others - what am I missing?

    I'm looking for a long lasting cold spell, but GFS seems keen on a good northerly followed by a west based -ve NAO then Atlantic domination. 

    Deep FI John?  Let’s see if we get the deep cold plunge and let’s see if it shifts that quickly.  It’s great model watching and educationally guessing etc 

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    7 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    I think it's more we're now seeing the models picking up on the possible cold, and once they do things can upgrade quickly over the coming days and weeks!

    Conversely they could also downgrade especially for southern parts!

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  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I presume that is GFS - it is simply that it has a row of grid points along the M4 corridor, so if the snow line is even anywhere near, that is where it will show on the charts.  We need the higher resolution models nearer the time to give a more meaningful picture.  

    Yes gfs and tongue in cheek. I’ll worry if it gets to T72👍

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  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Conversely they could also downgrade especially for southern parts!

    thats why it's called model watching

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk
    9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    I'm not sharing the excitement with others - what am I missing?

     

    Nothing unless you like cold rain or your a hobnail mountain goat. I think there could be a lot of disappointment if People are waiting for a lengthy cold spell.

    image.thumb.png.431d1bbc619ecb2d90f85200b3229739.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Conversely they could also downgrade especially for southern parts!

    Precisely, but that's just how it goes. The most encouraging thing is, is that we're now seeing cold modelled across multiple models. 

    Whether we strike lucky who knows, but we've definitely got a ticket! 

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    7 minutes ago, snowking said:

    Yeah if anyone is looking for the exact synoptic pattern 10 days out you’re going to be disappointed.

    Keep on following the overall longwave themes:

    Heights rising to our NW

    Asian vortex segment retrogressing into Scandinavia (and beyond....)

    Big artic high (which is always poorly modelled beyond a few days)

    Continued warming episodes in the stratosphere

     

    For as long as the models continue to show these themes, we should all be happy. That’s as much as we can ask for right now.

    But surely if you're talking about themes, you also have to mention the theme of the Greenland high scooting quickly westwards a couple of days after forming?

    I'm not trying to cause an uproar, but that's my concern. 

    Edited by Johnp
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  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    3 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    Nothing unless you like cold rain or your a hobnail mountain goat. I think there could be a lot of disappointment if People are waiting for a lengthy cold spell.

    image.thumb.png.431d1bbc619ecb2d90f85200b3229739.png

    BS

    presented by GFS known BIAS

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I'm not, for one minute, suggesting that SE France will enjoy 15C Uppers, in January... But, what intrigues me, is that there must be sufficient data for a state-of-the-art NWP to suggest that it might... Hey, ho, model-watching at its best?:drunk-emoji:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Edited by General Cluster
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  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    The Control is out to 228 and continues the general pattern and theme of the 12z's so far.  

    image.thumb.png.d68f97e789845731e52853a243b42954.png

    Will the ECM come along and continue the positivity or throw a spanner in the works????

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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