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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Models trending away from a surprise slider snow event for middle of next week, apart from perhaps Lancs/Yorks north - as it's getting close to T0 now it'll be a little bit of a surprise if ECM sticks to its 00Z solution - but it's a period full of surprises!

    What seems more consistent is the trend to the northerly shortly after next weekend.

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    Stopped looking at ECM tonight at 168. It’s one of those times, that no matter what is modelled before day 10, I knew that T+240 would show a Greenland block scenario.  And sure enough I just looked a

    Ok folks a bit of an update from the team over here. Looks like mid -week some severe cold to develop over Central Europe and especially to the NE in Scandi land. The feeling is that with-in the time

    Looking at the Euro4 im not convinced GFS is right even at +48! Note the N,lys over the far N of Scotland and Shetland islands. Ridge of high pressure extending further S in this model compa

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    GFSP looks unrealistic

    It does look more consistent than the OP though.

    12z

    image.thumb.png.f5e6fde5e33437e4f8cbd53686808db3.png

    6z

    image.thumb.png.0ade561dea6f4dfb771f5de2e08cbac9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

    Yeah.. maybe.. but then we do end up with this at day 9.5 😉

    maybe worthy of gentle boom.. I’m saving the upper cases booming until and if we get to day 4

    image.thumb.png.06bb1bae8f1b90a109ec4e1c4331fbb4.png

    If that's a gentle Boom .....A large Boom would destroy the UK

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    GFSP looks unrealistic

    Cool.. thanks for letting us know.. I’m happy to ignore and go with older sibling dishing out this at day 10

    image.thumb.png.4f3cf52d7c07f8aa32611cf5d3f16fb2.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    Just now, TSNWK said:

    Cool.. thanks for letting us know.. I’m happy to ignore and go with older sibling dishing out this at day 10

    image.thumb.png.4f3cf52d7c07f8aa32611cf5d3f16fb2.png

     

    The low looks too strong. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Imagine if this comes off, Forum overload!! 

    Yes imagine...and that's all I've been doing since just before Xmas, some great looking charts over the last couple of weeks or so but how many of them have actually materialised? (not sure I'll need any fingers to count).

    Just a question if GFS keeps running with this theme with a GHP and trough dropping towards the UK and ECM up to day 10 has none of it can you guess what will happen?

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    If that's a gentle Boom .....A large Boom would destroy the UK

    Oh I want too and I’m sure do others.. needs to be below 100 hundred hours.. 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    7 minutes ago, Griff said:

    So heard good things about the gem of late, here it's against ukmo at 120..

     

    gemnh-0-120.png

    UN120-21.gif

    Here's gfs and p at 120...2009139485_gfsnh-0-120(1).thumb.png.327247f77ebd0f347c9b846ecb473e8d.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.15f8086790bc18beaa369fcf7104f9c0.png

    ECM looks a bit on its own 

    ECH1-120.thumb.gif.59a35f426c003ca1078d790704d45a75.gif

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Wow what a 240 chart!!

    Definitely worthy of a @sheikhy explanation marks

     

    gfsnh-0-240 (3).png

    gfsnh-1-240.png

    Gona wait till that darn 12z ecm before those exclamations come out in full force!!!!!😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    The low looks too strong. 

    Yes not much to fire that up

    image.thumb.png.9cda7f48f7fefed8bdd104a8028a18b8.png

    image.png

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
    8 minutes ago, Griff said:

    So heard good things about the gem of late, here it's against ukmo at 120..

     

    gemnh-0-120.png

    UN120-21.gif

    I heard somewhere a while ago that the GEM was great for forecasting cold solutions and more specifically arctic and northern hemisphere modelling. If I remember rightly it was because its the Canadian model and they needed it to be specifically accurate for cold forecasting etc.  

    Edited by Ventnor Viking
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    If you take the crap cluster out of the 06z ens then the op at d10 was the top cluster as to how the Atlantic evolves (30% region). So no forlorn hope, though the caveat that there was variation within this theme:

    d10 gfs op 12z>gfseu-0-252.thumb.png.e3fa5d9da9e3ca51358f8430f07eef44.png

    It does bring into play the ebb and flow of Iberian heights so not my number one choice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Snowlovers' heaven from the 12Z... And no need for the 'M' word, either!👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Snowlovers' heaven from the 12Z... And no need for the 'M' word, either!👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    That chart would be marginal on the east coast

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Well the MetOffice are going for southerly tracking lows as we enter the second half of January and the GFS has been pretty bullish with this idea for the past few days. 

    image.thumb.png.6db6d824fbb3bdb6baf5eb22416663b9.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Couldn’t of drawn the m4 better if it had tried. 😩😩🤣

    ABE0DD31-7AEF-4895-AFC5-1432EBDEC755.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Couldn’t of drawn the m4 better if it had tried. 😩😩🤣

    ABE0DD31-7AEF-4895-AFC5-1432EBDEC755.png

    The South couldn’t handle even an inch of snow, so the weather gods thought bugger  you.

    Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Not a great fan of this pattern needs to all come south a bit, but that would be extremely snowy and disruptive in northern U.K. amazing how far cold troughing extends from Arctic that’s SSW for you.

    9EF45DCD-E5EC-4B35-BF82-3503D122430C.thumb.png.c6bc1826a5307a60ec501fadb8e80b14.png27094F2A-D0F2-4F10-A978-F2E6DB21ACCE.thumb.png.a1e8a7f61c3b1b8cf8eb2e73c64c1b8b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

     Sensational gem! showing the black hole,its been a while,coldest air over Ne scandi for years,trying to get here it looks like,not marginal,even if your on the East coast,🙄be ice-floes in their ,if that air makes it🥶

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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