Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[IDO]

The short ens for the next 7-days for London suggests average to just below with nominal chances of snow:

A clear split by d4 so anything that follows will have less verification, suite wise.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

Looking at the Euro4 im not convinced GFS is right even at +48!

Note the N,lys over the far N of Scotland and Shetland islands. Ridge of high pressure extending further S in this model compared to others.

Hey Teits...you have made my day.. I mentioned you in my Christmas post,when I was hoping all those who had been missing for a long time would read that message and hopefully return...I had heard you had been unwell mate...im glad your back posting and wish you all the best.

Looking at the output there is most definitely some drama..Next week is gonna be tricky to start...yes milder in the South...but for how long? Then we have a frontal system moving in around mid week...this could bring snow as it slows down,especially towards the North...but we have been here before,there could be corrections further South. John Hammond of weather Trending points out in his Blog that the coming weeks are gonna be a nightmare for forecasters..And of the models that were,and are predicting milder times,he thinks the idea seems a little far fetched with how things are playing out this year..We still look primed fro Blocking episodes for some time and with further warming of the strat next week,we could be looking at even more model chaos. To sum up,things look much better than they have done for some time regarding recent Winters.

And just to finish...anymore of the old guard posters who have gone missing...please drop in a post and let us know your OK...the old uns are always the best

Edited January 9, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[stratty]

Just been reliving the winter of 81/82 through the archive charts  -  the winter that got me hooked on my fascination of the weather! There are many charts now (admittedly at least a week away still.....) that are very similar to some major cold and snowy blizzards from this time. Would be amazing to see something like this again actually happen for real! Take care all  

[Tim Bland]

13 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Para for the last few runs delivering blizzards to the south... 

Trend? 

 

Would be one for the history books!!!

[stewfox]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Micro analysis more than five days out  means you’ve really nothing better to be doing .....

 

 

???? Nope

Well its national lock down and I put my bins out and if Derbyshire police allow it, . I'll wait to Wednesday to get them back in, something to look forward to.  Although given I have another bin it might be deemed as non essential travel

The GFS is throwing some nice permutations in FI , wont happen like this of course but Ill spend the next 6 hours putting wiggly lines all over it 

 

 

[ALL ABOARD]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Would be one for the history books!!!

It would continue to line them up as well... Next one incoming haha. 

Blizzards galore. 

[Anthony Burden]

16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey Teits...you have made my day.. I mentioned you in my Christmas post,when I was hoping all those who had been missing for a long time would read that message and hopefully return...I had heard you had been unwell mate...im glad your back posting and wish you all the best.

Looking at the output there is most definitely some drama..Next week is gonna be tricky to start...yes milder in the South...but for how long? Then we have a frontal system moving in around mid week...this could bring snow as it slows down,especially towards the North...but we have been here before,there could be corrections further South. John Hammond of weather Trending points out in his Blog that the coming weeks are gonna be a nightmare for forecasters..And of the models that were,and are predicting milder times,he thinks the idea seems a little far fetched with how things are playing out this year..We still look primed fro Blocking episodes for some time and with further warming of the strat next week,we could be looking at even more model chaos. To sum up,things look much better than they have done for some time regarding recent Winters.

And just to finish...anymore of the old guard posters who have gone missing...please drop in a post and let us know your OK...the old uns are always the best

Absolutely great read to the point and in my opinion correct.

[offerman]

Lovely long term charts this morning but I feel it's a little too far out at present. Wait for the 5/6 day timeframe before becoming over excited as often this far out we just get let down. All is not lost of course but don't get too excited yet..........

Edited January 9, 2021 by offerman

[IDO]

Anything cold pre-d8 is a bonus but we can see the gefs mean uppers that by the 20th, the cold is moving in, with a mean -6c entering N Scotland d12:

This timing has been consistent and of course as a mean we could be forgiven for hoping it is colder than that bearing in mind this is the gefs suite? Just a case of counting this down to the reliable.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Models are really struggling with the upcoming scenarios of our future weather in the days ahead. This is not a normal default British Winter where the Atlantic is in charge and fair to say when models have this situation they model well. But different times this Winter and models will really struggle as always with a blocking pattern . The only clear trend I can see that the models are in agreement of some bitter deep cold developing to the north and east over the coming days. I think it's a matter of not If but When the UK can tap into that deep cold. It could be very soon ,or we might have to wait a while. But expect some very interesting charts in the days ahead....Enjoy the Winter Roller coaster the Ride has only just begun..........!

[Battleground Snow]

Some great posts as usual this morning.

GFS mean at 240 still good. 850mb temps trending down long term too 

Whether the low in the Atlantic cuts off or not may not affect the overall longwave pattern at 144-168, but it will give us a more robust block into Greenland if it happens.

 

[winterof79]

The overwhelming trend is for cold to begin to spill out through Scandanavia around the 19th/20th. I cant remember such agreement .

If this continues on the 12zs I'm raising more than an eyebrow.

Moyennes at 240z are ......well.....nuts

ECM

GEFS

GEM

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by winterof79

[Guest]

Certainly a trend developing with the ECM means and GEFS. The GFS picked up the previous/current cold spell and remained with it quite consistently, this feels similar.

Find out in the next few days to a week...

Edited January 9, 2021 by DCee

[DavidS]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Just for fun...and because I have nothing better to do...shall we start that debate on what a ‘Blizzard ‘ is

If it gives me over 6 inches of lying snow, like that chart does, you can call it whatever you like.

[slater]

47 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Models are really struggling with the upcoming scenarios of our future weather in the days ahead. This is not a normal default British Winter where the Atlantic is in charge and fair to say when models have this situation they model well. But different times this Winter and models will really struggle as always with a blocking pattern . The only clear trend I can see that the models are in agreement of some bitter deep cold developing to the north and east over the coming days. I think it's a matter of not If but When the UK can tap into that deep cold. It could be very soon ,or we might have to wait a while. But expect some very interesting charts in the days ahead....Enjoy the Winter Roller coaster the Ride has only just begun..........!

We will tap into this cold air in March and April , we all know it will happen 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Stu_London said:

thats 2 days later - it was an irony post anyway. + 252 might as well be showing weather patterns on Neptune for all the use there are to us at this very moment in time.

It is actually pretty cold on Neptune too.

As others have mentioned, the GFS // has been quite consistent compared to the current GFS, and is beginning to pull away in the verification stats:

Interesting that during normal times it verified pretty similar, but as the main upgrade is massively increased vertical resolution, you could say it is made for the aftermath of an SSW.

Edited January 9, 2021 by Mike Poole

[sheikhy]

Ecmwf 06z not backing down judging from the pressure chart at 72 hours!!!

[XtremeUKWeather]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Ecmwf 06z not backing down judging from the pressure chart at 72 hours!!!

Is it possible for you to share this

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, slater said:

We will tap into this cold air in March and April , we all know it will happen 

Certainly happened before, and it’s certainly a real possibility.

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecmwf 06z not backing down judging from the pressure chart at 72 hours!!!

I'll wager its exactly the same as 00z

Edited January 9, 2021 by winterof79

[markw2680]

Well my first look at the models today and wow comes to mind.

what on earth have I walked myself into here, just when u thought milder weather and a little break from the models I’m back to square one and very much addicted again.

Do we even think we will get milder? I’m not so sure tbh, we may make a couple of days of slightly milder before winter returns with a vengeance?

keep riding this rollercoaster for a few days to find out.

[AdrianHull]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It is actually pretty cold on Neptune too.

Doesn't snow unfortunately on Neptune... just rains diamonds (fact)

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, AdrianHull said:

Doesn't snow unfortunately on Neptune... just rains diamonds (fact)

 It’s also high pressure dominated!

[slater]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Well my first look at the models today and wow comes to mind.

what on earth have I walked myself into here, just when u thought milder weather and a little break from the models I’m back to square one and very much addicted again.

Do we even think we will get milder? I’m not so sure tbh, we may make a couple of days of slightly milder before winter returns with a vengeance?

keep riding this rollercoaster for a few days to find out.

Same here since last Monday temps for My area been showing 9c for the coming week, now 5c and 6c, no one going to know what’s to happen, look at Madrid today, no one really expected all that snow 

[Bartlett High]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

 It’s also high pressure dominated!

What are the uppers like?