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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ve always championed it, as you say it verifies very well and often above GFS. We also get to see all the data , eg precip charts so I’ve always wondered why it gets ignored in favour of GFS and often just get laughed at when posted.  

Historically (until an upgrade maybe 2 years ago) it has verified poorly, there's a reputation overhang in the amatuur community. 

The JMA is similar although the Met Office do actually rate it.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
36 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ye i did say earlier the ecm might have gone off on one with the generous snow amounts for midweek aswell!!!

The snowfall from the ec 00z looked a lot more than would have settled as higher Dp’s followed the initial few hours and then there was some back edge stuff late on as it slipped south - better further northeast 

31 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM (CMC) is also outperforming both GFS GFSp and UKMO! It still doesn’t get much airtime on here though ??‍♂️

Because it goes to 10 days and drops off it’s not considered to be accurate - the stats show at day 5 it’s pretty good.  My experience on it is knowing when to ignore it and when to wonder if it might be into something. 

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Historically (until an upgrade maybe 2 years ago) it has verified poorly, there's a reputation overhang in the amatuur community. 

The JMA is similar although the Met Office do actually rate it.

Do we know if jma is still rated ?  This info was many years ago ....

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
46 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:


Looking good. Netweather has the most visually readable GEFS ensembles graph, but when are they going to start showing the full 30-set not just 20?

The Wetter ones are good as well and show all 30, plus I like having the 81-2000 mean on there as it gives you an idea of where we are vs the average. 
 

if you choose white background they are similar to the NW ones

3435CE1D-B800-426B-A6A1-8F87B9C1F2F3.thumb.png.54e293c062bb5a42827219dedcad6c34.png

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Forecasted Temp 850hPa & Precipitation from GFS, 06Z

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
2 hours ago, AdrianHull said:

Doesn't snow unfortunately on Neptune... just rains diamonds (fact)

I imagine the GEM performs well for that location.

Using a combination of useless long range modelling and only marginally better human input from experience,  I would say final third of January is trending cold, although perhaps not consistently cold through the whole period.

 

Edited by Stu_London
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff

Thats all the mild you’re getting.  3 days of 5 Celsius uppers.  Look how many are now getting on the right side of that black line and some are keeping it cold for the forseeable.......

BFD44388-6167-463D-B52B-04AFF45D6F98.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

I think I love you. ❤️

Thanks as always, I really enjoying reading these updates nice and clear language and no mention of Mountain Torque!  

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
5 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I am really annoyed about UKMO for couple of days now.It just refuses to drop the trough south at 96h. Basically not a single member of EPS or GEFS have this scenario.And then comes Icon 6Z and follows UKMO. If All those frigid EC runs X6 in a row fail to materialize for Central Europe I give Up on Weather models. Today I took my dog to local mountains to altitude of 1291m. A short video of what awaited me there,wait for it after 1 minute❤️

 

 

Thanks for sharing, so stunning and beautiful

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Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
8 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I am really annoyed about UKMO for couple of days now.It just refuses to drop the trough south at 96h. Basically not a single member of EPS or GEFS have this scenario.And then comes Icon 6Z and follows UKMO. If All those frigid EC runs X6 in a row fail to materialize for Central Europe I give Up on Weather models. Today I took my dog to local mountains to altitude of 1291m. A short video of what awaited me there,wait for it after 1 minute❤️

 

Don't you worry, jules. I'm pretty sure that downgrades of that cold for Central Europe are behind the corner. EC op doesn't really have support for those frigid runs. It will get cold but I doubt that much.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Thanks for sharing, so stunning and beautiful

When the forest opened that little gap to me I was looking for my jaw in a feet deep snow believe me it dropped instantly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Still can't believe the lack of agreement just for early next week. These are the latest 850 hpa temps for Scunthorpe from the last 4 GFS runs

12z.thumb.png.b5bd7b54e72516eb502bb92fd43a482a.png

18z.thumb.png.da80d6a8b122e24cb4bd539406bf542c.png

00z.thumb.png.5fe5a97de3bbd38603efb80301baecfb.png

06z.thumb.png.1b0579f2ed124920e7650154cf570eaa.png

Still some scatter present just for around the 13th to 15th. After this the expected scatter there but overall all 4 runs seem to agree on a below average mean with the white line generally underneath the red one from around the 16th onwards

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

Don't you worry, jules. I'm pretty sure that downgrades of that cold for Central Europe are behind the corner. EC op doesn't really have support for those frigid runs. It will get cold but I doubt that much.

Yes but come on EC goes -14 uppers and UKMO -6,surely we cant go UKMO route. Isnt EC 0Z best verifying run at day 6? Or are we cursed then?Never used to be problem getting cold to central Europe.Only since I returned home in Dec2018

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Just now, Ice Day said:

I'm sitting here on my laptop with tabs open on the GFS, GFSP, GFS Control and UKMO.  Quick question, am I normal?

Anyway, onto the models,  these were the GEFS from the 6z so we can look at trends from the 12z a bit later.

image.thumb.png.f955ac7e9b9a4a70a674ce2e3de850e7.png

 

Thank you for adding this. May you provide a link for this so I can access for the future? Thank you! 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
3 minutes ago, CSC said:

Thank you for adding this. May you provide a link for this so I can access for the future? Thank you! 

Here you go

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Diagrammes des ensembles GEFS de la NOAA (graphes ENS GFS). 21 scénarios de GEFS.

Just click on your location and you're good to go!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
40 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The Wstly momentum being squeezed at 30/40N, courtesy of Matt H...things looking good for blocking scenarios..

Lots of 6Z ens are going colder...I think the fun and games will begin towards mid week,with further enhancements towards next weekend..Fingers crossed guys.

ErTEtWbXUAEccCH.png

gens-0-0-288.png

gens-0-1-276.png

gens-1-1-264.png

gens-1-0-300.png

gens-3-1-288 (1).png

gens-3-0-288 (1).png

gens-5-0-324.png

gens-5-1-312.png

gens-7-1-384.png

gens-11-0-348.png

AggravatingEnlightenedHorseshoecrab-small.gif

All by himself? image.thumb.png.a9e29c780c13d468dbba7e9163559371.png

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Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
11 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Yes but come on EC goes -14 uppers and UKMO -6,surely we cant go UKMO route. Isnt EC 0Z best verifying run at day 6? Or are we cursed then?Never used to be problem getting cold to central Europe.Only since I returned home in Dec2018

Let's hope we can't but there are few GEFS which are similar for 15th in terms of uppers.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Are the models slowing coming around to the MetO's way of thinking: a warm-up, however brief, now looking more likely?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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